Short Term Losses

I count things. Some things are important and fundamental (e.g. performance indicators such as cost indices, passenger trends). Others simply important but interesting and meritorious of attention (e.g. the number of visitors to this blog).

I was therefore quite interested to see what effect, if any, yesterday’s royal wedding had on Omnibuses, what with a bank holiday, the nation glued to its tellies, reasonable weather I think across the nation, street parties, bbqs and whatnot. How did Omnibuses perform?

I have therefore quickly compared visitors yesterday with the average footfall over each of the preceding 16 Fridays since the first in 2011 (Friday 7th January).

Yesterday’s patronage was the lowest of any of the aforesaid Fridays. Visitor numbers were actually 16 per cent below the average. Given yesterday’s distractions, I consider that quite good.

The next and most essential question is, how many were on the buses yesterday. The answer to that will become more evident early next week.

Concluding

There’s optimism at last that the world’s longest running busway/saga/joke (delete as appropriate) might actually be operational this summer, possibly as “early” as August. Foot dragging BAM Nuttall has handed the project over Cambridgeshire council. There follows a 28 day snagging period (sic) followed by testing. An August launch will be over two years late, thanks to BAM Nuttall.

It’s a sobering thought that the process started 10 years ago with the Cambridge to Huntingdon Multi-Modal Study, recommending widening of the A14 road and building of a guided busway. Thousands of objectors wanted a railway instead. Let’s not forget that this is a victory for the bus service and trust that BRT can show the world just what you can do with dedicated roadspace.

Putting the process into context, it’s also a sobering thought that it was 10 years ago that prince William met the person who today becomes his wife. Unless anyone can raise just cause. 2011 is certainly a momentous year, then, with two long running epics concluding, both with hope for the future. Kate is in good company. Perhaps this August she’ll be asked to cut the ribbon or dash a bottle of champagne against a two year old busway-specified Stagecaoch Scania N230UD/ADL E400.

Two of these so-called limited edition Oysters will go to the happy couple. Any chance they’ll get used? That leaves 749,998 for the rest of us...

A cast iron guarantee? Today on the Dorset Bus Blog

Modernisation

90-vehicle Newport Bus, Wales, has a “new” managing director. His official task? To modernise the undertaking.

After a hiccup with a static “coming soon” landing page, the revised Newport Bus website is now live. It follows Yellow Buses’ lead with a local journey planner

The last time Newport Transport used the word “Modernise” it was in the context of a massive fleet renewal that by the mid-1970s saw no bus older than 10 years. It swept aside a legacy of rear loaders, some with bodywork from an arcane builder. Incoming were the regular crop of Atlanteans preceded by a handful of ‘open-market’ Bristol RESLs. Most surprisingly, though, were more than 40 Metro Scanias. Newport amassed Britain’s largest fleet of these sometimes irritable single decks. Three years later, there followed 10 Scania Metropolitan double decks. After a gap, Scanias again make up the bulk of the fleet, though today’s models are somewhat more dependable. Some controversy surrounded the 18-month late arrival of six new MAN/Wrightbus Meridians.

These days, the term “modernise” has a far different connotation to that in 1970s Newport. To modernise goes way beyond bringing something up-to-date. It means to revolutionise. It’s often a substitute for a hatchet-job. Since joining Newport Bus in January 2010 as delivery director, the new MD has from April 2010 modernised Newport Bus’ branding & livery, introducing a somewhat esoteric logo, but also introduced a series of cost-cutting measures. No matter the industry, this is a near universal synonym for “modernising”.

Wales’s regional assembly has recently published a suite of information on its bus services. In south east Wales, Newport Bus came lowest among those who were “very satisfied”. A case for modernisation?

This is Newport Bus’ third MD in as many years. Trevor Roberts left in June 2009 for a similar position at Blackpool Transport, where modernisation has resulted in cuts and a change of focus away from the Metro Coastlines sub-brands to an overall fleet livery. Upon appointment, Roberts inherited an atrophied, static network and a considerable honeypot of oldies devastatingly wielding their free passes. Not a comfortable position. Within six months, there followed the equally uncomfortable national spotlight owing to the suspension of two overweight drivers, thanks to a risk assessment that revealed, not for the first time in England, that cab seats might not withstand larger employees.

Roberts was replaced at Newport Bus by then delivery director Chris Blyth who resigned in December 2010 under what officially remains a mystery.

Raising the Profile

Another award for Brighton and a feather in the cap for Brighton’s energetic busman. Awards keep tumbling Brighton’s way. Will they ever cease so that the rest of us have a chance? At the Oscars Brighton & Hove won the city bus operator of the year in 2010, the same award in 2009 plus adding overall bus operator of the year. And the list goes one.

This time, though, it’s not quite as it seems for it’s not Roger French but Tim Druitt of The Big Lemon who’s taken the honours. With its eclectic fleet of elderly step entrance vehicles, cooking waste fuel and community interest company, The BL has won the “EU Urban Network of Social Enterprises ‘Ethiconomy’ award for projects with social and environmental benefits”. Typically of European projects, the title’s certainly full size.

Druitt can now add international recognition to the large numbers of Brighton people said to support his survival campaign. For The BL already acknowledges that its services are “under threat due to targeted competition from the main competitor, who has recently reduced fares on competing services, whilst running many many more buses.”

The BL’s view of the world is that it has competed with B&H in “a spirit of fair and friendly competition since we started”. B&H might feel differently, though French has always been careful to welcome competition.

B&H has now reduced its fares to The BL’s level. “This policy is jeopardising the future of [the Lemon] service because there are many more of our competitor’s buses.” I wonder what Lemon expected. B&H has already given Lemon considerable grace. As is so often the case, the newcomer feels that it has a right to attack its incumbent without being touched by it.

Perhaps The BL’s award may help raise its David-like profile against its neighbouring Goliath. But, so long as fares remain the same, we suspect that passengers will continue to get on the first bus that comes. Always supposing, of course, that B&H is competing fairly & legally and not losing money in an action that amounts to predation. That would be a kind of perdition.

Fairly and legally. That’s a matter for the competition authorities though in spite of its best efforts, The BL has been unable to garner the support of the OFT. The OFT points to Competition Commission inquiry into the bus industry. Will this be a panacea for Lemon? And by the time it’s *fully* published—a Christmas present in 2011 though provisional findings are due this month (!)—one of the two Brighton operators may even be out of business.

i Save The Big Lemon

Superbus

Arriva Shires & Essex has resurrected the Superbus brand name. In 2007, we felt that Superbus was one of the industry’s top seven liveries. But if you expect to see the yellow & blue of old, please think again.

Readers who are that bit older might remember Superbus. 40 years ago almost to the day, it started when London Country was in its infancy. With equal funding from the Department of the Environment and Stevenage’s Development Corporation, the idea was to up frequencies significantly as an alternative to mass car ownership and road building. There was a parallel though different experiment in Runcorn new town.

London Country out-shopped two Metro Scanias, some Leyland Nationals and some of its inherited London Transport AEC Swifts in a pleasant and distinctive yellow and blue Superbus livery, with large stylised joined-at-the-top “SB” logos. It renumbered routes as SB1, SB2, etc though the initial, single 1971 route coinciding with new London overspill housing development to Chells was unnumbered, before becoming SB1.

Was this the first large scale example of a dedicated & separate local livery, without reference other than on the legals to the actual operator?

£1.20 is a great fare (and here I assume that it relates to the equivalent per day cost of a season). A sobering thought, though, is that the original flat SB fare of single 6p is equivalent to about 65p today. Hopper technology and no ticket issued back then, either

In relaunching SB in Stevenage, Arriva makes great play of reverting to what some might feel was a golden era. “On 27th March the Stevenage town network of bus services are re-launched as the SB network. For many of you this will be renaming routes as they used to be.”

Arriva hasn’t chosen to go back to yellow & blue, though. Five or so years after London Country launched SB, green single and double decks had already diluted the brand, in any case. And, by 1980, SB converted itself into plain “Stevenage Bus” amid accusations that estates such as Chells benefited from a somehow superior bus service.

In running the story, the local media managed to confuse Arriva with Aviva!

In relaunching its Stevenage bus network, Arriva has added large “SB” roundels to the side of its fleet, in orange rather than yellow.

• In capitalising on SB, might the impact have been higher had they chosen a non-Arriva livery, like an updated SB of old?


• Is there benefit of going back in time to capitalise partly on nostalgia or is such a move seen as retrograde? Younger people won’t have a clue and will older people be that impressed?


• What goes around comes around? Shades of MAP names perhaps?


• Can you successfully mix ’n match brands like this? Stagecoach does it well. Could Arriva?


• Are there sufficient other changes to make this worthwhile?
  

i Arriva has a potted history of Superbus on its website

Easter Day

Happy Easter from Omnibuses.

Impressive temperatures. Chaotic traffic. Crowded beaches. Bournemouth sizzles. Redolent of Easters past, pre-1970s, pre-Benidorm and pre-Costa Brava. And conditions look set fair for today. Better get my towel on the beach early, then. Erm...

The last few Easters haven’t been at all bad but this year’s been exceptional, thus far. A later Easter helps, the latest I recall, I think.

Get there early...

Bournemouth’s buses have been bursting, too. But this holiday pattern of demand is unlikely to be repeated throughout the land. Today, Easter Day, can be the quietest Sunday of all, especially when weighed against generally better Sunday frequencies over the last few years. Such improvements are directly linked with the Sunday shopping bonanza. Indeed, daylight demand on Sundays can even outstrip that on Saturdays, a day somewhat in decline on the buses.

But Easter Day’s often different:

• Easter Day sees shops of any size closed


• Anyone who might return after a weekend will be travelling tomorrow, Monday, not today


• There are those who’ve left the country altogether for a holiday (bad choice, in view of the English weather)


• And as the rest of England seems drawn to the coast*, there’s probably very few left elsewhere to catch the bus, even if they wanted to

I wonder what will happen on Friday, the day of THAT wedding. It’s normal trading in most large stores, yet morning bus demand will probably be non-existent as we either watch the ceremony or stay under the duvet to pretend it isn’t happening.

*—100,000 of them were on Bournemouth’s beach on Good Friday it was reported, often avoided by many of Bournemouth's indigenous population, of course

Into the Valley

It may be too soon to attribute First Cymru’s planned June expansion to the recently announced First UK Bus consultation that aims to give local managers more business responsibility. Decentralisation or not, First has varied one service and newly registered another, taking First well outside its comfort zone. It brings First head on with Veolia, Edwards & Stagecoach. Who will react and when? Has First been biding its time, waiting for the inevitable opportunity that looks increasingly certain with the slow death of Veolia Transport Cymru?

This is the South Wales valleys we’re talkin’ about. Life is therefore as complicated and as unintelligible the Skid’s “Into the Valley”, also about war (as far as I can tell). Here’s a summary of what’s occurin’.

• The variation sees an extension of First Cymru’s hourly, two-vehicle, 11-mile service 44 Bridgend, Wales to Talbot Green service. First has registered a further 10 miles beyond Talbot Green to Pontypridd.


• The second is brand new, for First, and sees service 400 operate from Cardiff to Gwaun Miskin. Interestingly, this is registered as “daily”. It goes head-to-head with both Veolia’s 400 and Edwards’s 400E*.

The implications are clear. The longer 44 brings First into direct competition with Stagecoach along the same route. For Stagecoach already operates hourly between Bridgend, Talbot Green & Pontypridd as service 244. Currently, both leave and arrive in Bridgend about 30 minutes apart.

Both the 44 and new 400 compete with Veolia’s 100 between Talbot Green & Pontypridd; and 400 between Tonteg & Beddau (and Cardiff). Plus similar services 100E and 400E* by newcomer Edwards’s. Edwards wanted to get a piece of the action at Veolia’s expense while stepping in before someone else might, e.g. St David’s Travel. Edwards’s 100E “Ponty Dart” service operates up to about three times an hour between Beddau & Llantwit Fadre to Pontypridd.

We understand that First Cymru wants to increase work for its Cardiff base, currently what might be described as a sort-of outstation. First in Cardiff lost work recently, when the Swansea-Cardiff Shuttle 100 was rebranded as Greyhound. Cardiff had previously operated some peak journeys on the former Shuttle. Apart from three tendered services, the Cardiff operation is wholly school bus related so any additional work would help spread the semi-variable overhead.

Meanwhile, against a backdrop of some recent cutbacks in Swansea, First is about to re-introduce a summer open top bus service between Swansea and the Mumbles, taking in the sweep of Swansea Bay. Another example of a local decision at First? Incoming will be a Weymouth VR, no less. Shades of the ex-Eastern National poppy red open top ECW-bodied Bristol KSW half cab of old, perhaps?

All this is a bit of a gamble. Coastal open tops are fickle things, reliant on good weather. Swansea’s directly in line for Atlantic depressions dumping rain as it hits the hilly coastline. And, to me, the Talbot Green/Pontypridd/Cardiff market already looks very crowded, even with commercial evening and Sunday services, and a considerable peak requirement, especially from Edwards’s. Both Veolia and Edwards will neverthelss be chewing their fingernails a bit. And the chances of Stagecoach simply watching from the sidelines must be slim.

*—reminds me of the Ford Thames 400E 12-seat minibus of the 1960s

Mega Mark-up

Now, there’s talk of more sort-of civil disobedience, this time of a bus boycott in the village of Cambourne, 10 miles west of Cambridge.

This results from a decision by Stagecoach to move the goalposts by shrinking the Megarider boundary by about four miles. This means Cambourne can no longer benefit from either Dayrider (£3.40) or Megarider (£12) tickets. Henceforward, passengers must purchase a Dayrider plus (£5.40) or Megarider Plus (£21.50).

No one in Cambourne understands the reason for this considerable hike. Why would they? But £3.40 per day for a 20 miles round trip plus connections into the rest of the Citi network does seem rather generous. Compare it to driving a car, though, and petrol would be a little over £3. Yes, I know that there are other motoring costs but the public doesn’t see it that way. As Adam reports in Comments, this was the result of a developer subsidy that artificially depressed the cost of these tickets, something that has long finished.

No mention anywhere of the presumably lower standard single or return fare for those who do not require Citi connections.

At least Cambourne has an alternative. There are those in the village who are now refusing to use Stagecoach. They’ve voted with their feet, by joining the Whippet service 1. The problem is that Whippet operates seven buses a day Mondays to Saturdays and not from all parts of the village. Stagecoach ’s Citi 4 runs 40 journeys at a 20-minute frequency during the day, hourly in the evening and during daylight hours on Sunday. I doubt Stagecoach will worry unduly. If you want a decent bus service you have to pay for it.

One person stated, “One of my major concerns is that Stagecoach has not consulted… before announcing the price rises.” Operators may choose to consult about service changes but I have never heard of any of them ever consulting over fares. One of the tenets of the Transport Act 1985 is that operators may set their own fares. Even the 1980 Transport Act removed the need to apply to the traffic commissioners for permission to raise fares.

And, as we’ve seen on Omnibuses recently, consultation isn’t always an option for operators. Here, they can’t win. In this case, what would consultation achieve?

Said one Cambourne resident, “I think it is awful that Stagecoach are putting extra financial pressure on people at this time of general hardship”. Yes, it’s also hard for Stagecoach and the bus industry, with £3mil cuts locally in council subsidy, reductions in free travel income and the recession dampening travel demand.

The problem is that changes of Stagecoach’s magnitude disproportionately affect poorer members of society.

My guess is that Stagecoach will simply try to ride the storm on this one. But it may try to find a face-saving solution. Said a seemingly beleaguered manager, “People can vote with their feet, although obviously we wouldn’t be pleased and I can understand the process.”

The following comment was by far the most interesting, though. “I recently moved here, and intended on using the bus service to access Cambridge. However since hearing that the boundary has changed, then this makes the bus expensive for a family of five to visit Cambridge, when it will now be cheaper to drive and pay for parking.”

Yeah, right. I’m sorry, this is nothing to do with any increase in day or weekly ticket prices. I just can’t believe that a family of five would ever entertain using a bus these days, not together.

The Great Good Friday Timetable Gamble

This is a guest post by Invicta.Omnibuses welcome contributions

So, what buses are running in your area tomorrow, Good Friday? Probably not a weekday service, but maybe a Saturday service. Or perhaps a Sunday service, or even that favourite of some bus companies, an “enhanced” Sunday service.

Clear link to Easter bus times straight off the Wilts & Dorset web site...

What’s on offer tends to reflect local custom and practice. The provision of a Sunday timetable, in urban areas at least, seems to hark back to an era when more people lived, worked and shopped locally. In many places, this has long been superseded, with Good Friday now a day of retail therapy, and the more astute operators provide Saturday timetables accordingly.

... but nothing apparent earlier today, Maundy Thursday, neither at Stagecoach South...

But whatever might be running, the bigger question is how to communicate that a different timetable is in place. While it has long been accepted that a holiday Monday equates to a Sunday, weasel phrases such as “Different arrangements apply at Christmas and Easter” leave much scope for confusion.

... nor First Dorset. Is that a Bristol VR I spy?

First, you can be pretty sure that roadside displays of the paper variety won’t be altered to show special details for Good Friday. It might even be hit and miss on electronic displays: the amount of time needed to alter information for a day may be deemed to be excessive, especially if it has only been provided at short notice.

In spite of the link from W&D (and Bluestar), nothing obvious at Southern Vectis...

And well it might have been, for the registration period for service changes on weeks including “24 and 25 December, Good Friday or any bank holiday” (to quote VOSA) is just 21 days—an unaltered piece of regulation from the earliest days of deregulated services, when it represented half the normal notice period.

... while Yellow Buses has a small link but refers to the royal wedding, too

In those days, it was often possible to ask in person at an enquiry office, or telephone the local depot. Now, there are far fewer outlets for paper timetables. Phones are answered in a call centre and the web has become the be-all-and-end-all for this one-day change. But a quick survey of several major operators’ websites found some had only added (sketchy) information with just a week to go (as I write this), while few of the buses I’ve travelled on last week have yielded any details either.

It looks like the great Good Friday timetable gamble is still with us.

Timetable Presentation

A couple arrived at my bus stop the other day just in time to see the back of their service depart. When they’d calmed down, I was able to tell them that the bus had departed on time and not early (as they had assumed). Unless they wished to pay again on another operator’s service, the next bus would be with them in 15 minutes’ time.

You and I take this piece of information for granted. The couple had no timetable and my guess was had they looked at one or the bus stop information they would’ve been dumbfounded. They certainly struggled to add 15 minutes to the current time. After some glancing at their watches and nervously looking around, I told them when their next bus was due. I have no idea whether it arrived on time for, by then, I had disappeared on my own bus.

This got me thinking. Most timetables these days display frequency information in a format that in my opinion is good practice:

Some timetables take a different view and express frequency something like “then every 15 minutes until” without spelling out individual stop times. This might be company practice, a space saver, or even a time saver for the traffic/commercial office.

This sort of display, in my view, is acceptable where there’s an hourly service or for a bus at 10 minute intervals. Both are easy for the passenger to work out. Anything less than every 10 minutes probably doesn’t need a timetable in any case.

It’s less likely to impress when the service operates every 12, 15 or 20 (or even 40) minutes. “And every 12 minutes” doesn’t quite do it, unless accompanied by actual times past each hour. This is a considerable help to passengers.

The exception to the easy-to-understand “every 10 minutes until” rule, though, must be Winchester’s Switch 5 that cycles through three different 10-minute frequencies. This looks off-putting, even though the gaps between the 10-minute frequencies are *less* than a 10 minute interval.

I wonder what my couple who missed their bus would’ve made of this. A service at the sort of frequency where you don’t need a timetable? Or one that’s just too confusing to bother with?

• Is it ever acceptable to say “then every 15 minutes until” on its own by omitting individual standard pattern times?

Keeping it Simple

This is a guest post by Buses in the Blood. Omnibuses welcome contributions

The question of English national concessionary fare scheme seems to be raised quite frequently and I suspect most established operators (i.e. those in business before the scheme was introduced) found it difficult to adjust to. This was partly because there was little consultations beforehand.

A number of Omnibuses readers seem to have forgotten how, ideally, the scheme is supposed to work. Here’s my take on this. It’s a very simplistic calculation so please consider the whole calculation before throwing up your arms. The figures are meant to illustrate a point.

Our hypothetical service carries 100 passengers at £1.00 per head, earning the company £100.00. Of these, 50 are seniors and 50 pay full fare.

The theory is, if seniors now get free travel, more will travel (or travel more frequently), so the 50 senior journeys will now become 80 journeys (the generation factor).

The full fare paying passengers still produce £50.00 for the company which means, to be no worse and no better off, the company has to earn £50.00 from the 80 senior journeys. The mathematics of this very simple equation are that the council would have to reimburse the operator at 62.5p for him to earn his pre-concessionary revenue of £100.00 (80 seniors x £0.625).

Now, some of you will be ahead of me because the world is not this ideal and no two services are the same. What if extra traffic were not generated? On a sparsely populated route all the seniors wishing to use the service might already being doing so. Or what if too much extra traffic was created on a route without sufficient extra capacity, such as a route popular with tourists.

And then should each route be considered in isolation? Companies offer discounted day-out tickets but how many apportion the revenue to specific routes. Indeed, is it possible?

But the fact is that in our over-simplified case the operator would like £1 from each passenger but the reimbursing authority believes it has a case to justify only paying out 62.5p.

No Choice ?

Possibly to the relief of many people throughout Bournemouth & Bath, RATP Dev UK has publicly stated it has no plans to make the mistakes of Veolia and act in a domineering fashion towards its two provincial operators. No standard liveries that obliterate local identities and no high diktat from Paris.

But such an announcement is somewhat inconsequential as things stand. For one thing, RATP cannot change the current style of its 30-vehicle Bath Bus Co subsidiary, whether operating and Bath or elsewhere. This is locked down by City Sightseeing. No chance of anything radical there.

With its 120-vehicle Bournemouth operation, the sale agreement with Transdev, still valid, requires the maintenance of a yellow livery. No chance of anything radical there.

As things used to be with a little grey & white. Notice the more subtle addition of an old Transdev style under the cab window and to the left of the nearside headlamp

London United accounts for 900 of the 1,050-strong RATP fleet, or 85 per cent. From 2006, Transdev imposed its own image on the fleet by dropping the London United name. Now, RATP is saying that buses will again carry London United as RATP hands back that that brand to its London operation. And so it may but will anyone really notice? Individual branding in London is somewhat meaningless as TfL looks after all of that. Passengers no more care about who operates their bus than who operates London Waterloo station. No chance of anything radical there, either.

Deal or no Deal?

Under the masthead of yesterday’s Daily Telegraph it stated, “A free box of chocolates worth £6.50”. Not a bad investment. The main front-page headline read, “No bar to throne for Kate’s first born girl”. What a delicious pun. Chocolate box and bar. Geddit?

Obviously, the Telegraph knows something not even Price William knows. And, later on, the Telegrpah claims to know quite a lot about Elliott Advisors’ intentions for the National Express Group. Indeed, page 31 was similarly full of puns, such as the immediate post-2009 debacle period where, “Suddenly, the must-see drama became as much fun as stripping a bus engine on a Saturday night.”

Elliott’s view? Find a buyer; or refocus on America; or split up and sell.

Waiting in the wings is Brian Souter. If he’s quick, he may get in before someone snaps up Stagecoach itself, someone like ComfortDelGro, perhaps. Leaving aside its American & Spanish businesses and what’s left of National Express rail, the jewel for Souter has always been National Express West Midlands. This is a significant cash generator.

The impression you get of NXWM is of a slightly uncomfortable and sleeping giant. It has the potential to be highly profitable. Indeed, it once was, as England’s best performing larger operator. But that was more than a decade ago.

Perhaps symptomatic of problems at NXWM was the recent revelation that it carried a huge and unwarranted spares overhead. It has treated that problem, cascading surplus stock onto an expectant second hand market. Now, NEG UK Bus margins were up in 2010 from seven to 11 per cent but Souter would probably be able to wring out much more.

In an unusually lengthy financial analysis in Friday’s Passenger Transport, Chris Cheek summed things up with, “If large holding companies are to justify their existence in running local transport businesses, they must do so by building strong balance sheets, developing management expertise to assist local staff, and generally adding value to the businesses they own. NEG does not convince that it does any of these at present”.

This reflects Elliott’s concerns. The Telegraph urges NEG investors to think carefully before acceding to Elliott’s plea. Elliott is after a quick buck, they say. Who knows exactly who knows best. Souter has a good track record. Yet, it certainly seemed a good deal buying the Telegraph yesterday. £1.90 invested for £6.50-worth of chocolate can’t be a bad rate of return especially when I would’ve bought it anyway. Only snag, there’s no Hotel Chocolat store immediately locally to make the redemption… A bus service, for example, would be handy.

Green for Go

You really know that the world has changed when you hear that First is prepared to do a rare thing and sell part of its business to a local competitor. In this case, announced yesterday was the divestment of local services in and around King’s Lynn. The beneficiary is the award winning Norfolk Green.

Time was when First clung limpet-like to its floundering & drifting operations. You sensed that First was more interested in territory than turning a profit. Rather than release a troubled operation, you felt that First preferred retrenchment from within. The result in Cornwall, for example, is a withering and weakening to the point where the operational base becomes so eroded that there are few services left to support the overhead. It seemed it was a matter of high principle that operations bought & brought into the fold should never be allowed to leave. It was a little like Hotel California without the thriving, high-living American hedonism.

There are plenty of stronger First subsidiaries around that can pass muster. There are also some problems. First blames free travel reimbursement rates, BSOG and subsidy levels rates for its Norfolk decision. This is as true for Norfolk Green as it is for First. The casual reader glancing at the joint press release might wonder why such problems are exclusive to First and not Norfolk Green. How can Norfolk Green make this work if its larger neighbour cannot? Norfolk Green is probably prepared accept lower margins, is free of the corporate straight jacket and will concentrate more of a resource on business growth.

First will retain a presence in the town to help service and develop its successful Excel X1 Peterborough to Lowestoft regional express.

It will be interesting to see how Norfolk Green begins to re-develop the languished bus market left by First. I suspect that if we were to come back to this in two years hence we’d see something very different. If that’s the case, there will definitely be lessons for other struggling operations throughout First’s patch. Post-Lockhead First should be commended for going for the Green option.

No Smoke without Fire?

Update 16 April 2011: the Daily Mail points to ComfortDelGro as a suitor for Souter. Little known outside London, ComfortDelGro has ambitions to expand in the UK. By buying Stagecoach, that goal would be realised and some. In Scotland, there has already been a partnership with Stagecoach in the operation of Scottish Citylink.

Reports in today’s Independent that either Deutsche Bahn (or an unnamed Hong Kong group) might be making an offer for Stagecoach seem like a late April Fool. In fairness to the Independent, they did call the rumours “vague”. Who knows what’s true and what isn’t but the stock market flourishes on speculation of this nature and it sent Stagecoach’s shares surging up 11p.

It wasn’t that long ago—two months back, in fact—that owners of 16 per cent of National Express Group, US hedge fund Elliott Management, was trying to force NEG to sell itself. Speculation at the time resulted in conjecture, once again, that there might be a NEG/Stagecoach tie-up.

This in spite of a significant recent reversal in NEG’s parlous fortunes. Subsequently, though, the group failed even to get on the shortlist for its existing Great Anglian franchise, putting in doubt its position as a rail operator.

But what of a DB takeover of Stagecoach? Stagecoach has just about leapfrogged First as the UK’s largest bus operator, following Stagecoach’s London buy back. If DB were to add Stagecoach, it would create a bus operator of such a size as to be incomparable. For, as we know, DB owns Arriva. Herein lies the problem—market share & dominance. And it would pass a significant slice of the industry back into indirect government hands though not Westminster’s. Post Cadbury this might cause some concern among politicians.

Is Brian up for selling? His astute business instincts will mean that he will do what’s best for Brian and his business.

i Independent article

Celebrations now Over?

Is the party over in Preston? Unfortunate it is that after only six weeks of celebrating the return of a uniquely Prestonian bus operator, residents find Rotala has taken off the shine and upped its fares. There’s already calls of nasty profiteering.

All obstacles in the way of Preston Bus Station’s demolition, where the Omnibuses’ Northern Correspondent took this shot, are now cleared

Hot on the heels of an adult single 10p increase in September, Preston Bus put on another 10p this week. The total equates to a 20 per cent increase. Preston Bus upped monthly passes by a similar rate. They are £3 ahead of Stagecoach’s. The former 70p off peak child single increases by 10p to a uniform 80p.

Now what’s interesting is that they all said once Stagecoach had a monopoly, the fares would go up. In fact, now there’s a duopoly again, the same thing’s happening. Not that the market is truly duopolistic, it’s really two mainly free-standing monopolies competing at the margins, something perhaps the Competition Commission failed to grasp. Indeed, things were not only cheaper under a single monopoly supplier, you had a benefit of a wider network on which to travel with your day, weekly or monthly pass. And there was less customer-unfocused fare collection via hopper & drop safe.

Indeed, currently Stagecoach’s fares seem to be the lowest. How long that will last remains to be seen.

As is now customary, Preston Bus blamed fuel, removal of council subsidies and general inflation. They might’ve mentioned free travel, for the set. One local felt that rising fuel was nothing other than a smokescreen to pay for the new vehicles now doing the rounds. Rotala might actually take comfort that its repaints are being mistaken for new. Its solitary new purchase was, of course, a Citaro.

In spite of protestations, the alternative to a fares increase may have been less palatable. It would’ve meant service reductions. Imagine how that would’ve gone down among Prestonians who’ve welcomed “their” bus operator back.

What scope is there for back office savings at Preston Bus? Yes, there will be some under a modest sized group such as Rotala. But Preston Bus is somewhat isolated from the Rotala rump and it would be my guess that, actually, costs have increased since Preston Bus left the local Stagecoach fold. No matter what Rotala could do, it would be unlikely to reduce costs to same extent as under Stagecoach.

Coupled with a legacy of low fares, recovery from the Stagecoach bus war and need for investment (though its average fleet age is nine years), the reality is that bus operations here and elsewhere are very fragile at the moment.

Consultation

This is guest post by a noted industry insider. Omnibuses welcomes guest posts. More information here

Consultation seems to be a buzzword at the moment but what is it and what does it actually achieve?

If you ask a group of people who are going to be affected in different ways by a planned action, then clearly those who will be adversely affected will be against it and those who will benefit will… generally stay silent.

Consider an inter-urban bus route that an operator plans to speed up by avoiding a detour through a village. Very few people from the village actually use the bus and many people will benefit from a faster journey and possibly, if patronage grows as a result, from a more frequent service.

If the bus company consults with the villagers they will be outraged, but there is unlikely to be a groundswell of positive opinion supporting the faster journey to balance and indeed outweigh this. So now what happens? Either the plan goes ahead and the bus company is accused of ignoring the consultation, or it doesn’t go ahead and patronage doesn’t grow or declines, possibly putting the whole route at risk.

And if the bus company doesn’t consult then it’s accused of being faceless and “not consulting”.

If there’s a group of people who will all be affected in the same way then opinions can be useful such as, “would you be prepared to pay more for a service than lose it?” But if a plan benefits a majority at the expense of a small minority then what will consultation actually achieve? If it’s better overall then go for it but make sure that everyone has good notice so alternative arrangements can be made where necessary.

Let’s stop and think what we actually mean before we keep on about “consultation” as if it’s some magic formula to make sure everyone’s happy when in reality that’s just not possible all of the time.

Messing around with Child Fares

In parallel with this story, we hear that crude has again reached a new all time peak. And we had better get used to it...

You have to think very carefully when you mess around with child fares. Following the significant changes to TfGM’s child concessionary tickets, First Manchester probably thought it had no option. But the publicity and ill feeling it generates aren’t always worth it. This happened to Wilts & Dorset, too.

Child weekly tickets are now £8.50 rather than £7. That’s a rise of one fifth. First has increased adult weeklies by around five per cent. They’ve put adult day tickets up by half that amount. Child day tickets stick as is.

That said, you need to see the £8.50 in context. Before TfGM’s money-saving concessions tinkering, youngsters paid a flat 80p single. That’s £8 a week over five days, assuming most use was for school. A £7 weekly saved 12½ per cent on cash fares. Now, over-the-cash-tray child concessionary fares are half the adult single. This is an incentive to buy a weekly ticket even at the higher rate. Some children will get away with a 70p single, so they’re OK. Others pay 90p or £1.10 or more. A weekly works out at a fifth off, over £1.10 cash fares.

Yes, this is TfGM’s doing. Yes, all Manchester operators are out of pocket. But already, passengers are forgetting the background to this increase. No longer is the Manchester Evening News giving the reasons for the change at the top of its reports; instead, it’s burying the motive half way down.

I vaguely remember a similar issue in Merseyside in the late 1990s. If I recall correctly, Mersyetravel PTE withdrew its child concessions completely. MTL t/a Merseybus as was began charging full adult fares. Low & behold, MTL got the blame, not MPTE, forcing Merseybus to take the hit by reinstating child fares as a commercial decision.

Manchester is different in that child fares remain (albeit at a higher level). The trouble for First is twofold.

• First Manchester is already behind the eight ball on fares. It’s seen as a particularly pernicious operator in that department and the public is already railing against rises. It could peg child fares but would need to increase adult fares even more.


• TfGM is accusatory in its response. “The hiking up of prices on the back of our decision is unacceptable.” Given the fares legacy in Manchester, who will passengers believe? What damage is now done to those who are occasional users?

Meanwhile on Preston Bus, tomorrow, child fares will go up from 80p before 0930 & 70p thereafter to a standard 80p at all times.

Apologies in that I have been remiss in only recently checking my “improved” Blogger spam comment folder. A few comments have been “stuck” there. They are now released. In particular, there’s an interesting insider view on the 712 by the chairman of Uno. And a couple on Veolia in South Wales as well.

Quote of the Week

“It ain’t over till the fat lady sings and she hasn’t even begun to gargle yet”

Perhaps seemingly discredited (subject to appeal) operator Clayton Jones didn’t make up this quote. Perhaps he borrowed it. But I can just see the 2031 edition of Penguin’s Dictionary of Modern Quotations (only available via Kindle) attributing this to him. It’s such a good quote.

Jones was referring, of course, to his likely appeal following his latest brush with authority, this time the current traffic commissioner for the Welsh traffic area. The commissioner’s 21-page judgement was unusually critical. Said commissioner N Jones, “The culture that he creates within organisations where he has influence is a malign one”.

Let’s face it, the image of a burbling, overweight female preparing to croon is a crackin’ quote from a local hero of the people. Jones made himself unpopular with authority but very popular with the masses after he set up Shamrock (Wales). He made millions by selling Shamrock to Veolia at, let’s face it, a very favourable price. A price so high in relation to the condition of the business, in fact, that Veolia has struggled to make a profit in South Wales ever since (as elsewhere). One wonders whether Veolia has ever heard of the term “due diligence”.

If I were Jones, I would’ve simply poured a brandy, lit a cheroot, asked for my carpet slippers, put my feet up, switched on Gavin & Stacey and began blogging. I’d’ve left the industry to look after itself. Instead, I think Jones relishes the fight and always has. “Never give in, never surrender” should be another of Jones’s quotes. Tidy.

Symbiosis?

The beauty of a blog is that it encourages readers to illuminate and add value to the original material. As comments build up, they can feed off each other. This is exactly what happened yesterday, with 30 comments on whether buses & rail should connect.

Bournemouth interchange sees bus, coach & rail in one convenient location with a good spread of frequent services. But there are still hourly services passing through... and imagine if this were the only terminus rather than the town centre...

Let me go back 25 years to the time we had finished preparations for deregulation. This was the unknown to come. Within the industry, there was an oft-prevailing view that buses should keep well away from trains. I remember the commercial arguments well in favour of a divorce. Why encourage people on to the competition? It wasn’t a universal view but, anyway, things have changed. Even where bus and rail operator are different, there’s a realisation that the markets are to an extent symbiotic.

But that doesn’t mean all bus routes must connect with trains. There should be no dogma. Where they can connect, fine. Where planners & schedulers can bend a service without throwing the baby out with the bathwater, fine.

Looking over the comments received, I’d say the majority were in view of the mantra that buses should always connect with rail regardless of the consequences. There was nevertheless a significant minority of dissenters because the reality is that this is not always possible. The problem we have is that ordinary passengers don’t realise the penalty imposed on the majority should a low frequency route try to be all things to all people. Making alterations that weaken a service is in no one’s best interests, including those who may wish to connect with rail.

Please indulge me as I review some of your comments.

“If you cannot “interline” between different modes with some degree of certainty… then a major modal shift from private to public transport will never work unless frequencies are very high.”

The sceptic in me suggests that it will take more than carrots such as this to get people to “interline”. Longer distance travellers will continue to use their cars to the station regardless.Or straight through. This is based on numbers travelling on frequent services that do connect.

“In German cities… [the bus’] purpose is to bring people to the faster, high-capacity rail network for connections. Through ticketing is used, and timetables are (so far as feasible) co-ordinated.”

I am interested in the term “so far as is possible”. Isn’t that my point? As RC169 commented of Germany, “Most bus services start and/or finish at a railway station, but buses are generally not considered to have an “interurban” function. This is a significant difference to the UK”

“Should the bus arrive before the train (and miss any arriving rail passengers) or arrive after the train and disappoint any bus passenger who wanted to use the rail connection”

Another conundrum. A later comment put this well, “In an extreme situation [this] may keep a bus full of local people waiting around for no [rail] passengers whatsoever.”

“With high daytime frequencies it's less of an issue.”

Indeed.

“Describing the backbone of our nation's transport system - the one off which all local transport should hang, as it were - as "the T word" proves the point without any need to say any more.”

I prefer the other explanation of this. “Do you not think 'Mr Omnibus' might have just been being light hearted, given this is a bus blog...?”

“Has Mr Omnibuses even looked at public transport networks and studied timetables at places such as Zurich canton? The stuff he comes out on an almost daily basis shows he views thing with a typically British attitude”

Zürich? Where’s that? I guess my views are British because the bus industry outside the capital is deregulated & privatised. I have covered the reregulation debate, something that was hotter a few years ago. Would reregulation actually promote better bus-rail interchange? I ask because if this resulted in overall revenue loss, a regulated network would need more scarce public funding.

“It is in rural and semi-rural areas where [connections] really matter. And it’s in these areas where there IS the flexibility, it is just that the bus operator doesn't want to be flexible. The bus operator can have PNBs and layovers at the rail station, meeting both arrivals and departures, they just don't.”

Even here, this isn’t quite as easy as it sounds. The structure of deeply rural services (as opposed to inter-urbans) tend to be driven by school times that the set the pattern of a timetable. Rural services probably don’t operate early or late enough to meet key longer-distance commuter trains, outbound or inbound. “Lower revenues mean that pressures on costs will be greater, and services may well be just as tightly timed as those in urban areas… and if schools work provides a significant proportion of the revenue, the operator will not be able to be ‘flexible’ about waiting for a delayed train if the next journey is a school service”.

“I don't think you can assume that just because the buses and trains are run by the same company they will be integrated”

This is very true. And the reason is not to frustrate passengers but because it isn’t possible for every bus to meet every train, not without a revenue penalty. The other solution, high frequency bus services, isn’t always possible, either.

“Why do you think bus timetables run from 12 Dec 2010 to 10 Dec 2011 in many parts of Europe. Because they are coordinated with the train timetable!”

As another commenter stated, “Early December, when the train times change, is a pretty awful time to make revisions to bus services as it is so close to Christmas.”

“Why oh why don't bus companies start their thinking and planning with what the passenger needs?”

My contention is that they do. They offer the timetable that best suits the majority. Acting commercially has a number of benefits for passengers and local transport authorities alike. As another put it, “That's before we even mention the train times do vary slightly throughout the day - anyone fancy a non-clockface bus timetable to remember?”

“In Bristol there has been a call… for the bus station for country services to move to Temple Meads Railway Station - about a mile away - or for… country buses… to operate via the station, even though it is not on their line of route. All of this in the interests of "integration" despite no consideration being given to the additional time that passengers NOT going to the station would have to spend on their bus to get to their traffic objective - the city centre, where the bus station is situated.

Another conundrum. “If Bristol was in mainland Europe then Temple Meads would be a major centre of local transport. However, that does NOT mean that all buses have to go there. There would be a core tram or metro network” But there is a good bus service between the two. Why can’t that suffice? Because it’s probably seen as inferior and takes too long. It’s no substitute for passengers boarding directly in the city centre without having to change.

“Integration does not mean every bus must serve the railway, but all services should be able to ticket through to the railhead”

It’s easier to get a rail ticket with a bus add-on than to buy a bus ticket with a rail add on. Imagine boarding at Charminster (a suburb of Bournemouth with a bus to the rail station) and asking for a standard return to Norwich. OK, silly example but it illustrates. There are other means.

“I do not think the bus industry can be blamed, given the majority of factors are well outside their control…. in other countries the role of the bus is to link to the train, and that’s it. Not so here.”

The bus-rail market *is* small. It should never be overlooked but neither should it always drive a commercial timetable.

“With our railway network, there will never be a fully integrated system here.”

So few people actually see the *train* as the problem. It’s the bus that gets the blame.

“I've really had enough of the "can't do" attitude to public transport in this country. It's more like "won't do because it might harm the profits of our shareholders”.

OK, point taken but it’s these profits that drive investment and 90 per cent of bus mileage. We can chose to fund bus services more but it’s probably as well at the moment that the commercial model is able to support such a high proportion of the network. Buses shouldn’t meet trains at any cost.

“The operator who I work for is a state-owned, regulated [German] company, not a greedy “Big Five” plc! But even in regulated and integrated Germany bus operators have to make difficult decisions. As commercial driven British operators, German ones have to build their timetable to please the majority of passengers. Thus rail connections may get lost. Public transport in Germany and Britain is not so different as you might think.”

An interesting debate indeed. Thank you all.

Conundrum

We mention the T word again today, to which reference was last made in March 2010. We all know that bus-rail connections are an important market though patently this depends upon frequency, fares, the proximity of bus to rail and other factors.

South West Trains makes no mention of buses on its front page in spite of sizable bus networks. Neither does Wilts & Dorset nor Yellow Buses mention rail (though Transdev Yellow Buses included a guide to rail in its printed timetables)

Bus-rail interchange isn’t always easy, even when it’s one operator doing both. Sometimes, bus operators don’t always go to a lot of trouble to help facilitate connections and, invariably, it becomes a source of passenger dissatisfaction. Passengers ridicule a bus timetable that misses a train by a matter of minutes even though there may be good reason. They tend to blame the bus service as the more flexible of the two.

OK, where the bus frequency is high, this usually presents few problems for those wishing to change. But frequencies are not universally so.

Should, for example, a lower frequency bus route, say every 20, 30 or 60 minutes be structured around rail departures? In my view, it should not. My belief has always been that urban rail connections account for about two per cent of passengers. There are a lot more who wish to use the bus for other reasons and by bending the bus to the rail times we simply cheese off—and kill off—passengers who require an easily understood, clockface bus timetable. The danger is that the clockface frequency becomes anything but.

Quite often, rail itself is not clockface (e.g. in Bournemouth the gaps between up trains tends to be either 17, 23, 14, and 6 minutes; or 13, 9, 18, 14 and 6 minutes). Rail has a number of constraints that makes it notoriously difficult to connect, because:

• Seemingly similar trains may have different calling patterns


• Pathing may introduce differential rail running times


• There may be reasons why seemingly similar trains dwell longer at a station, to meet random (though planned) connections

Pure bus-rail connections are therefore something of a conundrum. It’s a nirvana often not achieved and potentially a running sore.

There are other questions to consider, such as:

• Where the station sees through trains, in which direction should you connect, if you can’t do both?


• Perhaps the bus frequency is constructed of two services from opposing areas that meet before following the same route to the rail station. Perhaps only one leg meets a decent rail connection unless you destroy the benefit of a combined frequency along the common section.


• Do you run a service that’s likely to offer a 10-minute connection and risk the bus or train being late? Or one of 20 minutes and risk passengers wondering why they have to wait so long?


• Should this connection time vary with the distance of the rail journey? A longer distance rail service is more likely to be unpunctual.


• What about at peak periods, when road congestion might hamper a connection on schooldays but not school holidays or Saturdays? How do you timetable for that?

Ultimately, connecting passengers need to be realistic. They need to remember that, unless frequencies are high, the bus service has never pretended to emulate a taxi. Hard as it may seem, sometimes you can’t please all the people. Better, then, to concentrate on the markets you*can* influence and ensure that they are disrupted as little as possible. Where the frequency is poorer, this may not include rail travellers.

A Loss of Colour

Talking of 1st April the traffic commissioner for the Welsh traffic area chose that very day to reveal his decision on Heart of Wales Bus & Coach Ltd t/a St David’s Travel. This, however, was no joke. The 10,500 words made very unpleasant reading for St David’s and are no doubt a one-way ticket to the transport tribunal. If St David’s chooses this course, the company may trade till such time as the tribunal hears its case; if not, its licence is revoked from 1st May 2011. But don’t expect this to be the end. Other brushes with public inquiries and appeals as mentioned in the decision have proven in favour of the appellant.

Nevertheless, if St David’s felt that it had a role in filling the void currently being left by the implosion of the South Wales Veolia empire some of which was once in the hands of a direct St David’s predecessor, it probably now needs to think again.

The commissioner stated that the controlling mind in the business “accepts that he is regarded as a colourful character”. Had matters turned out better for St David’s, that controlling mind might now be poised at pole position to develop considerably at Veolia’s expense. Colour would’ve been maintained in the Valleys. Instead, parts seem certain to see red *and* black vehicles disappearing.

The commissioner was clear in the strongest terms that “It is very much in the interest of the travelling public in South Wales and the operating licensing system generally that this operator finds its licence revoked and repute lost… The legitimate industry and other road users would rightly expect me to do so”. Wales may be the land of song and it may be famous for its bards but England has Shakespeare whose words may be true here: a countenance more in sorrow than in anger.

The special restricted O licence relating to demand responsive services continues, albeit with conditions.

Finally, perhaps 1st April did creep in after all as on page 2 of the decision, in the very first substantive paragraph, the word processor threw a wobbler and spell checked “public service vehicles” in a most unfortunate manner. Ah well, we’ve been there, done that or something like it. Just look at when I used discreet instead of discrete. Or was it the other way round?

You Just Never Know

You never know about media articles you read on 1st April so, without some sort of local knowledge, it’s impossible for me to determine whether the headline from the Huddersfield Daily Examiner’s a spoof:

“Kirklees Council spends £65,000 on 350 yards of Waterloo bus lane”

It’s status as a prank or not is unimportant, though this was actually published on 31st March. The reaction of its online readership sums everything up: to a person, they felt that Kirklees council was nuts. But they would think that, wouldn’t they. Because that’s how it always works. Everyone signs up to bus friendly policies in principle but as soon as a council or local transport authority actually delivers something radical (or in this case, less than revolutionary), there’s universal condemnation. Usually from the car owning caste.

For a moment, let’s suppose that the story’s not a prank. £65,000 is for an *extra* 350 yards-worth to an existing priority. It might sound expensive but is it really?

1. Remember that this is an extension to an existing, longer scheme, one that would’ve cost significantly more.


2. It works out at £185 per yard. That seems somewhat more reasonable. In fact, it actually sounds cheap, I don’t know.


3. Compared to the cost of a new length of single carriage way road, this is an absolute bargain: you’d pay several times this £185 figure per *inch*.


4. During the hours of operation (0730-0930) the paper says there are 14 buses traversing the bus lane. In fact, there are 17. Assuming these buses operate Mondays to Saturdays, that’s over 5,000 trips a year. If the bus lane remains for 12 years, other things being equal, this works out at almost exactly £1 per trip. Even over five years, this is £2.50 a trip.


5. The time saved is said to be 1 min 8 secs. From a motorist’s perspective, that’s not a great deal but passengers prize this far more highly, as they watch cars stream past when they wait for their bus and clack-watch when stuck on a bus in traffic. Remember, it’s generally the single occupancy motorist holding up the multiple occupancy bus.


6. Road builders tend to use cumulative time when justifying major road schemes. They multiply the three minutes saved by a modest single carriageway by-pass costing millions by the traffic volume along it. On this basis, say each of the 17 buses had on average 20 passengers, the cumulative time saved over a year is 72 days. Yes, I know this is hypothetical but if road builders can use this inflated justification, why not for buses.


7. Even if you assume that each bus saves one minute only, the benefit cost ratio is extremely positive. It’s £1 per minute saved over 12 years.


8. If it costs an operator some £100,000 p.a. all-in to operate just one bus in its fleet then the £65,000 for a priority measure is value indeed.

i Huddersfield Examiner

What’s Occurrin’?

Oh. Veolia. What’s Occurrin’? More sad news from the promise that was once Veolia, I’m afraid. As speculation within the industry mounts that Veolia is primed to exit the UK stage left, there comes news that its Welsh jewel at Treforest, a new facility garaging more than 100 vehicles, may shut. The prognosis both in & out of Wales is anything other than ‘lush’. Simple as.

The fact that the new Veolia Transdev combine omitted Veolia’s UK operations from the recent merger tells its own tale. Veolia might therefore sell; divide & sell; or just disintegrate. This follows cumulative trading losses of over £7½mil since 2005. Even the normally taciturn and non-judgemental news section of Route One broke tradition by calling Veolia an “odd collection of businesses”.

Back in Treforest, staff notices and letters paint a bleak picture as to what’s appertainin’. Veolia intends to:

• Transfer to another location such school & private hire work as is feasible. This appears unsustainable at Treforest


• Withdrawn some commercial mileage


• Hand back local authority local bus contract work

Veolia is banking on the TUPE transfer of staff to any new local authority contractor. That presupposes LTAs are able to cover things like for like. That may not necessarily be possible in the current climate. What happens if new contracts require fewer drivers? And TUPE cannot apply if a commercial service is deregistered.

They say nature abhors a vacuum. Someone, somewhere will fill the Veolia void. Perhaps multiple someones. Meanwhile, those who remember Bebb’s local bus operations will lament the way things are now going. Veolia’s south Wales National Express commitments pass to Edwards next month. Crackin’.

With apologies to Gavlar & Stacey though really, and I won’t lie to you, for those involved, this is absolutely *no* laughing matter.

Less than Warm Welcome for Emblem?

While the bus industry was eying up the prospect of local branding & liveries at First UK Bus, something no less radical was actually happening at Greater Manchester PTE. A change of name, for example.

From 1st April 2011, GMPTE emulates London in becoming Transport for Greater Manchester. Except TfGM doesn’t quite have the powers of TfL. And almost on Day 1, TfGM was courting controversy. Manchester’s three biggest operators were each blaming TfGM for fares increases, citing changes to TfGM’s free travel & child concessions.

Any new name these days must of necessity bring with it a new logo. It’s a tidying up exercise when compared to the post-Selnec GMPTE emblem of 1974—37 years ago. You might wonder why an organisation with such a durable & long-lasting logo wishes to change. But it’s really only a subtle redesign. All big corporations do it—BP, Tesco, and Manchester’s very own BBC. My guess is that Mancunians will still refer to it as GuMPTE for many years to come.

Out goes the familiar GMPTE orangey colour. In terms of familiarity, TfGM claims that its transport brand is the third most recognised in the country, after British Rail and TfL. Really? What about First, Stagecoach, Arriva, British Airways, easyJet and National Express? Even Traveline.

Meanwhile, we see changes to what was once the Greater Manchester Passenger Transport authority, latterly the GM Integrated Transport Authority. Also from Friday 1st April, it’s now the innocuous-sounding Transport for Grater Manchester Committee. Innocent it might sound but it actually has greater powers than the GMITA. It’s now a committee of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (also established 1.4.2100), the first city region top tier statutory authority. It’s most recent parallel was the Greater Manchester County Council of 1974 to 1984, which acted at the PTA six years after its 1969 formation and oversaw the PTE.

As for fares, in spite of a fares freeze promise, First’s are going up by 20p per adult singe from today. This is already proving highly unpopular with passengers who understand nothing of and care little about the mechanics of fares policies. For First Manchester, a black hole is just that. It can take some comfort in that its two large neighbours are also upping their fares, in Arriva’s case from 17th April.

Web screen shots are from the Joint Committee website of 2011 and the PTE websites of 2008, 1999 and 1997. Follow the Greater Manchester Transport blog

A Day Late for This?

The answer to winter waiting? This, of course, is fake but a nice idea anyway, even if it’s basically an advertisement. Only in America.

Now then, thank you for your comments on yesterday’s posts, here and on the Dorset Bus Blog. Well done to those reading Dorset Bus who spotted the well laid traps. I particularly liked the comment, “Not even Bournemouth Transport with their poorly planned route decisions would take on this white elephant.” I deliberately used the term Bournemouth Transport Ltd to refer to the 1974 Hampshire situation because Yellow Buses wasn’t *officially* coined for nearly a decade later, of course.

As for yesterday’s main Omnibuses post—my senior First contact who supplied the info cannot say with certainty what “light plumb” is but he thinks it may be similar to the pre-dereg Portsmouth maroon municipal livery, only lighter. Can readers really say that this post was wind-up? : )