Doomsday

Dire forecasts of a widening gap in service provision come from research sponsored by The P.T.E.G. The MVA report says, by 2014, at its worst, that the English urban bus industry is on course to see:

1. Patronage fall by another 20 per cent
2. Mileage reduce by 19 per cent and
3. Fares increase by nearly a quarter

This follows progressive BSOG reductions from next April, progressive changes in free travel entitlement to 66, increases in fuel, reductions in local transport authority support and even reductions in road maintenance budgets that will increase operational costs.

Look closely at the photographs on the cover of the MVA report and what do you see? The obligatory London bus that, in this case, has no bearing on a report that specifically excludes the capital. At least it isn’t a Routemaster

This assumes that bus industry profit margins continue as now. In other words, the changes in patronage, mileage and fares will result directly from the need to maintain current profitability. The report states, fairly, that it will be the passenger who shoulders the burden and not the operator.

The report also speculates upon what might happen were the government to adopt the likely findings of the Competition Commission inquiry into bus services. And, here, conjecture is the word. Operators would then have limited scope to increase fares or reduce mileage. This means the operator is likely to shoulder more of the burden, rather than the passenger, but there would still be reductions as follows:

1. Patronage would instead fall by seven per cent
2. Mileage would reduce by four per cent and
3. Fares would likely neither increase or decrease (in real terms)

Operators’ margins would therefore fall. It’s interesting that consultants don’t seem to consult with each other. Another, this time TAS in evidence to the same CC inquiry, believes the *current* margins are wholly inadequate for either long- or medium-term sustainability.

No one yet knows whether the CC conclusions will find their way into regulations. It’s more realistic to consider what we do know—i.e. the pressures operators will face. If the report is accurate, this essentially means the decline in ridership is mirrored by an almost identical increase in fares. Just what will the average passenger make of that? Paying more for a substantially poorer service? They won’t like it. They’ll not understand, they’ll think it’s a joke and they’ll want some sort of change…

i MVA report for The P.T.E.G.