Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Leaving the Door Open

Who’d’ve thunk it? First, actually selling part of its ailing Devon & Cornwall & business. And to Stagecoach, as well.

Of course, this will be subject to the competition authorities giving the all clear and, over the years, Stagecoach hasn’t had a particularly smooth ride in that regard. Plus, of course, the recent report on the bus industry wanted to foster on-street competition, not stunt it. But this is rural England at its worst (from a bus operations perspective). So the sale makes perfect sense because:

  • First Devon & Cornwall again posted losses (of £2.9mil) in its most recent accounts
  • Stagecoach is already established in north Devon
  • The area cannot reasonably sustain two large operators. It’s arguable that the famous north Devon coastal route between Bideford & Barnstaple is already over-bussed.
Sweeping statement, I know, but whatever the competition authorities may think, many bus markets simply cannot sustain head-to-head competition.

Stagecoach is now actually bigger in north Devon, than First. This in itself is surprising, since it was only in autumn 2006 that Stagecoach opened a branch, following First leaving the door open by down-registering. This formed the bedrock upon which Stagecoach developed its own north Devonian commercial services. For every six buses operated by incumbent First, Stagecoach now operates eight and this fact cannot be helping First Devon & Cornwall’s bottom line.

This time last year, Stagecoach rebranded its Bideford/Barnstaple services as The Wave. Though this route between Barnstaple, Bideford and Westward Ho!/Appledore is profitable, its revenue is now split between two. Not for much longer, it seems. Stagecoach currently operates four and First has increased to six journeys per hour. And, before that, there was a succession of competitors in the area, including Filer’s.

I wish I had taken a photograph of early Red Bus buses. Because of their common Western National heritage, the original Red Bus operation was actually green with a “Red Bus” sticker applied. This was in 1983 when, under the National Bus Company, Western National split four ways: Devon General centred on Exeter & the Riviera; Southern National on Taunton & Somerset; the WNOC rump of Cornwall & Plymouth; and a company officially called North Devon Ltd t/a Red Bus. Did I imagine stickers along the side of its green buses that read something like “This is now a Red Bus”?

Apart from Devon General, at the time we never gave these subsidiaries much hope. Red Bus was one of those businesses on a par with Hampshire Bus or so we felt: not enough solid work to offer any sort of resilience. We were wrong about Hampshire Bus, an early acquisition of Stagecoach. Still not sure about Red Bus, though.

North Devon Ltd was one of the last five NBC subsidiaries to pass to private hands. Jointly with Southern National, it passed to its management, in 1988, with a combined fleet of 300. In subsequent years, Southern National’s holding company made several purchases, including Brutoinian and parts of Bere Regis & District. The mini-group sold to First in 1999, the last aquisition before Badgerline’s Trevor Smallwood left, with the former Red Bus operation passing to Devon & Cornwall.

Stagecoach now has an opportunity to consolidate its operations in North Devon and is in a better position to ensure future sustainability. All this because First threw in and then bid too high on Devon tenders in 2006. At least in Cornwall, they’ve recently started to change that strategy.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've heard that this is just the start of some area changes between First and Stagecoach. Possibly Cooks Coaches in Taunton to go from Stagecoach to First?

Anonymous said...

Parallels here with what happened in the North East between Arriva and Go Ahead, perhaps????

Steve said...

Of course, some of FDC's newest buses will go with this sale, leaving an even more decrepit fleet.

I hear all is not well in Cornwall either. The drivers on the new routes will apparently be employed by Truronian on inferior pay and conditions to FDC. There's word of a strike ballot....

Anonymous said...

Fascinating that the original MD of the newly formed Red Bus back in 1983 was Bob Montgomery, now leading the acquisition for Stagecoach.Talk about de ja vous!

Anonymous said...

From what I've seen on visits to Barnstaple over the last 5 years, First has been gradually transfering its newer vehicles out of Barnstaple to areas where there is better opportunity to use them competitively. The case of Yeovil/Wellington is worryingly similar to that in Barnstaple...that Stagecoach 99/A is a pretty impressive service. It would be very neat and logical if there were a transfer of Stagecoach's Somerset work to First - I just don't think that it ia particularly "Stageoach" thing to do...

Anonymous said...

"Who’d’ve thunk it?"

Me, as I predicted on here several weeks ago ;-) Is it really that much of a surprise?

BTW, don't forget that Southern National covered Dorset as well as Taunton and Somerset.

TE3011 said...

First say that “we believe buses are the future” – should they add “in someone else’s hands”?

Anonymous said...

Is there any more sell off planned apart from London? biggest rumour so far is Parts of First Scotland East could end up also being sold off...

I cant see much else being sold off, but would like to know where first could start buying up?

Anonymous said...

I too have heard that things are not well in Cornwall, and that the routes they won, may have been gained at highly unprofitable rates due to a maths error when making the bids for the work ... hence the trying to employ new drivers at low rates and the resultant lack of interest, and threats of industrial action from the union...

There seem to be lots of rumours floating around at the moment about other disposals, and that First are trying to cut their £2billion+ debt levels quickly and by large amounts (hundreds of millions of Pounds).

I think we will see further disposals in the coming months, but I am not brave enough to forecast where the axe will fall next.

Stuart said...

You're not imagining it!

I remember visiting Barnstaple in the 1980s and seeing green ex Western National double deckers with stickers saying "This is now a Red Bus"

It seems I'm not the only one who wondered if a visit to the optician's was needed!

Anonymous said...

Obviously Stagecoach have more confidence in their ability to make money from the area than do First. I wonder just how widely that principle could also apply across the rest of the UK? That would transform travel somewhat.

Now if First were to lose the Great Western franchise,imagine how that could change the dynamics Way out West ?

Anonymous said...

I don't really see that the Great Western comes into it. It is a different business unit.


The bus business is looking at reducing debt so in theory any of the bus business units could go. If the priority is to reduce debt they could sell profitable units as they would raise the most revenues.

If they want to reduce debt and improve operating margins you get rid of loss making and low margin business units.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure that First would sell anything if the *right offer* came along just as Stagecoach did when the London business was sold back in 2006.

Anonymous said...

The trouble is, the kind of operations that First will want to sell off are unlikely to be very attractive for others to buy. I wouldn't be surprised if First's Hereford garage might be sold off...I'm sure Stagecoach could make good use of it...

Anonymous said...

"I too have heard that things are not well in Cornwall, and that the routes they won, may have been gained at highly unprofitable rates due to a maths error when making the bids for the work ... hence the trying to employ new drivers at low rates and the resultant lack of interest, and threats of industrial action from the union..."

Not what I've heard at all, knowing the team who bid for the work the chances of there being a 'maths error' is remote to say the least, why are a small number of people so incredulous that First could actually win work way out west?

I also hear for every new driving job there are at least four applicants including a sizeable number from WG who perhaps see this as the brakes coming on the expansion of recent years?

"There seem to be lots of rumours floating around at the moment about other disposals, and that First are trying to cut their £2billion+ debt levels quickly and by large amounts (hundreds of millions of Pounds)."

Not rumours, more like fact. The Chief Exec has said as much to the City in shareholders briefings and Giles to the trade press.

Anonymous said...

If they want to cut debt quickly the only way is to dispose of profitable business units

Loss making and low margin ones will be difficult to sell in the current market and would not raise much cash

Anonymous said...

First have quite a few moderately profitable operations that they might wish to dispose of, if at all possible.

Hereford has been mentioned and Northampton is regularly quoted - what about South Wales or Eastern Scotland ? That Eastern Counties and Eastern National area is beginning to look a bit fragile as well with so much competition on their doorstep.

Anonymous said...

I suspect the North Devon sale is more about cutting P&L losses and less about raising capital. I doubt the price Stagey are paying is much more than book value of vehicles and other assets. North Devon clearly can't support two major operators and First has blinked first.

The London depots will have much more value; it will be interesting to see how the price paid by GA for Northumberland Park compares with the price Stagey paid McQuarrie for its London depots when they bought them back.

Every asset in any business is available at a price! First's staed strategy is to reduce debt, so the disposals are entirely logical.

My reading of the figures is that GA's debt mountain is proportionately little different to First's. Different business strategy; time will tell which is right!!

Steve said...

"why are a small number of people so incredulous that First could actually win work way out west?"

I wouldn't call much of the industry and most of the population of Cornwall a small number.

Anonymous said...

Seems that First may have only won the work from WG by assuming they could get away with much lower pay rates. Now it seems that the staff may not go along with that idea !!

Perhaps Cornwall will have to retender. At least then WG may get some back at a better margin.

Anonymous said...

Seems that First may have only won the work from WG by assuming they could get away with much lower pay rates. Now it seems that the staff may not go along with that idea !!

Perhaps Cornwall will have to retender. At least then WG may get some back at a better margin.

Eric said...

Re Anonymous @ 19:22 - "what about South Wales"

Judging by First's fleet in South Wales, it's not an area that makes a large profit compared with other areas. It seems to be a retirement home for their aging fleet. Stagecoach has far superior vehicles and operates in my view a better service, yet their services are generally in an economically poorer area.

Suppose First were to dispose of South Wales. I can't see the CC allowing Stagecoach to take over, giving them an almost complete monopoly, bar the municipals in Cardiff and Newport. Who else would be interested? It would be an adventure into unchartered waters for any of the other big companies.

I have a hunch that First would be reluctant to lose any of their South Wales operation, but I live in hope.

Anonymous said...

By the sounds of it First in Cornwall are just adjutsing their cost base, probably to be around the same cost as WG, but not quite that low. For example, at WG you have to supply part of the uniform yourself, and they have very few, if any, fringe benefits. This is the economics of the world, and normal business, nothing specifically to do with First, WG or any other operator ! I say good luck to First with their new work. Tendered work comes and goes between operators - thats what the competitive tendering process was designed to deliver under the 1985 Transport Act !

Anonymous said...

LETS LOOK BACK:

* Chester,
* Northampton,
* Midland Red,
* Devon & Cornwall
* FIRST Edinburgh

All those companies have made losses in the last year, I get the feeling all shall continual to do so this year. Yet First has sold of part of one....

One of Stagecoach profitable are is Midland red south, so what are there doing right?

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know for sure whether Bude is included in the sale?

Anonymous said...

It's all very well commentators lining up for sale operations that make little or no money and bemoaning the age of some fleets but as long as First steadfastly refuses to sell vehicles on the second-hand market, it obviously has to run older vehicles somewhere. Sell these operations and what then does First do with its older stock?

Anonymous said...

Yes Bude, which is a outstation of Barnstaple, in included in the sale, so the X9 from Bude to Exeter, will pass to Stagecoach.

Anonymous said...

Anon 0954:

Send them for scrap, surely?

Anonymous said...

Anon 14:54 - yes, indeed but the point I was trying to make was that if First didn't have the likes of South Wales, Devon & Cornwall, Eastern Counties etc, then their more profitable fleets will be forced to run a greater proportion of older vehicles as there will be fewer places to cascade them out to. Unless they scrap them before they're life-expired, of course!

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 13:56 - is this confirmed for definite?
The rumours I'm hearing say otherwise - that the X9 is going back to Plymouth's control.

Anonymous said...

Hmm none of the press releases make any mention of Bude!

Anonymous said...

Re, Bude going to first, this is off the First devin and cornwall website: The North Devon business comprises of around 100 staff members, a fleet of around 30 vehicles and ten routes (Services 1, 2, 3, 5/5C, 8 (operates summer only) 30/30C, 31, 32, X7 and X9).
The depot facility in Barnstaple

The sale does not affect any other part of the First Devon and Cornwall business.

Anonymous said...

apologies for the spelling of Devon! Also the other route operated by First in Bude, the 128 Bude Town Service had already been won by Stagecoach in the latest tenders.

Anonymous said...

i spoke to a driver in bude and he was looking forward to stagecoach taking over, because stagecoach have won 4 new routes in bude area, from first and WG (i don't know which)so he felt he had more job security.

Anonymous said...

It would not suprise me if the next one togo will be First Northampton,the company now has only six routes with Stagecoach now being the biggest operator in the town - a possible sell out to Stagecoach in the pipeline me thinks.