The premium for a hybrid over a conventionally engineered double deck is said to be £110,000. This puts the price of a hybrid decker in the region of £295,000 and more. Research published by TfL suggests that the saving on fuel amounts to £5,000 per annum. To pay for itself, this will take 22 years, some seven years beyond the expected life of a *standard* bus in front line duty. Routemasters aside, London’s diesel buses thus far don’t seem to last even that long, before being cascaded. And who knows the life expectancy of the hybrid equipment and what refurbishment or renewals will be required. Or whether there’s a second hand market, outside London.
Is it worth it? Only if:
- The government’s green bus fund covers the difference between conventional and hybrid technology. The doubling of London’s hybrid fleet by 56 buses to be delivered this year is part funded by the government.
- It allows both the manufacturing and operating industries to understand and improve upon the technology.
- This helps build volume that will eventually reduce the otherwise high unit costs.
- Leasing companies begin to understand hybrid vehicles’ residual values. They are currently ultra-conservative about RVs, as they don’t yet see whether there’s any after market in or beyond London.
Meanwhile, Arriva has cut its fleet carbon emissions by 1¾ ounces per mile, not on its bus fleet but the cars it runs for bus & rail managers. 400 cars travelling, say, 15,000 each saves 1,050,000 oz or about 30 tons of CO2. E&OE.

6 comments:
Carbon emission reduction is equal to fuel consumption reduction. As far as government intervention is considered... what would the fuel saving be if it weren't for BSOG?
I believe that the fuel savings with hybrid cars are also not as great as anticipated; and there is also the issue of replacement of the batteries at some point in the vehicle's life. The extra complexity may also increase maintenance costs.
On the other hand, if the price of fuel rises, then the additional cost of the hybrid might be repaid more quickly than the 22 years that you suggest. However it seems that it will, at best, be finely balanced - and that equivalent savings may be achieved by other means such as lighter weight vehicles. One cannot but wonder if hybrids are not, in fact, a blind alley?
Hybrid may very well be transient technology, with hydrogen being the real low carbon alternative to the internal combustion engine. However, it's going to be a while before it becomes anywhere near a reasonable cost and in the meantime I feel it's worth pursuing hybrid technology.
Hybrid technology, hopefully, could very well become cheaper quite quickly. With Euro 6 increasing fuel consumption over Euro 5 I think its worth the government trying to kick-start hybrid buses and hopefully get production and leasing costs down.
Peter said...
"Hybrid may very well be transient technology, with hydrogen being the real low carbon alternative to the internal combustion engine."
But therein lies part of the problem. If (and I suspect it is a big 'if') hydrogen really is the answer, and hybrid systems are likely to be obsolete within the foreseeable future, then there is little incentive to invest in them. The manufacturers of such systems will probably have an even longer payback period for their investment than the operators of the vehicles produced.
Secondly, there does not seem to be very much (if any at all) work being done on applying hybrid systems to lorries. The bus operators are thus going to have to bear the costs, which for other technologies (including the various Euro classifications) have been shared with lorries. Given the greater numbers of lorries, that is a considerable disadvantage.
Also, given that lorries will largely not use this technology, the overall benefit (in terms of reduced air pollution) will be negligible except in those few places where buses make up a significant proportion of the traffic - so, basically, a few streets in London.
Perhaps the obesity crisis is having a bearing on miles per litre ? Let's face it, carrying the weight of two normal adults for the price of one ...or less if on a pass...can't make good economics ?
When did a bus last get checked for being overloaded by weight rather than overloading by headcount ?
Anonymous said...
"When did a bus last get checked for being overloaded by weight rather than overloading by headcount ?"
Have a look at the post on this blog for 18 July - just ten days ago!
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