Happy New Year…

… for 2011 from Omnibuses and the Big Five. Off beat style.

National Express

Said the headline, “National Express slashes 50% off tickets for royal wedding”. I didn’t know NatEx was a recognised reseller for Westminster Abbey events but you learn something every day. And I didn’t realise you could buy a seat at the marriage service…

In terms of coach travel, NatEx states it’s already received enquiries for the April 2011 weekend from afar afield as… Mexico. When I tried, I couldn’t find Mexico City on its journey planner.

A fledgling deregulated NatEx transported 8,000 for Charles & Di’s wedding in 1981. Compare this with the Pope’s 2010 visit, when it shifted over six times that number. Then again, the Charles & Di didn’t get married in central Birmingham.

Let’s hope rail operators follow suit and halve prices during one of the busiest weeks of next year when extra capacity will no doubt also be required. Hmmm…

Stagecoach

Stagecoach cut its mileage by 2.3 per cent in 2010, more than I realised but less than, say, First. Commenting on Stagecoach’s interims, of 2011 Brian Souter said, “If you do the mad axeman thing it can be really damaging. We don’t want to take mileage out… we like to grow businesses, not shrink them”.

Stagecoach will nevertheless be at the mercy of England’s local transport authorities who from April 2011 or sooner will between them have no option, it seems, but to shrivel up their local networks, thanks to budget cuts.

Arriva

Arriva’s 2011 corporate diary features the 11 European languages of the 11 countries in which it operates. Except on occasion the languages include (by accident) Icelandic, Faroese and Georgian and, probably by design, that if the Welsh region.

March ~ Marts ~ Maart ~ März ~ Marzo ~ Março ~ Marzo ~ Mars ~ Mawrth ~ Marzec ~ Březen

Like other corporate diary efforts, Arriva’s makes no mention of either Arriva, Green Line or Traveline within its Travel Information or Useful Contacts pages. Nor does it refer to any of its direct competitors, either, for that matter. Ferries, car hire and roadside assistance are there, plus a whole page on air travel. Just what the busy bus industry executive needs, of course, thanks to a bought-in, standard diary manufacturers.

Go Ahead

There seems to be an award for everything, these days. Hot on the heals of Brighton & Hove success at the UK Bus Awards, Go Ahead Group has won another. For the second year, it has the honour of holding the prestigious FTSE 250 Investor Relations Society “Best Practice Award”, for corporate websites.

Very few people see its corporate website, of course. More usually, people visit its bus (and rail) subsidiaries’ own. It’s interesting that, corporately, Go Ahead’s site recognises the likes of Plymouth Citybus but hides its strong Wilts & Dorset, Bluestar and Southern Vectis brands under the mythological (sic) Go South Coast name. Actually, Go South Coast has a website but, again, this isn’t paraded in front of an adoring public. It was last used in anger as a recruitment tool for the recently appointed directors and managers.

First Group

Erm, couldn’t find anything off beat... unless you, dear readers, know differently. Guys at First, you’re all too serious this time of year!

BRT Update

That’s bus rapid transit to you and me; not “be right there”, to use internet shorthand.

Will Leeds ever get its trolleybuses? I sense (somewhat tongue in cheek) that the West Yorkshire Metro PTE is slightly embarrassed with its trolleybus proposals. It really wanted a tram set but the previous government put paid to that, owing to cost (at £500mil)—so Metro PTE quickly morphed the plans into a half-price trolleybus. Metro couldn’t quite face calling it remotely anything that sounded like a humble “bus”, so it christened it the “Leeds Next Generation Transport” in the hope no one would realise it was actually akin to one of First Yorkshire’s articulated FTRs but running under wires instead.

In March 2010, the government gave an in principal go-ahead to much of the proposals. Now, the DfT’s denied the trolleybus (sorry LNGT) its funding. It says that the scheme should first become more affordable. Fair enough, we all have a moral imperative to cut corners. Apart from economies, this means raising local contributions from 20 to 40 per cent. This in itself doesn’t actually make the scheme more affordable, it redistributes the cost. Fair enough, again.

There are now very few people around who remember or can speak with some working knowledge of trolleybuses. Neighbouring Bradford’s was the very last in England and three years before that, Bournemouth sadly (but inevitably) lost its system. There were three principal reasons why Bournemouth cut its losses:

• The inability to source replacement vehicles. We can only assume Leeds has and will build this into its equation. Adaptation of continental designs will no doubt help when the inevitable vehicular replacement comes knocking.


• The inflexibility & expense of expansion beyond Bournemouth’s fixed trolley termini. This is a major flaw in any trolley system unless it can continue under its own power but at least part of the Leeds proposal sends the trolleys into an area yet to be developed. Post-war housing development in Bournemouth outstripped any possible trolley expansion (even were the capital available to for extensions). One wonders whether the 21st century pace in Leeds is so fast.


• Problems associated with roadworks. This was a major impediment in Bournemouth. The almost continual 1960s junction widening and realignment, new road lengths and general roadworks all caused chaos for the Bournemouth trolleys necessitating parallel realigning of the catenary and wires. Leeds will overcome some of this by operating on dedicated lanes and by first diverting utilities. Even so, NGT vehicles will need to operate alongside exiting traffic on ordinary roads. Inevitably, there will be design changes along the way though, again, are these likely to be of the same scale as during the 1960s? Leeds council is also a NGT partner and on assumes they, too, are planning for highway changes.

Metro may be somewhat embarrassed about the “bus” but failure to conquer these issues during the planning stage will lead to real discomfiture in the future.

Child Fares

No one should ever throw children off a bus because they haven’t the correct—or any—fare. There are (or should be) procedures that involve names, addresses and promises. We all know that the recovery rate is poor, that parents or the children themselves don’t always cough up the cash. The admin time in chasing such lost revenue isn’t usually worth it, either. It’s a fact of life within the bus industry that you’ve just got to accept.

No one should directly confront the driver after the event, either. Two wrongs, and all that. Yet, that’s what a Derby parent did, when he learnt that his 14 year old daughter and her 13 year old companion were allegedly spoken to rudely and then refused entry to an Arriva Derby bus because they had no B-line child concession card. Better for Dad to go through proper channels rather than potentially make a monkey of himself for the on-board CCTV. I didn’t know we encouraged vigilantes in this country.

No one should immediately contact their local newspaper about such a story (as did this parent) without first speaking to the operator. It’s a modern symptom of English life these days and rather equates to telling tales to teacher. Then again, since there is no immediate authority to which to complain, people become frustrated. No different to Tesco, though.

No one should ever print such stories. This sort of thing isn’t “news”, it’s Polyfilla. The fact that articles such as these appear is indicative of the need to fill space between press releases. Going to the paper just brings out the worst in people, whether they rationally side with the operator or whether they take a holier-than-thou approach against it.

No one should come up with comments like, “My wife and I told Ashleigh that if she went into town, then she had to stay in Westfield and only leave to get the bus home” without first asking themselves, if it was so unsafe why were no parents with them at 2030 on a Christmas late night shopping trip.

No one should allow their children out without checking they had the correct fare and pass beforehand, surely. Isn’t that basic parenting? The pioneering Derbyshire council B-line student travel proof of age card was one of the first child concessionary schemes in England and has been around long enough for everyone to know that it’s a requirement.

Everyone should have the correct fare with them before they travel. Regrettably, young people too often feel that they can get away with “half fare” when they are patently over 15 (or whatever the local cut off is). Woe betide a driver who actually challenges someone he feels is over age. 16 is very much an arbitrary cut off these days, as few start work at this age. The only way around this is charge full adult fares at all times for those unaccompanied young people who don’t have their identifies with them. Or balance the two types of fares to minimise revenue loss, by reducing the child concession still further.

Now, *that* would make for a *proper* news story.

Certainty & Uncertainty

Witness November’s very downbeat Euro Expo 2010 as an example of the mood of the moment. And all because the banking sector acted irresponsibly. With changes to free travel, BSOG and local transport authority budgets, it’s hard to conclude anything other than service cuts to come.

So it is that between Christmas & New Year, we at Omnibuses try to glance forward towards the year ahead. 2011 will be a momentous year. Some things are certain and others far from it. The bus industry needs to play its part.

The economy & bus use

Businesses hate uncertainty (and potentially rising interest rates). No one really knows what’s about to happen. We can’t comprehend the level of debt in Europe. Is the economy therefore on hold for the bus industry? How does that affect business planning? Uncertainty is itself one of the biggest business problems.

Shopping

In a week’s time, VAT increases, plus pay freezes and higher RPI. If this leads to a high street slow down, it will affect bus revenue. The two are very much intertwined.

Competition Commission

January is interim results month. These findings are likely to be as equally onerous as the data collection itself. Where will this take the industry?

BSOG

In concentrating on BSOG, the industry has been unable to demonstrate the importance and worth of retaining free travel as is. At least we can plan for BSOG -20 per cent. Could be worse.

Free travel

Longer distance & rural services may be hardest hit, as from April the reimbursement formulæ change. Not much time to plan and what will the effect be: fares rises, service cuts, both, or neither?

Unemployment

Every lost job leaves a legacy of 48 weeks of bus revenue loss. Take your area’s weekly ticket and multiply by 48 to see the result per passenger.

Subsidies

Shrinking budgets mean a significant number of local transport authorities are already announcing cuts. Such services could be the difference between profit and loss. Drivers’ jobs may go. LTAs will struggle with the resultant book-balancing commercial deregistrations.

Fuel

This remains perhaps the biggest issue. Now at July 2008 levels with more rises to come, hedging may smooth the ride but it catches up with you in the end.

Structural changes

More back office integrations and municipal sales will try to reduce industry office costs.

Leadership

There are changes new or imminent at the top of both First Group and Go Ahead. Not the easiest times in which to take over.

Manufacturing

2010 wasn’t a great year, with only Stagecoach ordering lots. Will uncertainties carry over the 2011?

And the antidote?

I wish it were easy to state. A clear head, adaptation, plans for each of the likely eventualities, knowing your cost & revenue base and marketing appear the best ways forward...

And elsewhere

Some 30 per cent cuts in staffing at the DfT may mean some jobs left undone. Inflation busting rail fares next month may bring an opportunity for commuters expresses. Can Lothian Buses survive being handed full responsibility for the poorly Edinburgh tram? We await government rail policy decisions.

Belt Up

I suppose it was the fact that the crash occurred on Christmas Eve. And that the majority if not all the 48-49 passengers aboard were reported as wearing their seat belts and the vehicle remained largely structurally intact. For these reasons, the Norfolk crash, where a brand new 60-reg Mercedes of Coach Marqued Galloway’s ended up on its side, didn’t quite get the media exposure you might’ve expected. No one died.

Seat belts on coaches had no benefit from the sort of campaigns associated with the voluntary wearing of belts in cars, in the 1970s

Indeed, it’s generally acknowledged that seat belts played a considerable part in minimising injuries. Excuse the pun, but have we reached a tipping point in the public’s perception about wearing seat belts on coaches? I don’t think that we have quite yet but it’s certain that we are approaching that time when clunking & clicking every trip will become the norm.

For now, though, passengers still feel inherently safe aboard a coach, such that seat belt wearing isn’t always their first thought. Passengers do have good cause to feel that way: coaches and buses have an impressive record. Yet, there’ve been a spate of over-turning incidents recently and even more than the usual number of double deck topplings, including coaches.

Next year, seat belt regulations regarding children & young people date back exactly 20 years. Readers may recall that, back then, a PSV needed lap belts as a minimum if it:

• Carried three or more children (as defined by their age and journey was school-related).


• Was defined as a coach. For this purpose,, this depended upon its doing more than 60 mph.

At the time, there was much industry groaning by operators. No doubt cost had something to do with it but there were other concerned:

• Some felt that belt fitting was actually necessary. It as an over-reaction.


• Many thought belts might prevent swift evacuation. Not that anyone paid any heed to evacuation training.


• Some believed, in a crash, that ill-fitted restraints would cause the flooring to rip out, thereby increasing risks.

The initial industry response was therefore defensive. They fitted limiters that prevented their vehicles going over the defined 60 mph. This meant that belts were not required.

How things change. Next year, 2011, will see the fifth anniversary of the mandatory wearing of seat belts, where fitted. Drivers need to make an announcement to this affect unless as is usual the vehicle has a standard seat belt pictogram.

Those travelling with Galloway’s were reported as retired. It’s people such as these who seem more attuned to belt wearing on coaches. If each incident does nothing else but plant the need to wear seat belts into the public’s mind then at least something comes out of each one.

What of the segment of the population initially targeted in 1991, young people? Primary pupils up to 11 will generally wear belts, especially if reminded. Those over 11 feel immortal and rarely belt up, even if reminded. 20 years after belts first became compulsorily fitted and five after they were mandatory in use, the one thing that’s lacking is enforcement.

Meanwhile, with the Galloway’s incident involving just the brand new vehicle itself, on a straight piece of road that the police described as “fine”, it seems clear where the police investigation will concentrate.

The Changing Face of...

... Boxing Day.

We’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating: today has become one of the biggest shopping days of the year, even busier that New Year’s Day. This year could be busier still, with VAT on the rise and a certain pent up need for shopping, thanks to pre-Christmas winter weather. Boxing Day used to be a family day and it’s actually a sad indictment of our consumer culture that it is no longer.

It’s taken some years to catch up but the bus is nevertheless beginning to rise to the challenge of retail mania by reintroducing Boxing Day buses, with more and more operators now running service in 2010. Patchy, it isn’t anywhere near universal, though. Here’s a flavour of things.

OPERATOR	BOXING DAY OFFER
Abellio Surrey	No service save 441 (Heathrow)
Brighton & Hove	Special timetables on 19 routes
First Berkshire & Thames Valley	No service save for 71 & 78 (Heathrow)
First Devon & Cornwall	No buses
First Dorset & Hampshire	No Service
First West	No Service save for A1/A2 Bristol Airport
Metrobus (provincial)	Special timetables
Oxford Bus Co	No service
Plymouth Citybus	No Service
Reading Transport	Special timetables
Southern Vectis	Sunday service
Stagecoach Oxford	Special timetables (city and country)
Stagecoach South East	No service
Stagecoach South West	No service
TfL	Sunday service
Thamesdown Transport	No service
Transdev Yellow Buses	Special service
W&D Bluestar	Special service
Wilts & Dorset	Special service

In some areas, you cannot get to the shops but you can get out of the country!

May I be permitted to focus on the way in which two neighbouring operators are delivering their new Boxing Day services, predictably Trandev Yellow Buses and Wilts & Dorset. Both are new to Boxing Day. TYB has achieved everything with a dozen or so single shifts, with scheduled-in lunch breaks. This is by far the more efficient way of doing it, though it does leave gaps in the middle of the day.

W&D has continuous coverage, requiring more costly driver reliefs. W&D therefore affords its passengers the luxury of a memorable timetable. Theirs is passenger focused whereas TYB’s is what we used to call a scheduler’s timetable, something that’s generally no longer acceptable. So, whereas TYB operates thrice an hour on the 1A/B/C twixt Bournemouth & Boscombe but with an 80 minute gap between 1200 and 1320, W&D’s M2 runs twice an hour consistently.

Similarly, W&D operates half-hourly on the M1 along the Charminster Road between Bournemouth and Castlepoint, TYB run the 3 at hourly intervals but misses the 1230 departure.

And look what’s happening beyond Boxing Day. Four days of holidays and the picture’s far from consistent, with some operators running normally or a Saturday service on Tuesday 28th bank holiday, while others prefer a more traditional Sunday timetable.

W&D’s situation is particularly worthy of note. Whereas its group sister Southern Vectis operates a limited service even on Christmas Day (its third), SVOC gives its passengers a Sunday service on 28th. Siblings W&D and W&D Bluestar will run a Saturday timetable. The motivation is the staff agreement during a four day holiday, which means locally drivers will need paying regardless of whether or not W&D makes service.

It therefore becomes a bit of a postcode lottery as to whether you will see a bus from after 2000 on Christmas Eve to first journey on 29th December. Even where Sunday services are available, these are increasingly limiting. Many will be without a bus for the whole four days.

Christmas greetings from Omnibuses

Exclusive: Omnibuses brings you the first image of Optare’s brand new 2011 Versa SR. Or is it the Versa+?

Himself is back, today on the Dorset Bus Blog.

Stepping In

It’s not unheard of. Local transport authority feels the pinch and selects services or journeys from which it wishes to withdraw. Operator decides to take on the risk commercially. Everyone’s happy. And with more & more LTAs contemplating budget savings, they will no doubt be hoping that operators will step in.

Operators who do this sort of thing don’t do so for nothing. There needs to be a reason and these can be:

• Commercial potential


• Revenue already or nearly covering costs—a modest fares increase may be enough


• Keep out competitor who might register commercially


• Keep free travel revenue, if significant


• Fitting in something marginally that otherwise leaves a gap in operation


• To garner goodwill


• Preventing the resultant gaps leaving a disjointed timetable


• To protect jobs.

Transdev Yellow Buses is doing just that on its 2B (Bournemouth-RBH-Kinson). Except that in this case, TYB’s stepping from 1815 on Sundays and 2000 on weekday evenings and only then over the supported section, between the Royal Bournemouth Hospital and Kinson. This is after Castlepoint shopping centre has largely shut. Revenue’s likely to be at its lowest.

Why? Altruism? It takes one bus and driver at these times.

“We have looked at this from a customer perspective and will be doing our utmost to keep the service going on weekday and Sunday evenings. However, the true test is whether passengers vote with their feet and use the services. We will keep a close check on numbers and review our involvement in late Spring.” What’s likely to change between now and then? Can it really expect more people to vote with their feet? If TYB decides to pull the service next year, the negative publicity falls on the operator, not council, and it undoes all the good publicity it now gets.

“In the meantime we are approaching local companies and organisations to see whether [any] will partner with us in order to ensure the long-term future of weekday and Sunday evening services.”

Now, here we have an interesting statement. This could mean the 2B but it also could be construed to mean other routes. It might imply such evening and Sunday evening services are marginal across the board which, of course, they mostly are, more so in Bournemouth's winter. My experience of trying to find partners to secure services results in enthusiasm in principle but absolutely nothing in practice. Even if a partner were to be found, the result is often fragile and short-lived. If the council doesn’t step in, no one else is likely to. We know that Bournemouth council places its priorities on maintaining weekday, daytime buses. There are mercifully few supported services in Bournemouth—much is commercial, a higher proportion of mileage than in many similarly sized towns.

Direct Action

Should you chose to exercise the power of your purse by refusing a particular commodity, the Ethical Consumer website has a long list of boycotted products, ranging from perennials such as Nestlé to newcomer BP, via the likes of Kellogg’s, Shell and Peugeot. No mention that I can see of any bus operators.

But there’s a campaign in Leeds under the banner Fair Fares for All that is demanding direct action in support of its calls for cheaper bus travel. According to the Yorkshire media, FFfA is actually asking passengers to boycott First’s buses and indeed those of other operators for one day over the festive period.

Is this the first example of a call for direct action against a bus operator? The first that actually hits revenue? You occasionally here of residents using cars to block a road to prevent a bus getting through and while this may have a revenue implication, it isn’t a withdrawal of support by passengers.

The FFfA campaign is in response to the most recent fares increase by First. They might’ve picked a better time to try such a stunt, as the period between Christmas and New Year is, as we know, rather slack in terms of patronage. And, given that the use of buses tends to be either a “distress purchase” or free at the point of use, is the campaign doomed at the start? After all, there may be alternatives to Nestlé, BP, Kellogg’s, Shell and Peugeot but there is none to First.

And this lies at the heart of the matter. Fair Fares for All is aligning with West Yorkshire ITA’s call for quality contracts. Though FFfA doesn’t make the logical step itself, what it’s saying is that the bus service is a natural monopoly at worst or duopoly at best that needs tighter regulation under a London-style franchise arrangement. Accordingly, Metro PTE has welcomed the campaign.

But we need to return to that simple and oft quoted formula for bus operation:

Revenue = fares + subsidy

There are no other significant sources of revenue other than these two components. In canvassing for a “decent bus service at an honest fare” (lower than at present), FFfA needs to accept that only increases in subsidy will balance the books. This seems somewhat optimistic in the current climate. Not to mention more people in more areas of life will be asked to contribute more for services (e.g. car park charges).

We don’t yet know of the likely impact of FFfA. What we do know is that FFfA has asked the question, “Would you welcome a council regulated bus service?”. To date, there are only 20 responses and, unsurprisingly, they all said “yes”. It’s rather like asking, “would you welcome free beer at pubs & clubs over Christmas” without adding “are you prepared for an increase in taxation to pay for it and an increase in policing to patrol the aftermath”. We all know what the answer to each question would be. We’re therefore not sure there’s sufficient momentum, yet, to ensure the campaign reaches the Ethical Consumer website.

And with a First weekly ticket at £12 within the so-called “green boundary”, do fares for regular travellers offer such poor value, anyway? No doubt partly in response to fares criticisms, yesterday First Yorkshire announced a price freeze, for the “foreseeable future”.

i Fair Fares for All

In the Family Way

York Pullman has taken over France’s Motors. Hmmm. Who’s France’s Motors? I confess I’ve never heard of France’s, based equidistant between Hull and York, though seemingly its goes back to 1927 as a family business. A pretty unremarkable story, then, when all is falling apart around us, owing to arctic conditions, high damage repair bills and weather-weary stay-at-home passengers. And this sort of take-over’s been going on since the 1920s.

Except that France’s Motors was a family owned business of the kind you could still find in reasonable numbers in the 1980s and 1990s. They’re disappearing fast. I might be guessing here, but I suspect there was a certain loyalty to its 14 drivers, *eight* of whom retired upon the take-over announcement. My prediction is that here we have a throwback to previous times when there was a strong bond, a strong loyalty, between proprietor and drivers. Perhaps this is a rare example of a family firm hanging on for the sake of its employees. It’s been known before. Here, loyalty is likely to be a two way street.

I bet the owner won’t miss the telephone ringing at 2200 or even 0200 with a driver who’s got a problem, for that is the lot of the small, family coach proprietor: always on duty, always on call, seven days a week.

Small concerns tend to cite bureaucracy as a determining factor in selling up. The fact that the proprietor is 66 and there’s no family member prepared to take over could be a function of this ever increasing red tape. But it also indicates that there are usually more lucrative and easier ways of making a living without the long hours and marginal rewards associated with coaching.

Purchaser York Pullman is also an old established name, going back to 1926. Or does it? York Pullman disappeared in the early 1990s to be reformed in 2007.

A Week too Early?

The white Christmas we seem to long has arrived a week early. And in many parts of England, it will no doubt stay till Christmas day and beyond.

As today we reach the shortest day of a very long winter, I’m sure blog posts on ice and snow are getting as tiresome as the white stuff itself but I do need to make mention of the sterling efforts made by crews and engineering colleagues in trying to keep some semblance of traffic in far from ideal circumstances. And yesterday was a Monday: buses idle over a frosty weekend exacerbate problems for staff. And passengers expecting Mediterranean conditions aboard instead often encountered Murmansk, such are buses which are largely glass and metal boxes.

In a way, it’s good to have the press’ attention elsewhere. While the media concentrate on stranded Heathrow & Gatwick passengers (not to mention those trying to get *in*), efforts to keep buses moving along the south coast as no doubt elsewhere were nothing short of heroic. Even so, slow general traffic confined to gritted main roads has impeded progress and, it has to be said, buses stuck in some areas haven’t helped.

Meanwhile, as retailers are expected to lose millions in the run up to Christmas, so will the bus industry. The two sectors are inextricably entwined, with up to 30 per cent of town centre shoppers arriving by bus. The stay-at-home weather-related retail downturn is having a considerable impact on bus revenue at a time when severe winter-related costs have increased. Passenger journeys not made today can never be recaptured; they are lost forever. And, as the industry knows only too well, the period up to Christmas is as vital for its good health as it is for the retail sector.

While air passengers complain bitterly of a lack of meaningful information, the same criticism cannot be levelled at the bus industry. Twitter, Facebook and websites are now generally accepted as important tools in letting travellers know of issues. That these are increasingly available on smartphones helps keep one key market segment informed. The other major segment is older people who are unlikely to be as savvy. For them, though, they invariably stay at home unless journeys are essential.

Mind you, there was some consolation. Top Gear’s Clarkson had to abandon his beloved car over the weekend, just like the rest of them. No doubt he will try to blame the gritters. He and I share something in common: we will probably never dream of such a white Christmas ever again.

i Social Media: a operators' guide

Wanted: Municipal operations

It’s not just Stagecoach that’s recently declared it’s in the market to mop up smaller bus operators. Last week, Go Ahead did so, too.

“There are 11 or so council-run services still out there. We tend to be one of the type of people who would pick these up. We keep the branding local but try to run the business better.”

Not that any operator would say “we are simply uninterested in the remaining ragbag of independents”. Indeed, Go Ahead subsidiaries in Plymouth, Brighton, Norfolk, Oxford and the Isle of Wight are either formerly municipal or could so easily appear so. And “trying to run the business better” means a forward-looking business plan but the ditching of any notion of “social dividend”. Swings and roundabouts?

Stating that Go Ahead is “one of the type of people” interested in such operators hints at the likely competition. As opportunities diminish as the cohort of municipals shrinks; and as public limited company operators see the advantages of buying, the bid price is likely to inflate. All the Big Five are likely to show an interest in such purchases, though there will be individual local competition issues facing each local market. But there's also the likes of Transdev, NedRail, Rotala and Centrebus. Probably best to discount Veolia at the moment.

Interesting how the Go Ahead spokesman wasn’t sure of the actual number. There are indeed 11 arms-length council businesses left, including part Transdev-owned Nottingham City Transport. Some will no doubt find their way on the market. Others won’t.

Go Ahead has a clear expectation that councils will be forced to place their municipals up for sale. The paucity especially of capital funding, lack of back office economies and the need to generate funding streams will drive councils to the inevitable sales conclusion.

We last looked at the 11, about a year ago and we reproduce the key elements of this 2,100-vehicle sector, below. Has anything changed since our brief run through? Well, Ipswich Buses almost did. This time last year, Ipswich was to sell a stake in its bus operations. In the event, the council decided against such a transaction.

1. Lothian Buses—award-winning star performer suffers from recession and tram works


2. Nottingham City Transport—already benefits from public-private investment & strong council support


3. Cardiff Bus—rocked by competition concerns. Indications of possible sale somewhat unsettling


4. Reading Buses—slipping high performer battling against recessionary downturn and PR debacle


5. Blackpool Transport—cuts force award winning well-known director off the scene


6. Warrington Borough Transport—strong and consistent performer seemingly bucking usual depressing industry trends


7. Thamesdown Transport—expanding housing & economy can’t disguise some unpalatable network thinning


8. Rossendale Transport—questionable performance from operator surviving sell off debate, for now


9. Ipswich Buses—previously immune, Ipswich follows First in recession led route axing


10. Newport Bus—new management tries patching staffing ills, as X30 gamble wins


11. Halton Transport—investment certainly but very lacklustre performance takes the shine off

i A contributor took a look at the municipal sector 12 months ago. Still very much worth a read

Calling all Experts

Funny how everyone is an “expert”. Take bus “experts”. They know best and although they recognise that few people use a particular service, they still expect it to continue. They come up with pearlers such as “why can’t you take a bus off at eight at night and gives us one at nine in the morning instead”. If it were only that simple. And Iris is one of them.

And with coastal snow & ice overnight Friday/Saturday and more forecast up till Tuesday, suddenly everyone is an expert at dealing with wintry weather. They pass judgement on their highway authority and at the same time on their bus service, not from a position of information but often through ignorance. And here we see similarities between council and bus services: the public views us as no less a public service than winter gritting, libraries, social services and schools.

“Maybe 2cm on Wimborne Road in Poole—not that the gritters have been out!!!”

Really? When this person left his comment at 0909 on Saturday, he’d clearly hadn’t got up early enough yesterday morning. And try salting when the temperature is low and snow falling heavily. Little wonder the council gritters lose ground.

“We had 1cm of snow and some of the buses are not running, that is just stupid, I’m afraid its any excuse now not too work…” Take a look at this video shot in Ankara to see just what could happen if a bus gets out of control in little more than an inche of snow... click here if video fails to launch

What we rarely hear is praise. Yet, we know there will have been a lot of passengers yesterday who will have welcomed the site of their bus coming around the corner. True, some early ones were cancelled on the south coast. But many were out, other than on some untreated roads. And there’ve been inevitable delays. Brighton & Hove used its snow chains to maximum advantage, by running them by connection, on snow-bound sections of route.

“We had 1cm of snow and some of the buses are not running, that is just stupid, I’m afraid its any excuse now not too work…”

This “expert” attitude sums things up pretty well. So, let’s lift a glass to the gritting and bus crews. This time of year, we expect a lot of them. They’re the ones who struggle in when almost everyone else is asleep and safe. In placing themselves at our service, sometimes they place themselves in danger.

Meanwhile, when Monday comes, it’ll be time to assess the revenue implications of severe weather on what should’ve been the busiest Saturday of the year—the Saturday before Christmas. This will undoubtedly have implications on the bottom line...

Christmas Trivia Quiz 2010—answers

Spoiler alert: if you want to see the quiz without the answers, click here

Here are the answers to the 2010 Christmas Trivia Quiz, with thanks to all who left comments on the original.

1. What over the last 12 months or so have the National Express Group, First Group and Go Ahead Group in common that isn’t shared with Stagecoach or Arriva?
They each have or have announced a new chief executive

2. Which bus saw production 50 years ago last year and which competitor that ended up under the same umbrella celebrated the same anniversary this year?
The Leyland Atlantean & Daimler Fleetline, latterly the Leyland Fleetline

3. What percentage uplift is available on BSOG for operators that have real time information systems and a live ITSO smartcard scheme?
10 per cent

4. What is a RAT?
A reimbursement analysis tool

5. What 1970s designed vehicle was marketed as "the British alternative that's going around the world" and as "the British alternative double deck underframe"?
The Ailsa

6. One of the first two second-hand coaches bought by Brian Souter for his earliest 1980 Scotland-London express was a Volvo B58. What was the other?
AEC Reliance

7. Hardcore Ski Limo is an anagram of what important bus industry figure?
Sir Moir Lockhead

8. What is the traffic commissioners’ so-called “Window of Tolerance” for local bus service punctuality?
(a) –5 (early) / +5 (late)
(b) –1/+5
(c) –3/+5
(d) 0 (no early running at all)/+10

9. Provide two bus connections in relation to a “Dog” and “Cornwall”.
Western Greyhound and Greyhound UK - the latter is operated with a Truronian O Licence

10. What is the minimum percentage of punctuality compliance required to avoid any potential fine imposed by the Traffic Commissioner?
(a) 70%
(b) 85%
(c) 95%
(d) 100%

11. How many live local bus registrations were there at 31 March 2010 in the Western Traffic Area?
(a) 973
(b) 1,972
(c) 2,188
(d) 2,791

12. Which transport infrastructure project on the south coast has hit the headlines owing to protests regarding that area’s local bat habitats?
Gosport-Fareham Bus Rapid Transit

13. What piece of equipment is mandatory to be carried on all public service vehicles (PSVs or PCVs)?
(a) First aid kit
(b) Fire extinguisher
(c) Ticket machine
(d) Duty or running board
(a duty board is mandatory on a local bus service)

14. On which day & date next year, 2011, will the usual New Year’s Day Winchester King Alfred Bus Running Day be held?
Sunday 2nd January (sic)

15. What is the maximum route length (in miles) for a registered bus service in order for the service to fall into domestic hours regulations for drivers hours?
(a) 28
(b) 31
(c) 35
(d) 38

16. If an operator is found guilty of breaches the Competition Act by illegally colluding with another bus operator, what is the potential outcome?
(a) A substantial fine
(b) An improvement plan
(c) No penalty other than being frowned upon;
(d) Imprisonment & a fine

17. Deduct the total number of traffic commissioners from the number of traffic areas and then multiply the result by the number of senior traffic commissioners. What is the result?
7-6 = 1 x 1 = 1

18. Unless agreed elsewhere with a third party, under the terms of the Transport Act 1985 how often can an operator amend its fares?
(a) Once a month
(b) On two occasions a year, at fixed by the local transport authority
(c) Quarterly
(d) As and when it chooses

19. Sunday 12th December (today!) is the anniversary of Wilts & Dorset’s More branded services. But in which year did they start?
2004

20. What was the Market Analysis Project-inspired brand name for Hants & Dorset buses operating in and around Basingstoke, and why was the name chosen?
The name was Ventruebus, inspired by Venture Ltd, a former Basingstoke operator once owned by the Red & White group and passed to the original Wilts & Dorset

That Little Statistic

“PASSENGER NUMBERS UP 9% AFTER FIRST YEAR” screamed the Plymouth Citybus headline.

So it is that the first 12 months after its purchase of former municipal Plymouth Citybus and Go Ahead has announced a major increase in passengers. This is commendable, especially in the current economic crisis. The new Citybus management cites reasons such as customer focus, a slightly less risk averse attitude, the start of a vehicle investment programme and network changes.

But, as with all statistics that stand alone, there are some issues.

The press release states, “Passenger numbers have increased over the year following the acquisition of Plymouth Citybus by the Go Ahead Group.” So far, so fair (or should that be so far, so fare?).

Former Wilts & Dorset man and Citybus managing director Andrew Wickham went on to add that key to the growth were “changes to routes and timetables made in July and September” which, between them “have helped to achieve a steady growth in passenger numbers with recent months showing a 9% rise.” So, not over the whole year but since July, then.

The increase is therefore in “recent months”. Since under the terms of its sale Go Ahead was unable to make any network changes for six months, the opportunity for network-driven growth has only been recent. In a sense, this makes it more spectacular. But also statistically less robust. It also needs to be set in context.

• Statistics such as this are notorious over short periods. You need a longer period to let them settle.


• The combative environment within the city, post-First Ugobus, has had an effect. First escalated its competitive city services in the autumn of 2009 as the council announced its “market valuation” exercise. Arms-length Citybus retaliated. You’d expect overall passenger growth but what resulted wasn’t quite enough to sustain a duplicate network. First cut its Ugobus offer in July and a couple of months later dropped four of its Ugobuses altogether. These months happen to coincide with Citybus’ nine per cent. Though a transfer of passengers from First to Citybus cannot account for all the increase, it will have had an effect.


• Citybus has been fairly brutal regarding marginal journeys and services. It has recycled resources into daytime frequencies and Sunday shopping hour buses. The nine per cent growth comes at the expense of the previous “social dividend”.


• Like all claims of passenger growth, no one ever sets it against the context of year-on-year reductions in ridership that urban operators have experienced since the mid-1950s. This escalated sharply from the 1970s. Gratifying though growth is, it also always needs setting against this backdrop of a continued decline in bus use. You can understand why this bit is usually omitted.

Marmite

It has often seemed odd that the bus industry’s favourite marketing & branding specialist, responsible for so many web design improvements, has never had much of a web presence of its own. Till now. We’re talking, of course, of Ray Stenning’s Best Impressions.

Perhaps Best Impressions hasn’t needed a website. Perhaps its bus-side handiwork is enough to market itself. Yet, The Very Best Impressions Company Ltd (as it is officially known) sells itself in other, traditional ways, with a suite of well turned out booklets that demonstrate its abilities, stands at bus shows, the occasional advertisement and so on.

Best Impressions has now remedied this web omission. From November, it has its own website and in spite of owning its domain for a number of years, it still needs to rely on a hyphen between “best” and “impressions”, something of a black mark in internet marketing terms, Yet, most other related domains are already bagged.

With a front page and two items of news, the site is minimal but oh-so-gorgeous. The main feature, though, is a small portfolio of the best of the Best.

Latterly, even this holding page had vanished, leaving nothing. Otherwise, it has been in place from around 2004

I’ve said before that you either like or hate Marmite. You either like or you hate school chemistry. While there are those who find Best Impressions both pricey and samey, with Stenning, Marmite & chemistry is never this black & white. No matter your view, you have to admit that it has impact, that it leaves a lasting Impression.

I’d hire them for this weblog if only I could afford them...

i Best Impressions

By Popular Request

I’ve used it myself before, or phrases like it. I’ve even referred to this sort of thing elsewhere on the blog. “Introduced in response to numerous customer comments” is how Wellglade’s Kinchbus opens its press statement on its brand new 9, a service that competes directly with Premiere’s X9 between Nottingham & Loughborough, once an hourly Arriva service under threat, now seeing up to three buses an hour with two operators.

“Our customers have been saying for some time that they would like to see us providing a direct service to Nottingham from Loughborough and we are delighted to have been able to do this in time for Christmas.”

The use of such typical “by popular request” proclamations when starting a competing service is actually beyond question. Someone, some time has asked for such a service. It’s indisputable and unassailable. The fact that, in this case, it operates five minutes ahead of the opposition may be a coincidence. Lest we forget, the bus industry’s a serious & volatile business where livelihoods are made or not and such tactics have universally been used on both sides of many a battle for passengers. What the Competition Commission will make of this, in 2010, we will perhaps know next month.

And there can be no better reminder of the volatile commercially of the bus industry than the withdrawal, with the ink on the printed timetable barely dry, of Premiere's new 4, between Long Easton & Nottingham. Premiere 4 was treading on its competitor’s toes, Wellglade’s Trent Barton Indigo. Premiere’s competitive action spawned Bargain Bus 4, a second Wellglade Midland General Bargainbus offering, that started two weeks after Premiere’s own.

Premiere allegedly cites the reasons for withdrawal as unrealistically competitive fares, incidents including bus blocking and even threats to staff. Sadly, my experience would suggest that any intimidatory or dangerous behaviour is often two-way and it becomes difficult to untangle who started and who perpetuated it. Road crews become protective and while management might insist on (nay, demand) restraint, this isn’t so easy to enforce and can often only be done in retrospect, through the disciplinary process.

It’s said that within a day of the VOSA cancellation going live, Bargain Bus announced an almost immediate doubling of fares to £1. Still rather good value but it upset several of Bargain Bus’ Facebook followers. Had there been an implication that the 50p fare was long term? Passengers could not surely be so naïve to think that this level was sustainable. This revision also applied to the original Bargain Bus Cotgrave to Nottingham, launched after Premiere began its competitive Red 2 against Trent Barton’s Cotgrave Connection. Wellglade had initially stated to the Competition Commission investigation that it didn't compete on fares.

Fares on Kinchbus 9 are £1 single or 10 tickets for a fiver. Given the distance is about 15 miles, this again seems good value. I wonder whether you can use this fare internally within Nottingham for, surely, this must be cheaper than Nottingham City Transport. Whatever. The press release calls these “introductory fares” but its Facebook page implies otherwise.

Kinchbus 9 started on Monday. It operates hourly, timed at the Loughborough end usually five minutes ahead of Premiere’s X9. Whereas Premiere operates half-hourly, Kinchbus 9 is hourly but it does swap around a bit.

Overdue

Late running seems to be the order of the day in Preston. Omnibuses’ Northern Correspondent reports that a possible announcement about the Stagecoach divestment and the reconstitution of Preston Bus might’ve been made last week, but wasn’t. Nothing emerged, in spite of the date being linked to the announcement of major changes in the city.

Important Information Stagecoach/Preston Bus Tickets

For Stagecoach has entered into what are now very public preparations for the inevitable Competition Commission-enforced split. From last week, Prestonians now either need to buy a Preston Bus or a Stagecoach day or season ticket. Never the twain shall meet, an interesting turn of phrase given the diverse make-up of Preston.

This means the return to the previous position where a ticket sold by one operator is not valid by the other. Those passes still to expire will continue to be honoured by both operations, though there are special conditions for 13-week & annual tickets, after 1st January 2011.

So ends a major benefit of the take-over—network ticketing.

The recent history of the network, which is now progressively pulling apart, is as follows:

• January 2009—Stagecoach purchases Preston Bus for a reported £6½mil, following intense competition on a number of key routes. Stagecoach nevertheless claimed it was only seeking & operating a “minority share” of the overall city market.


• March 2009—Stagecoach rebrands its Preston city services as “Stagecoach Preston Bus”. Under the brand, Stagecoach sensibly adds its own Stagecoach North West suburban services (those extending to the urban areas immediately beyond the city boundary).


• November 2009—the Competition Commission forces Stagecoach to divest. Stagecoach appeals. Stagecoach nevertheless implements plans to manage Preston Bus separately, a condition set of it by the CC.


• June 2010—the original deadline slips as Stagecoach awaits an appeal lodged with the Competition Appeals Tribunal.


• July 2010—After only a partly successful appeal, Stagecoach and the CC agree a slightly smaller divestment than originally directed. This involves the eventual retention by Stagecoach of the 11 (Gamull Lane), once fought over in the recent bus war.


• December 2010—announcement expected. As a precursor, network ticketing changes become effective.

Stagecoach has always claimed that the CC decision on divestiture was “perverse” but, following the appeals tribunal, has smoothed the way for the sales process. Stagecoach said at the time, “Bus passengers, employees and local authorities want a stable, comprehensive network of services and tickets—the very things which Stagecoach has sought to provide.” Given the considerable upheaval in services during the bus war and the traffic commissioner-inspired Lancashire council truce agreement, what will Prestonians make of that statement?

Future Expectations

The $64,000 question is, who will buy? Everyone’s being tight lipped on that, though don’t expect the employee bid to have reached the shortlist.

As for the future, can we also expect a new détente or peaceful co-existence between the two? Any newcomer is likely to be a bigger player than once was Preston Bus. The fact that the war ended the way it did demonstrates that the market isn’t strong enough for competition. May be operators will respect each other’s services—no doubt to the CC’s chagrin.

In 2007, Stagecoach targeted strategic advertisements on billboards and bus shelters on its competitive corridors, initially towards Gamull Lane & Farrington Park

Additional information & 2007 bus images by Omnibuses’ Northern Correspondent

Newport City Trauma

Not all seems to be well in Newport, Wales. The suspension of Newport Transport’s relatively new managing director last week and his resignation on Friday brings with it an air of uncertainty. Everyone’s being tight lipped as to the reasons why. So, what’s going on?

For one thing, there’s been a bus war with Cardiff Bus, on its joint 30 Cardiff-Newport service. It apparently started when Cardiff Bus refused to honour Newport Bus’ Passport smartcard and has escalated since, as Newport Bus will not accept the Cardiff Bus equivalent. Cardiff Bus might have cited a lack of notice and the bringing of a new product to market in an unready state.

Newport Bus is reported to have wheeled out extra resources to duplicate Cardiff Bus service 30 journeys, on the strength that Passport passengers would otherwise be disadvantaged. Cardiff Bus did not retaliate.

And all this was on top of the launch of the X30 direct limited stop Cardiff-Newport service, operated standalone by Newport Bus. Was this another unilateral action on Newport Bus’ behalf? Or did Cardiff Bus judge revenue potential to be poor? Yet, Newport Bus has recently increased its service from every 30 to every 20 minutes.

Another issue is that Newport Bus wanted to cancel an order for half a dozen MAN/Wrightbus Meridian single decks but Wrightbus refused to play, as the vehicles were all but built. Discussions appear ongoing and the latest seems to indicate that the vehicles will now be sold, with Newport Bus making up any losses.

On the plus side, Newport Bus has been applauded for its March 2010 onwards marketing campaign called “You’ll be surprised who you might see…”. Though there’ve been critics about the adoption of the parallel starker green and white livery & logo relaunch, the activity tries to emulate the sort of success achieved by Brighton & Hove’s “I’m on the bus”, of course using local Newport people instead. A lack of web updates is compounded by an offline site pending a major overhaul.

What’s quite telling is an announcement by Cardiff Bus late last week that from next week the impasse on the 30 regarding Cardiff Bus’ and Newport Bus’ smartcards is now resolved. Each will honour the other’s. It seems peace is about to break out again along South Wales’ M4 corridor.

Christmas Trivia Quiz 2010

2010 quiz answers here

Whether you feel you wish to print this off for the office or garage Christmas party is up to you. See how many of these 20 Christmas Trivia Quiz questions you can answer. Readers are welcome to offer their suggestions via the Comments facility. Unless all are guessed correctly, we will give answers in a couple of days.

» See the 2009 Christmas Trivia Quiz

1. What over the last 12 months or so have the National Express Group, First Group and Go Ahead Group in common that isn’t shared with Stagecoach or Arriva?

2. Which bus saw production 50 years ago last year and which competitor that ended up under the same umbrella celebrated the same anniversary this year?

3. What percentage uplift is available on BSOG for operators that have real time information systems and a live ITSO smartcard scheme?

4. What is a RAT?

5. What 1970s designed vehicle was marketed as "the British alternative that's going around the world" and as "the British alternative double deck underframe"?

6. One of the first two second-hand coaches bought by Brian Souter for his earliest 1980 Scotland-London express was a Volvo B58. What was the other?

7. Hardcore Ski Limo is an anagram of what important bus industry figure?

8. What is the traffic commissioners’ so-called “Window of Tolerance” for local bus service punctuality?
(a) –5 (early) / +5 (late)
(b) –1/+5
(c) –3/+5
(d) 0 (no early running at all)/+10

9. Provide two bus connections in relation to a “Dog” and “Cornwall”.

10. What is the minimum percentage of punctuality compliance required to avoid any potential fine imposed by the Traffic Commissioner?
(a) 70%
(b) 85%
(c) 95%
(d) 100%

11. How many live local bus registrations were there at 31 March 2010 in the Western Traffic Area?
(a) 973
(b) 1,972
(c) 2,188
(d) 2,791

12. Which transport infrastructure project on the south coast has hit the headlines owing to protests regarding that area’s local bat habitats?

13. What piece of equipment is mandatory to be carried on all public service vehicles (PSVs or PCVs)?
(a) First aid kit
(b) Fire extinguisher
(c) Ticket machine
(d) Duty or running board

14. On which day & date next year, 2011, will the usual New Year’s Day Winchester King Alfred Bus Running Day be held?

15. What is the maximum route length (in miles) for a registered bus service in order for the service to fall into domestic hours regulations for drivers hours?
(a) 28
(b) 31
(c) 35
(d) 38

16. If an operator is found guilty of breaches the Competition Act by illegally colluding with another bus operator, what is the potential outcome?
(a) A substantial fine
(b) An improvement plan
(c) No penalty other than being frowned upon;
(d) Imprisonment & a fine

17. Deduct the total number of traffic commissioners from the number of traffic areas and then multiply the result by the number of senior traffic commissioners. What is the result?

18. Unless agreed elsewhere with a third party, under the terms of the Transport Act 1985 how often can an operator amend its fares?
(a) Once a month
(b) On two occasions a year, at fixed by the local transport authority
(c) Quarterly
(d) As and when it chooses

19. Sunday 12th December (today!) is the anniversary of Wilts & Dorset’s More branded services. But in which year did they start?

20. What was the Market Analysis Project-inspired brand name for Hants & Dorset buses operating in and around Basingstoke, and why was the name chosen?

I am indebted to an operational director within the UK bus scene for suggesting this topic and for supplying some of the questions

Free Travel—for all

The temporary free Bristol bus service that’s running today as it did yesterday is unlikely to overly trouble First. The free trial operates every half hour, from 1100 to 1500 between Temple Meads and the city’s shopping centre.

First, on the other hand, operates the 8/9 from Temple Meads every six minutes plus, if you walk down the station approach to the A4 Bath Road, there are services 1, 20, 51, 54, 54A, 121, 178, 376, 349 and X39, plus some of A Bus’. First’s services start early and finish late. They also operate on Sundays to Thursdays, too.

The free trial is being operated by Freebus, a co-operative with some pretty lofty ambitions to be “the world's first major non-profit public transport group”. Note the words “major” and “group”. Further, it is said to be “the first serious alternative to the current public/private corporate transport system.”

If the trial proves successful, it could eventually operate six days a week, when sufficient funds have been built up (from April 2011). And there’s the first problem. It will take five months to source the necessary capital.

And here’s a second. The directors of Freebus state that it’s “nonsensical for taxpayers’ money to go to private, profit-making companies” yet Freebus will provide no Sunday service, the very day when services might be classed as needing subsidy. This, surely, is a slight contradiction. And most of First’s Bristol city services operate without subsidy, of course.

“If you are trying to get people out of their cars I think this is a really good way to do it.” Yes, free travel probably would work. It has for those entitled over 60. But what is “free”? Free at the point of use? You’ll be asked for a donation. And Freebus is seeking pledges of financial support.

Indeed, Freebus believes that it needs £25,000 for a six-month service. To me, this sum seems inadequate, even for two 16-seat minibuses. And, here’s another problem. When First’s predecessor Cityline operated 19-seat Mercedes O608D minibuses, replacing conventional Leyland Nationals, the service was often prone to standing passengers, even with high Gen 1 minibus frequencies.

Yet another problem is that, aside from Temple Meads, the service actually goes nowhere. The link between train station and city is important, especially as Temple Meads is some distance on foot. But Freebus doesn’t appear to serve any residential areas. It’s a typical inner-city loop, the sort that has traditionally struggled in other towns and cities (e.g. Bournemouth). Unless, of course, there’s some form of subsidy (e.g. Manchester).

Yet, it’s easy to be dismissive of this sort of service. There are nevertheless those in Bristol who despair at its general bus service. To them, the city is crying out for an alternative. Freebus cites high Bristol fares, high car ownership, a decline in bus patronage and a First monopoly as areas needing tackling. “Initially running with two buses on one circular route, the service will expand.”

So, we’ll have to see, next April, how this service goes. Will it offer a pioneering solution to urban public transport? Can the “free” model work? Is there a role for co-operatives and community interest companies? Can they raise enough capital to compete like-for-like with commercial operators? Or, to offer the sort of service passengers expect—robust 18-hour timetables, seven days a week—can this only ever operate on a commercial basis, with appropriate fares charged?

i Freebus

Don’t Let it Stop You

Brighton & Hove has upstaged the industry again—at any rate, certainly those on the south coast who are used to milder winters. During the recent arctic blast (that mercifully seems to be abating), B&H used some of its six & two dozen sets of snow chains on its fleet, enabling drivers of some services to carry on if not as normal as possible then certainly more safely.

Brighton: transformed into a south coast winter resort

It beats cancelling buses. It gets some good publicity. It helps people who rely on buses get home. But does it mean a smooth ride?

Snow chains can’t prevent other vehicles from blocking your path or the general traffic chaos resulting from heavy snowfall. And they can’t offer any guarantees.

We all know, of course, that the industry cannot win in a snowy situation. It’s criticised if it cancels and if it soldiers on. Fitting snow chains is a noble effort from a public-spirited organisation but I wonder whether they simply raise passenger expectations beyond what is deliverable. This is the more so as passengers melt away in poor conditions quicker than a thaw. And indeed might it actually add to the risks, by sending buses to areas long abandoned by other traffic or by ferrying passengers when it would be safer not too.

What do readers think about snow chains on buses? Is there a role for them?

Meanwhile, watch this video of a B&H bus getting stuck in snow. The tenor of the producer is mocking and in spite of the warmth B&H enjoys within the wider industry, this isn’t always replicated in the cold light of day in Brighton. Actually, the driver and service crew between them deserve admiration for tackling the route in such conditions and in forming a rescue. They are true public servants doing more than their best to help the people of Brighton in somewhat challenging circumstances.

An Unusual Purchase

A post yesterday on take overs and what should come along? News that Stagecoach Arriva has taken over Potteries independent Wardle’s.

With a handful of mainly subsidised bus services, 64-vehicle Wardle’s is a gaily liveried operator that actually specialises more in school transport and paratransit (i.e. special needs schooling and social services transport) than conventional services. While the fleet is said to hold 31 buses and six coaches, significantly there are almost as many minibuses, most of which are in less cheerful dealer stock white.

And this is the interesting part. The purchase takes new owners Arriva Midlands into a new area: special needs and NHS work. Indeed, Wardle’s particular niches also appear to include the delivery of school meals in Stoke on Trent. Little wonder, then, that Arriva has pledged to keep the brand identity. Arriva originally promised this in Milton Keynes with M K Metro, of course, but the difference with Wardle Transport is that over half of its activity is highly specialised.

Arriva will therefore compete in the strong paratransit minibus market, something that is flourishing at the moment. It’s very cut-throat, with the recession ensuring a range of existing and new own account & small operators are keen to secure a steady local authority contract or two. No doubt this will help drive prices down.

Is this the start of a new business direction for Arriva, in Staffordshire, south Cheshire and indeed elsewhere in England? The hint comes in a statement from chairman Doug Wardle. “Together, Wardle Transport and Arriva Midlands make a very good combination. Both businesses will be able to learn from each other, ensuring customers will continue to be served in the same dedicated way.” Interesting. It takes a very special operation to deal with the individual attention & high demand failures associated with tailored paratransit and it is a skill you don’t immediately associate with any operator respected for handling huge garage rollouts each morning. But why not? We wish Arriva well in this new sphere.

We are down to one of Monday’s comments that seem to have disappeared and stubbornly won’t come back. Please don’t let that put you off. I can reinstate. It seems to be related to long comments with the error message on the left.

Cheque Book Ready?

The media tends to report operator results days before they are actually published. Today’s Stagecoach interims will therefore come as anything but a surprise. They’ve been out there in brief since at least Sunday.

What the reports suggest is that Stagecoach is sniffing around for bus company bargains. Brian Souter is reportedly on the purchase trail. To the uninitiated, this may seem new. Souter, though, has been buying (and selling, and sometimes buying again) bus companies by fair means or foul as long as he’s been running them. The renewed reports of purchases to come spring from the recent Macquarrie deal and the current state of the industry.

This is always assuming that there's something to buy. The opportunities available have somewhat diminished and the competition for them could now be quite intense. But Stagecoach sees smaller operators struggling under the weight of cuts in both free travel and BSOG, something Stagecoach says might hasten the demise of some mid-sized fleets. And the municipal sector could again begin to look fragile and vulnerable as austerity bites. Long live economies of scale?

But will this sort of talk simply antagonise the Competition Commission? Souter is already its most vehement critic (something that may be a mutual thing?). The CC’s own interims (perhaps preliminaries might be a better word) are due in January 2011. Might it recommend the reverse, that operators divest and split up? Will it suggest that there’s a lack of competition?

Not everywhere’s like Bournemouth or Oxford, though. Deutsche Bahn, sorry, Deutsche *Bank* recently stated that, “It may be the case that one third of local transport authorities have just one operator because they cannot profitably sustain two. It should also be remembered that the private car remains a formidable competitor.”

We await the CC’s view on this. In the meantime, Stagecoach under Souter operates decent networks with flair and low fares. Is it set to expand while it can?