Friday, 26 November 2010

Another Rural Crisis

A report this week suggests that the cost of living in rural areas is 20 per cent higher than in towns. Higher fuel and travel costs are cited.

You can’t take £180mil out of the bus industry from April 2011 and £240mil from 2012 without experiencing some considerable pain. The second figure relates to a 20 per cent reduction in BSOG of £60mil added to the first figure. The first is the possible saving outside London following the DfT’s new free travel reimbursement rates.

No surprises: the worst reductions in free travel will fall outside the large city regions. Here, routeONE suggests that this may be a reduction in rural areas by as much as 40 per cent. The CPT suggests the new rules will pay “so little for passengers on longer routes that it will be uneconomic...”. Will this inevitably lead to something of a rural crisis? Don’t expect local government to help: with its own cuts of 28 per cent, it will collectively look to reduce rather than increase its bus service funding.

This reminds me of the very real crisis in shire county bus services of exactly 40 years ago. Then, local government *did* help.

Back in 1970, Britain’s non-Metropolitan bus services were in the hands of the National Bus Company. For up to 50 years, core & urban surpluses had sustained deeper rural services. As the sixties elapsed, this was increasingly unsustainable. Inflation-busting fares increases and a better standard of living were eroding profitable passengers to the extent it was becoming impossible to rely on cross-subsidy. And, NBC subsidiaries needed to break even year on year.

Operators were already helping themselves: regular fares increases, accelerated OMO and a steady reduction in PVR. Yet, matters were worsening.

Recognising this, the government offered a 50:50 rural support package, jointly with councils. Though this wasn’t enough, it did mitigate the worst cuts.

Even so, cutting operators came under scrutiny and indeed considerable criticism. There was much contention, as communities accused their operator of issuing an ultimatum. Operators, on the other hand, argued that it was up to the whole community to support ailing rural services and not just urban passengers. They might’ve added, had they thought, it was socially unacceptable for the worst off urban users to pay higher fares to support people in the countryside.

Many in the community called for:

  • Smaller operators to take over. The willingness to operate upto 18 hours a day on stage work was so unlikely that this was but a marginal solution. With a degree of condescension, NBC considered smaller operators well-intentioned amateurs.

  • Minibuses and taxis, rather than larger buses. These could not cope with peak loadings, especially at school times (by then the only journeys that were full).
Local councils begrudgingly coughed up less than operators needed but more than councils wished to pay. We started the era of network support and a crisis was averted. The rural industry survived. Crisis averted.

But it wasn’t long before urban services also turned loss making. Therefore, in 1974, the government gave transport authorities powers to support the entire network. After that, well, we seemed to lurch from one crisis to the next, throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. ’Twas ever thus.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Umm..how about getting all the 'free' users to pay 50% of the normal adult fare...just a mad idea.

Time the big groups set up some taxi rural firms ?

A Cumbrian said...

Not gonna happen. Cuts to free bus travel (at least, free bus travel 0930-2300 Mon-Fri and all day Sat and Sun) are unrealistic - there is a strong pensioners lobby (let's not forget, it makes pensioners happy) and it would be considered incongruous with government goals for 'green' travel. Further, if 'no better or worse off' actually works then it shouldn't make operators any better off by removing it.

Frankly, more passengers on buses is probably a good thing regardless.

Stevie D said...

@A Cumbrian:
Further, if 'no better or worse off' actually works then it shouldn't make operators any better off by removing it.

It's already pretty doubtful whether "no better or worse off" is actually taking place on a lot of routes, and if the reimbursement is cut further then it's pretty clear that operators will be worse off.

Maybe operators could ask for a voluntary donation of 50% of the fare from old people to support the service?

Anonymous said...

First D&C are withdrawing a commercial route (no 48 Plymouth to Wembury) on the grounds that it is no longer sustainable as a result of the concessionary fares reimbursement being insufficient.

redundant soon said...

Welcome to the world of the Lib - Dem coalition where the only thing that counts is reducing spending.

I hope all the people who voted for these parties are happy with the outcomes.

Anonymous said...

OH DEAR THOSE POOR BIG THREE BUS OPERATORS!!!

Anonymous said...

If operators are worse off - and I appreciate that they don't know if they will be yet - then it's their own responsibility to take the case to court. I know the process is slow and expensive, but would result in compensation if the no better or worse off principle has been violated and the hug groups should be able to afford it.

The real problem is that levels of paid passengers have collapsed, I suspect. Would the operators *really* be running the service without *any* concession fares scheme at all? Would there be anyone to run the service for anyway?

Anonymous said...

BUT lets be honset the route which are getting withdrawn because the pass no longer pay, well withdraw the routes then, as there were never commercial in the first place!

RC169 said...

Anonymous said...

"BUT lets be honset the route which are getting withdrawn because the pass no longer pay, well withdraw the routes then, as there were never commercial in the first place!"

That isn't necessarily the case. If the route is popular with visitors from outside the immediate area, and free travel reimbursement does not cover the full value of the fares that would otherwise have been paid by the pensioners, etc, then it is quite possible that total revenue for the route will fall - and that could easily turn a profitable service into a loss-maker.

In the final analysis, if the revenue for a route (wherever and whomever it comes from) exceeds the cost of operating it, then the service is profitable. You cannot say that a service is not commercial just because a part of the revenue comes from free travel reimbursements.

realitycheck said...

Announced this week:
"First D&C are withdrawing a commercial route (no 48 Plymouth to Wembury) on the grounds that it is no longer sustainable as a result of the concessionary fares reimbursement being insufficient."

And no doubt more will follow!

A Cumbrian said...

RC169: "In the final analysis, if the revenue for a route (wherever and whomever it comes from) exceeds the cost of operating it, then the service is profitable. You cannot say that a service is not commercial just because a part of the revenue comes from free travel reimbursements."

No better of worse off is for any statutory concessionary travel scheme (not 'no better or worse off than how it was under half fares'). It could be argued that there would be very, very few elderly passengers on buses in such a case in which case there would be only a small number of commercial services.