Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Divorce or Marriage of Convenience?

The French competition authorities have recently approved the merger of Transdev and Veolia. This has followed a full 19 months’ gestation, from the merger’s July 2009 announcement. The result? It means there are four weeks to go till we see another structural change in the ownership of the British bus industry.

Transveolia: an image to keep up

February 22nd is the due date. So, what happens? The Transdev/Veolia merger comes with a condition that RATP gives up its 25 per cent stake in Transdev in exchange for the outright acquisition of the two former Transdev UK assets (and others, in Europe).
  • RATP (RATP Dev, to be precise) therefore takes over Transdev Yellow Buses, Transdev London United and the NSL Services business formerly owned by NCP that transferred to London Sovereign.

  • Transdev Blazefield and the rump of Transdev London Sovereign continue under the Transveolia combine.

  • Indeed, Blazefield and Sovereign join Veolia’s other UK bus interests, in South Wales and elsewhere.
One wonders how this will pan out for the uncomfortable bedfellows now tucked up together in the Transveolia boudoir. After the divroce, is this something of a marriage of convenience? Leaving aside Sovereign that operates within the inflexible, controlled London market, Blazefield and Veolia are a very diverse mix. In the UK, who will lead and dominate? Transdev or Veolia? Will we see the individuality that is Blazefield subsumed under a sea of red? Or will this offer a second chance to poorly performing Veolia subsidiaries?

Till this moment, the ragbag of Veolia operators in the UK has been shrinking. In very recent times, its largest South Wales business has steadily contracted and there are perpetual reports that it may yet be up of sale. Veolia’s already sold its York operation and Nottingham’s in reverse and sold. Veolia’s reputation is hardly helped by a website that has the latest news dating to December 2009 and references to previously sold operations.

Indeed, analysts will probably look back at early Veolia and wonder whether it made the right investment decisions at the right time. Veolia’s (re-) entry (after Connex) into the UK market was certainly marked by a period of acquisitiveness. Perhaps Veolia was just too impatient. Had Veolia waited a wee while, who knows whether it might’ve partaken of later and more solid opportunities such Plymouth City Bus. After all, the usual pundits predicted a solid buying spree.

It was once possible to contemplate or speculate that Veolia might wish to take over Go Ahead, for example. With TYB passing to RATP Dev and no commonality any more between Transveolia & Go Ahead in London, in theory there are no competition authority issues. But it’s now felt that very little international cash is immediately available for expansion and this may quash Veolia’s UK aspirations.

Meanwhile, as if to set the scene for things to come, Transdev has recently made an interesting purchase of a large London taxi outfit. Previous bus industry forays into the taxi trade haven’t always proved to be well judged. But it seems that Transdev isn’t the only operator now vying for the paratransit market.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its already going downhill rapidly in Harrogate with buses forever breaking down and come April we will be losing all the council contracted routes. That's the 56, 57, 58, 104, 110, 111 and X59. A lot of lost work.

James said...

Dare I ask: where does this leave the last visible bit of Connex?

(after all, Jersey isn't part of the UK)

Anonymous said...

Good riddance to Veolia, hopeless shower. I feel sorry for Transev.

Anonymous said...

Interesting times.

Their South Wales operation is generally very patchy in terms of quality, not helped by internal factions which seem to originate from the various 'taken over' companies which make up the operation.

The recent public enquiry opened up a lot of these old sores, but they don't seem to be moving to heal them. Personally I'm not sure that Veolia can really be improved; a merger with Transdev might drag them all down, although hopefully not.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous, 10:25 - do you know who are taking these over?

Lewwy said...

Such chalk n cheese, i view Transdev as following forward with Blazefields quality image however this cannot be said of the Veolia operations but then again the foundations of both portfolios are different with Blazefields routes originating in profitable tram routes from a hundred years ago with fantastic patronage where the companies that Veolia have mopped up with there cash loaded mop are businesses that operate a majority of council or PTA tendered work, profit before the bus leaves the depot!!. Has anyone ever tried to operate a bus company that can only offer late and sunday shifts?

Eric said...

I was chatting to a Veolia driver (in South Wales) on my way home on Sunday evening. He was very sure back then that the merger was going to take place. He understands that Veolia Cymru are set to get investment to bring in newer vehicles and there has been talk of expansion within their Nantgarw operation and the intention is more competition with Stagecoach in the surrounding areas.

Of course this could be a lot of guff. However, whenever I've chatted with him in the past, his information has been very accurate, unlike much of their timetabling. With regard rumours that they are up for sale, they are heavily advertising Paul James coach holidays in the area, the company Veolia have recently purchased.

As for Veolia's services, I wonder what they could possibly do in South Wales that would make a profitable business. Their operation is a mash up of evening and Sunday routes that the bigger companies aren't interested in, a few commercial routes and loads of irregular routes again that others aren't bothered with.

I fail to see how, unless they get a decent network of services and can dominate in an area, how they can ever be a profitable operator. Much of their income has to be through council subsidies, leaving them hopelessly vunerable if government cuts bite the industry hard. All of their drivers that I have talked to have said they also need to win back the trust of the public, who in general have little time for Veolia. It would be safe to say that on routes where they have competition, Veolia come out very much second best. I also know of organisations that have discontinued use of their private hire operation due to continued problems.

Is there a market for them to become profitable? Who knows. I can't see it. For me they've had it.

Stevie D said...

@Anonymous
Its already going downhill rapidly in Harrogate with buses forever breaking down and come April we will be losing all the council contracted routes. That's the 56, 57, 58, 104, 110, 111 and X59. A lot of lost work.
Not wanting to make light of the loss, but that only equates to, what, 4 diagrams?

I just hope that Transdev takes the lead on the UK operations. Their reputation, at least in the Blazefield group, is very good - Veolia, on the other hand, were pretty dreadful. If their business model of cut-price cowboys is extended to premium flagship routes like Coastliner, the 36, the Shuttle and Witch Way, that would be the death of them.

Anonymous said...

Re Harrogate. NYCC have apparently rejected tenders from all operators for the contracted routes and are in talks with the community operator Little Red Bus

https://www3.northyorks.gov.uk/n3cabinet_dr/businessandenvi_/2010_/bes2110awardofp/BES2110-AwardofPassTransportServices-Harrogate,RichmondshireandHambleton.pdf

Anonymous said...

Sorry that was an earlier document make it
https://www3.northyorks.gov.uk/n3cabinet_dr/businessandenvi_/2011_/bes0111awardoft/BES0111-AwardofTranspContractsHarrogateandRichmondsh.pdf

Anonymous said...

The translations of the union that I have read seem to indicate that Veolia will be responsible for the industrial side (ie dustcarts) while Transdev takes reponsibilty for bus operations