As hard-pressed operators grapple with the recessionary downturn in passengers, is the “Oxford Solution” (as we called it, in April) the first of many? Is it the end of deregulation or a new phase in local bus service provision? The threat of forcing operators to run a shuttle bus service between a new out-of-centre terminus and Oxford city centre appears to be the main stimulus for a ground breaking agreement in the city.
Welcomed by passengers and the county council, from the autumn, the Oxford Bus Company and Stagecoach will run joint timetables along the four busiest competitive corridors into the city. This is likely to be a “new era” in which:
- Passengers will see network benefits. While awaiting their return bus, they will no longer feel frustration that the first arrival is the “wrong” one. Tickets will be co-ordinated and inter-available.
- Combined frequencies will improve, though fewer buses overall per hour will operate.
- Operators will make substantial savings while actually offering a better service. The overall fleet will reduce by about nine per cent. The Oxford Bus Company is said to replace 34 vehicles with 20 new ones; Stagecoach similarly will bring is 26 new vehicles to replace 35 buses.
- Operators avoid the stalemate where, in the face of rising costs, they cannot alone cut frequencies or increase fares for fear of losing market share.
- The county council will see a reduction in city centre bus traffic, something of an aspiration.
- Operators can and will use part of the associated savings to invest (£10mil in 46 new vehicles, no doubt assisted by the DfT’s green fund). Capacities per hour are nevertheless expected to rise.
Oxford has been held aloft as a paragon of deregulation, with two operators competing intensely and offering what amounts to a virtuous uplift in quality. It started in 1987 when Harry Blundred began competing against established City of Oxford under the Thames Transit brand, passing to Stagecoach 10 years later.
It’s a model not often replicated elsewhere. Too often, the market place cannot support such competition, quality or otherwise, and both parties invariably suffer. Not in Oxford, till now at any rate. Even here, the recession is taking its toll in terms of either reversing or flattening some of the growth over the last 10 years.
One reason why Oxford is different is the number of relatively affluent but mobile-poor students. Another is the county council’s policy of making access to Oxford city centre difficult for private motorists. This policy continues but the county council has hardened its approach towards buses. Last February, after threats that buses would be marginalised, saw the two bus operators making a similar proposal to now. Oxfordshire chose to ignore the operators’ pleas, closing some city stops. The council has nevertheless helped to negotiate the autumn solution. Plans to relegate eastbound services to a terminus well away from the heart of the city, providing passengers with a shuttle link, have now been squashed. Such a development would’ve been disastrous for passengers, profits and would reverse modal shift.
7 comments:
Brilliant!
The only question is why has it taken operators, local authorities, government, competition authorities etc. 24 years to come up with this triumph of common sense?
They say you can never please everyone - which is of course normally true. But, here for once I think you can. As the blog post alludes to, it is seriously difficult to identify anyone who loses as a result of this deal.
Wasn't this deemed to be 'anti competitive' in the past? Collusion between operators was illegal unless part of a SQP or VQP, and even that had to be led by the local authority.
The students in Oxford are a bit peculiar. The relevant ones are largely Brookes', largely catered for by the Brookes Bus network. Oxford Uni students tend to (1) live centrally and/or (2) live in the near sticks and study fairly distant (in the centre) from the bus routes. Consequently, they cycle. Also there is no discount bus ticket for Uni (not Brookes) students.
Most bus passengers are the relatively poor residents of the sticks, who (for all its failings) shop/work in the city centre. Radial links are almost all there is. This simplification is fairly straightforward, involving the 3/4 (Rose Hill), 2/7 (Kidlington), 1/5 (Blackbird Leys) and 7C/8/9 (Barton, and Risinghurst) where the operators run identical routes. Where accessibility planning might be used and bus routes are more diverse then things would be significantly more complicated. It will be interesting, too, to see what happens to fares. An increase (as monopolistic provision would anticipate) seems likely unless it is regulated against.
Furthermore, it is unclear what might happen on other corridors where buses of the different operators diverge at the end, such as the Woodstock Road (10 Oxford Buses, 5 Stagecoach), Botley Road (6-8 Oxford Buses, 5 Stagecoach). One would wonder if operator network-wide ticketing would remain.
Also other operators (including Arriva on London Road) are present to differing degrees of triviality on all the corridors concerned, but they might be slowed by additional passengers.
I would rather doubt that there are many other cases where a solution of this nature could be applied on such a large scale - individual routes maybe, but, as you say, the situation in Oxford is virtually unique. The proposals do seem to have some features similar to the Monmouthshire Valleys co-ordination scheme involving Red & White and Western Welsh in the mid-1960s. It's an opportunity for operators to rationalise without detriment to the service level, but such opportunities don't often come up.
It does also seem that both the city of Oxford, and the county, have over the years been particularly 'blessed' with politicians who have no understanding of bus operation, but I suppose that shouldn't surprise me - for one thing, I have seen Oxford referred to as a 'land of Carfaxtories'!
It just shows how ludicrous the OFT's decision to ask the Competition Commission to investigate the lack of competition between bus operators is!
How on earth can the OFT ask the CC to investigate while giving this scheme its blesssing. the scheme is clearly worthy, sensible, and ensures no wastage and unnecessary duplication of service, so what on earth do the OFT base their referral to the CC on!
Perhaps now is time for First to enter the scene in Oxford, and break up this new cosy little cartel then ? Or is de-reg finished ?
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