Minibus Futures

Stagecoach has in recent years been a fan of the Optare Solo minibus. Stagecoach is ahead of Arriva in ordering most of this type. After that comes a plethora of smaller concerns, who largely have taken delivery via Mistral in the days of its cosy relationship with Optare, one that not every small operator welcomed.

Stagecoach’s recently announced a staggering and recession-busting £71mil order for over 400 buses. No other operator (and certainly not First) is prepared to commit so much. Of the 404 buses ordered, 200 are double decks, 115 single decks, 43 midi buses, and 45 coaches. Oh, and a solitary Optare Solo minibus. This means Optare gets an order for 11 vehicles in all, 10 of which are Versas. Given the Souter tie up with ADL, it’s perhaps unsurprisingly that ADL/Plaxton gets the lion’s share, at 393.

But why the sharply reduced order for Solos? Why the sudden switch away from minibuses? It’s a moot point as to what constitutes a mini- or a midi-bus but I’m using Stagecoach’s own definition (which refers to the E200 as a midibus and the Solo as a minibus).

Are we seeing the end of the minibus revolution that started in Exeter in 1985 with Gen 1 so-called bread vans? This morphed into the the Mini Pointer Dart in 1989 and later into the SLF Solo in 2000. With free travel capacity becoming an issue, operators like Go North East, for example, have already declared that they wish to replace their minibuses with larger vehicles; new deliveries designed to see off older, larger buses have instead brought forward a withdrawal in minibuses. The 12m bus is also doing well and there’s even evidence of a renewed interest in provincial double decks.

While Stagecoach’s order is good news for the manufacturing sector, it’s not such good news for Optare whose Versa, though selling in reasonably strongly, and poorer selling Tempo could never match the Solo’s strength.

The Solo is an extremely flexible minibus, from 19 to some 33 seats, in two widths.

Stagecoach had also previously announced a recent order for Astromegas for its Oxford Tube.

Private to State to Private

The early 21st century bus industry consolidation continues apace with news affecting one of England’s most unusual operators.

While Plymouth Citybus and Rossendale Transport continue to make news owing to their potential moves to the private sector, TfL owned 113-vehicle East Thames Buses will from September make history as the only post Transport Act 1985 former private sector operator to transfer to state control and back again. The TfL process was similar to that at Rossendale and Plymouth—though expressions of interest turned to a sale. The buyer is Go Ahead’s London General that, this week, lost the artics on its route 507 and will shortly do so on the 521. Go Ahead is now marginally London's biggest single operator.

Insignificant itself in terms of the London market, ETB has as large a fleet as Rossendale Transport. It was created by London Regional Transport in 1999 (the year of London's first SLF double decks) upon the collapse of Harris Buses Ltd because, at the time, no operator was immediately able to take over. First Group was interested before administration but not afterwards. Harris had entered the London bus market in 1997, grown rapidly to 75 vehicles and vanished almost as quickly.

What made successor ETB unique was that in 1999 it effectively become "nationalised" into *state*control. No other operator has done so since before the privatisation of 1986 and beyond. At the time of ETB’s creation, London Regional Transport was under the government and not a passenger transport authority. It was only one year later that LRT came under the newly created London Assembly.

Ten years on, how things change. TfL loses what is often referred to as its operator of last resort, a means of ensuring the market works as well as it should which, as the total number of London operators declines further, means the sale is a risk for TfL, but not a high one.

All management and staff will be TUPE-ed across, after which expect the usual rationalisation which, with a sale of assets, is expected to realise £30mil over nine years. TfL cite corporate support services cuts, lower operating contracts though economics of scale and no direct fleet replacement costs. In the case of the last, such costs are hidden within the contracts themselves.

Teeth that Bite

The recession continues to bite. Demand reduces and operators the length & breadth of the land continue to examine or implement mitigating measures. One of the ironies of life is that when there is the faintest whiff of a service cut, each letter of complaint invariably points to one thing: “I thought the government was trying to encourage more use of public transport”.

A good point and one that’s not immediately easy to answer. Sustainability is one thing but the bus service, too, needs to achieve that sustainability. There remain no quick fixes in shoring up a marginal or loss-making bus service.

It’s the same on the Isle of Wight at the moment where staff at wind-turbine manufacturer Vestas are sitting in because the company wishes to close its facility. On the face of it, it's ludicrous and shortsighted to force skilled “green collar” workers onto the street when we talk so much about renewable energy. Yet Vestas, like bus operators, have to consider the here and now as well as the future. Neither can neglect commercial sustainability.

In the same way, general businesses make decisions about sustainability that can seem at odds with government thinking on the environment. They rationalise offices or branches by closing or merging. This forces workers to travel further or to destinations perhaps less easily accessible by public transport.

The closure of a local business can have a devastating impact on a bus service. A worker who previously used a bus week in week out may be forced to find an alternative. 48 weekly tickets over 10 years sees a potential loss of £8,000 revenue, forever.

Thus, we still have our reliance on the private car. Society knows it needs to reduce its impact on carbon emissions but in so many ways does not make it easy for individuals to do so. This is society’s problem, not the bus operator’s. Operators have a duty to shareholders to make a contribution on capital invested and return a profit. Operators whose employees might be dubbed the original green collar workers can make a significant impact on carbon emission reductions but they aren’t so magnanimous in the teeth of recession that in doing so they can threaten their businesses.

Is Small Beautiful?

Context: as predicted here, it was revealed on Friday that Jorge Cosmen has assembled a private equity consortium to take over National Express. Also predicted, yesterday saw Stagecoach coming out as a potential suitor whether for those businesses Cosmen may not want—the bus businesses—or the lot. In terms of buses, this could easily reduce the Big Five to the Bigger Four. What future, then, for our smaller operators?

Two municipal operators over 300 miles apart. Two different types of operation: one urban, the other a mix of urban and inter-urban. Two conservative administrations. Two looking to test the waters regarding a sale to the private sector. Two campaigns to keep the buses in house.

One is Plymouth Citybus, the other Rossendale Transport.

Though nothing seems to have emerged officially from Rossendale council, it’s believed that the council has now shelved its plans to privatise, after the marketing testing exercise revealed that valuations did not come up to expectations. Campaigners say that local service delivery has won over corporate greed. Or it may simply be that potential buyers don't rate the return on investment.

Meanwhile, campaigners in Plymouth battle on and will no doubt seize upon Rossendale to counter the pro-privatisers who look to Chester, Eastbourne, Bournemouth and elsewhere.

The council has recently reflected upon the sale of its arms length concern. Note the unusual advertised terminus, "Water"

Yet, in a difficult economic climate for bus services and in world where in future we may see the emergence of not five but four or even three major players, in a world ever looking to economies of scale, how safe is a 100-vehicle operation spread over two depots, such as Rossendale’s? All you can say is that it’s certainly so at the moment.

Never far away from the Pennines, in Rawtenstall

It’s tempting to speculate what would’ve become of the former Rawtenstall and Haslingden Corporations (who shared a general manager) had SELNEC and Greater Manchester PTE boundaries moved just a mile or two north of Ramsbottom to engulf the two smaller municipals. Services would by now be operated by First Group. The boundary didn’t move and the municipals remained as Rossendale. Post deregulation, Rossendale Transport doubled its vehicle size and expanded considerably, outside its core routes. In fact, it has taken full advantage of deregulation, not unlike the larger groups.

A hoarding in Rawtenstall depicts Rossendale’s transport heritage as one of the last to operate exposed front buses regularly. There’s an up-to-date Lancashire United vehicle that serves Rawtenstall three times an hour. Evidence of the area’s tram heritage is still visible between the setts in Rawtenstall’s main street

Photos: Omnibuses’ Northern Corespondent

Bendies Bow Out

Today, London sees the first substitution in of rigid conventional buses replacing those unloved bendy buses. London General’s Red Arrow commuter route 507 from Victoria to Waterloo is now the beneficiary of rigid rather than articulated Mercedes Benz Citaros.

Actually, the transformation in theory took place on Saturday, upon TfL’s introduction of a new weekend 507 service on what has to date been Mondays to Fridays only.

Bendies RIP 2002-2009. In 2002, Red Arrow routes 507 and 521 were the first to receive artics. After the 507 is converted back, the 521 which also serves Waterloo will follow

What’s happened here is that the new Mayor is committed to spend a reputed £60mil in removing bendies by 2011, though this may take till 2015. Is this a whim? No. He has a clear mandate following bendies being central to his election campaign.

To convert the 507 route, TfL has increased:

• The PVR from nine to 15 and, overall, this increases the amount of roadspace taken up by the previously articulated 507s by one whole artic.


• The frequency from every five to three to four minutes at its height.


• Bus miles by a third, though remember this includes new weekend running.


• Peak passenger capacity by three per cent.


• Its premium per annum of £215,000 p.a. to replace the existing artics with new rigids.
  

The 12m Citaros will seem long to Londoners’ eyes. Obviously, not as long as the 18m bendies but, to date, London has few 12m vehicles. Given their rear overhand and long wheelbase, how more manoeuvrable are these vehicles when compared to bendies? Do more rigids increase risks than fewer artics? And will they increase rather than reduce congestion? Who other than TfL knows at this stage.

507 route as portrayed on Whatbus?!

One reason campaigners cite for the removal of artics is fares evasion. Well, to cope with the crush loadings seen at peak, the Red Arrow Citaro 507 rigids will unorthodoxly allow boarding as well as alighting at the centre exits. Those who travelled free on an artic on Friday can therefore easily continue to do so on a rigid today. Balanced against this, however, is the high proportion of commuters using the 507 whose season tickets already include their bus fare. The proportion of fares evasion on the 507 is lower than average, in any case.

The 507 isn’t suitable for double decks as it shares resources with the single deck only 521 though this will hardly stop traditionalists continuing to call for decker reintroduction. This is because the rigid Citaro mirrors the London Transport AEC single deck Red Arrows of the 60s and 70s in offering a good deal of reservoir standing space and few seats—now 21 to be exact. Passengers dislike standing though they’re surely used to it on the 507. But a 10m double deck seating 75+ would be a disaster on such a short distance, high footfall route. With few seats downstairs on a decker these days, you’re no better off. Because passengers continually board and alight over what is no more than a 20 minute journey, there’s no incentive to mount the stairs. Those wishing to will simply slow everyone down as they fight their way through standing passengers and try to negotiate opposing passengers on the stairs themselves.

All this leaves the knotty question of what TfL will do with its young, redundant artics. Adverts in the trade press have failed to shift them. Meanwhile, even on Friday, London Travelwatch is still questioning the value to the public purse of the withdrawal programme and there are hints emerging that TfL may yet retain some of them in service...

1909, 1919, 1929 & 2009

1929

As the crowds gather in what’s likely to be a very damp Plymouth later today to reflect upon the formation 80 years ago of the Western National Omnibus Company Ltd and its sister Southern National, it’s also worth looking a little further back at its antecedents.

1909

The “National” name appeared on buses in 1909 exactly 100 years ago this year, in London, as the National Steam Car Co Ltd. At the time when others were experimenting with the internal combustion engine National Steam Car Co, as the name suggests, believed that it could operate far more effectively under steam than behind a horse. It was an early example of VHS versus Betamax and the combustion engine won.

1919

It was the strangulation of the London market that led the National to look elsewhere. The National established its first base in the west country 90 years ago, in 1919. This was north of Bristol, not where you would tend to associate with WNOC. The vehicles there deployed were doubtless petrol, not steam.

Meanwhile, expansion in what was to become WNOC's heartland didn’t start till the establishment of Taunton, Bridgwater and Yeovil branches from 1920. Services into Devon, Plymouth & Cornwall followed only upon the take-over in 1927 and 1928 of Hardy-Colwills and Devon Motor Transport.

2009

Before we become too nostalgic about WNOC, we ought to remember that from the late 1960s, the company gradually became one of National Bus Company’s lamest of lame ducks, seeing closures and withdrawals almost up to the present day. Now, though, it looks as if First Devon & Cornwall is largely stabilised even to the extent on Wednesday of being commended in the Public Transport Operator of the Year category in the National Transport Awards… something unthinkable more than three years ago. Oh, and Devon council won the local authority of the year.

It may seem somewhat strange that successor First has this year painted a Dennis Trident into 80th anniversary livery, till you remember that WNOC was actually an advocate of Dennises. Not sure about East Lancs bodywork, though.

Photo: Plymothian Transit

College Specials

This September, Transdev Yellow Buses will work in partnership with Bournemouth & Poole College to provide four new, dedicated college bus services. They give journey opportunities previously largely only available to those who cold change buses. Each is currently being marketed by the college on a first-come-first-served basis and when the expected step entrance three Dennis Darts and one Volvo Citybus are full, they’re full. Success will mean that the college can run these services during the following academic year. They may even see an expansion.

The services themselves will extend the white Your Bus sub-brand to include return journeys from Swanage, Blandford Forum and Verwood to the college’s Lansdown and Poole campuses. It’s rare indeed to see TYB or its successor operating registered local or licensed stage carriage services so far from home. Regrettably, though, that from Swanage passes through Wareham, Lytchett Matravers & Upton rather than over the ferry. It joins the Your Bus 19 which, following a school run, returns with shoppers to the Bournemouth area from Lytchett Minster via Upton.

Route 4 sees TYB’s return to Throop.

Of note is the fare structure. All fares are subsidised even to the extent that some are offered free of charge, for those who meet an age criterion and are on means tested benefits. Others pay no more than £250 for the year (under 19) or £325 (over 19). That approximately equates to a daily *maximum* of £1.80. Payment is accepted by instalment. For those worried about missing their bus, there’s even a so-called “wakey wakey” text service: the earliest of the four leaves Swanage at 0710.

Nothing so swish as an Optare Versa on the college routes

We all know that college students can reconsider after Christmas. Though the recessionary times in which we live may reduce the drop out rate, it’s interesting to note that the college will reimburse fares at *half* the remainder of the year only if the student drops out but not if if mum decides to drop little Johnny off instead.

Marc West, TYB’s planning & schedules manager said, “We’re delighted to secure this contract and look forward to working closely with Bournemouth & Poole College on making these services a success.”

Bidding War?

When a commenter on here recently stated that National Express West Midlands’ MCW Metrobuses might well outlive the National Express Group, it does appear that his words were prophetic.

The National Express Group announced yesterday that it was being courted by an undisclosed suitor. Many in the industry wondered whether they actually meant an undisclosed Souter for, since NatEX Group rebutted First Group (and First then declared it had become disinterested), who else is there?

Plenty of potentials, actually, the more so should NEG sell off its bus operations piecemeal. But Stagecoach seems the most likely within the transport sector. Who knows whether former Alsa supremo Jorge Cosmen may have a role. And what about private equity (equity raised by institutional investors that is not publicly traded)? In spite of predictions that private equity companies could in the future invest in transport, we’ve not heard a lot about this since Macquarrie took over Stagecoach’s London interests.

There may yet be a bidding war for NEG. Till then, the Metrobus lives on.

Centro Replies

Regular readers will recall that I emailed Centro the West Midlands PTE following this post on photography in its bus stations, which drew 11 reader comments. I received a Centro reply on Friday.

Firstly, please accept my apologies for the delay in responding formally. I had initially passed your comments to our Bus Stations Manager and have been awaiting comments to allow me to respond in full.

I’m loathed to raise the issue of the dreaded missing apotrophe again!

We were pleased to note that our staff members at West Bromwich and Wednesbury Bus Stations were polite and courteous, in spite of the photographer's obvious disappointment at being asked to refrain from taking photographs on the Bus Station without a permit.

Gloomy skies over West Bromwich as photography is not allowed

Our policy states that anyone wishing to take photographs of buses whilst on the bus station should in the first instance request a permit from Centro.

This implies asking in advance at Centro HQ. It would seem from the experience of the person who brought this up that you can’t do this on the day. No policy is seemingly available on the Centro website. How, then, does someone know of it?

Through the application and granting of permits, we can be satisfied that anyone wishing to take pictures on Centro controlled bus stations are made aware of safe areas and restricted areas and given assistance by staff to access better vantage points in a safe manner.

But can Centro be satisfied that there shall be total compliance? Assistance to access better vantage points in a safe manner:this appears to be a positive reason for gaining a permit. But, where are these “better vantage points”?

Whilst I understand many bus photographers consider themselves to be conversant in health and safety issues and risk assessments, we do experience problems with members of the public and representatives of the media, etc, who actually access the carriageways within the Bus Station in order to take 'the best picture'. Whilst I clearly recognise that this type of behaviour varies from individual to individual, I am sure you will recognise that whatever arrangements are in place, have to be applied to everyone.

There you have it. The few spoiling it for the many. But does the permit system really prevent someone stepping out of line when unsupervised? Especially the media: they will be in and out before you can say “Rupert Murdoch”. What this tries to do is absolve Centro from any claim in the event of an incident.

It is in meeting our duty of care to the public in general and following our assessment of risk, potentially involved in this type of activity, that the arrangements indicated to you were introduced. Whilst not wishing to spoil the enjoyment of this hobby, I am sure you will recognise the importance of Centro ensuring personal safety whilst on our property and it is for this reason the arrangements are in place.

We will however take on board the points made about staff not understanding fully the process and will give our best endeavours to ensure all ground staff have full understanding of the policy and will be able to communicate this message effectively, avoiding any future frustration or confusion.

Not sure this will avoid confusion. Nevertheless, Centro does not hide behind data protection, anti-terrorism or the “P” word.

If you really must take photographs in dead locations such as bus stations, it seems that in our risk averse culture there is little to do but comply with the likes of Centro, however unreasonable these rules may seem.

But there must be a way of navigating a reasonable way through this.

One way is to allow enthusiasts to make an application on the day rather than in advance. Bus station staff might argue that this wastes valuable operative time but then again their role, presumably, is to ensure health & safety and in all honesty they seem to have little else to do. And, as one person commented on the original post, they do very little to prevent the public walking where they shouldn’t, in any case.

Keeping this to a minimum and making one application at the time of the visit by receiving instruction and signing a form to this effect would seem a compromise. Downloading forms ready beforehand would help. Since it would seem very unlikely indeed that a PTE would allow anyone to leave the public pedestrian area, hi-vis jackets are superfluous.

Alternatively, why not issue a permit that is valid across all Centro bus stations for a specific period, perhaps even up to a year, after which the holder would then need to reapply and be retrained.

New Consultation

There are real fears that yesterday’s announcement that the DfT will shortly be looking at the domestic hours regulations will come at just the wrong time.

Domestic hours are the rules that underpin driving for journeys of less than 50 km.

As the industry is struggling under the weight of recession, a general passenger downturn and, in spite of impossibly low inflation, costs continuing to cause concern, there’s a real worry that the inquiry into domestic hours will result in shorter working weeks, longer breaks… and sharply increasing expenditure. This could inevitably lead to reductions in service as operators find their cost base increasingly with little opportunity of passing this on to its customers. You will recall the similar furore over European hours rules for journeys over 50 km. At the time, there were rumblings that domestic hours needed consideration.

Not that we’re pre-judging the consultation but why else would the DfT wish to consider domestic hours if not to strengthen them?

Unless, of course, there are real concerns regarding driving hours, and breaks.

Apollo 11

See also Big Things 1900-2008

There, I might be a day late, but I’ve fallen into the nostalgic trap over the lunar landing 40 years ago. I wish I’d thought of this post for Monday. The coverage associated with Apollo 11 has made me think of how so very different life was back then...

• Buses were green, red or blue with at least a little cream and paintwork followed the vehicle's mouldings
• Most families had either zero or one car
• The uniform peaked cap was still popular for road crews
• OMO double decks had only recently been permitted
• New bus grant was introduced
• Letters and documents were reserved for the “typing pool” who produced wafer thin carbon file copies
• We worked (or were educated) where we could get to by bus
• Trolleybuses still operated—just
• Regular “rush hour” traffic jams were confined to cities like Southampton
• Double deck half cabs were still popular, the last of which were delivered in England only the year before with open platforms
• Company and garage structures were cumbersome and so very not flat: inspectors, senior inspectors, a chief inspector, traffic clerks, wages clerks, traffic assistants, traffic superintendents, assistant managers, depot managers, assistants to depot managers, traffic managers, assistants to traffic managers, general managers…
• Territorial operators still did good business with private hires, tours and excursions
• Every reasonable depot had its schedules staff
• 36’ single decks were now available but not all companies had staff/union
  agreements to see their full potential
• Children gave up their seats for adults
• Schedules were painstakingly graphed on special car graph paper
• Destination blinds were of linen
• NBC and early PTEs were only seven months old
• The Setright was the most common ticket issuing equipment outside London and the Mets
• Bus seats came with chrome frames
• Running cards or duties were hand written
• We charged 2½d (tuppence ha’penny) for our timetables
• Fares had just begun their inexorable rise
• There was a man at the back of the depot who mended ticket machines

I could go on… just like media reports about Apollo 11…

Long Suffering

I can tolerate most things but the older I get—and I’m not *that* old!—the more I find it hard to suffer or accept teenagers on double decks. I can certainly empathise with long-suffering bus drivers. Apart from the school peak, this is a phenomenon reserved in the main for Saturdays. But with the summer school holidays upon us, any bus at more or less any time could be a target.

Raised voices are one thing and this is usually just over-exuberance. Foul language is quite another. Running around tends to grate and is reserved it seems for the under 13s—or should that read under 13’s? ; )

A relatively recent phenomenon is the playing of music through a mobile phone’s *external* speaker (as opposed to what used to be the boom boom boom of the bass through Walkman headphones or earpieces). This is a pervasive, intrusive, tinny sound. Unlike other habits regarding young people on buses that tend to be reserved for crowds, mobile phone music pollution can be from a solitary uncaring young person of almost any age.

So, how do you tackle this issue? This is likely to be the driver’s responsibility, if he is aware it’s going on in the first place. Most passengers will suffer but obviously not in silence, owing to the background noise. Is it fair on the driver to handle such situations? Will *all* drivers be able to do so with tact? And what if the young person steadfastly refuses to stop or even becomes abusive? 999 is the answer and drivers of most operators are under instruction to call this number at need.

That there is usually no notice warning against the use of mobiles in this doesn’t help. Yet, the last thing we need is *another* negative poster on a bus: where would you stop?

It always strikes me as relatively easy to deal with antisocial behaviour on a train. Fixed calling points, walk-through carriages and a dedicated if over-stretched police force (or community support officers) is one obvious solution. Being at the right place at the right time is almost impossible on the bus network. Mischief on buses is like dog fouling on the street—high in the public’s mind regarding antisocial behaviour but so difficult to target.

Back to the long-suffering bus driver, then...

WhatBus?!

Remember the London Transport intersection map of yore? It showed bus numbers circled at each junction intersection. This made it easy for those unfamiliar to cross central London by bus by comparing numbers at their origin and proposed destination.

TfL’s internet journey planner’s put paid to that and it’s now easy to plug in two points and get the web to do the rest. But this doesn’t always suit your needs. What if you want to find other options nearby to your location? The plethora of TfL’s online maps can help but you have to know where where to look, first.

This is where Whatbus?! might help.

This month, someone from Bethnal Green, London, has plotted each and every London bus route onto Google maps. It’s surprising it’s not been done before. Type in a location or postcode and you can see the routes nearby. You can then do the usual things with Google maps: zoom in & out, slide it around, get a satellite or terrain image. Zooming in particular means Whatbus?! is never indistinct. As usual, Google shows bus stops when you zoom in, though it isn’t infallible.

Plugging the author’s postcode into Whatbus?!, I found that he has the 8, 288 and D3 outside his flat. I don’t appear to be able to do this with TfL.

It seems to me that for the first time, as you click around London, so you can find out which buses pass where, highlighting one in red if you wish it to stand out. Alternatively, pick a single route from the front page.

It might benefit from some general instructions though most people these days are probably savvy enough just to get on with it. There’s a promised mobile application that’s due out, too, for those who need this as they travel.

i Whatbus?!

The Last Word's

im not really amazed that the posts on punctuation have driven so many comments here the post entitled vacuous to date has 18 many of which debate the use of good punctuation especially the apostrophe if this is the only issue the bus industry faces i guess were pretty healthy except that from many a perspective good grammar and punctuation should never be reserved just for the elite among bus operators it should permeate everything an operator does that said i think enough’s been raised regarding punctuation for now and in drawing the debate to a conclusion i reproduce below the rear of one of stagecoachs oxford Tube vehicles with an improper and interloping apostrophe no doubt with the delivery of a fleet or astromegas stagecoach will have an opportunity to address this fuax pas

I’m not really amazed that the posts on punctuation have driven so many comments here. The post entitled “Vacuous” to date has 18, many of which debate the use of good punctuation, especially the apostrophe. If this is the only issue the bus industry faces, I guess we’re pretty healthy. Except that from many a perspective, good grammar and punctuation should never be reserved just for the élite among bus operators, it should permeate everything an operator does. That said, I think enough’s been raised regarding punctuation for now and in drawing the debate to a conclusion, I reproduce above the rear of one of Stagecoach’s Oxford Tube vehicles with an improper and interloping apostrophe. No doubt with the delivery of a fleet or Astromegas, Stagecoach will have an opportunity to address this fuax pas.

Debate

One thing the debate in York shows is that in the teeth of recession First York’s fares rises & service cuts prove that nothing’s really changes in 40 years or more. Same issues, same concerns and the same responses.

In spite of being judged a success for significant ‘big hit’ investment in the early years of the 21st century and its increases in ridership, First York is under attack.

A senior local politician is calling on First to cut fares and halt bus service cuts. Interestingly, the union Unite has condemned this tactic, stating that in these recessionary times, “The company needs to make money to survive; in order to make that money they have to cut their cloth accordingly.”

I could go on about elasticity of demand and the predictable reaction to and consequences of a fares reduction, plus the affect any fares decrease might have on free travel revenue. Ultimately, the politician’s view is resonating with passengers. It’s re-ignited three interlinked debates:

• The way in which the council has seemingly altered the city centre to facilitate FTR;
• The quality of service offered by First; and
• The extent to which (local & national) government should intervene in bus services, on behalf of the people.

There’s no easy answer. There certainly wasn’t 40, 30 and 25 years ago. Then, though, there were significant and hugely increasing amounts of public subsidy supporting whole bus networks. If this is what the people want, they need to ready to pay for it again.

Lower Carbon

Yesterday’s government announcement on carbon reduction is to be welcomed. If we stop treating Planet Earth like a pile of bricks and realise, Gaia like, that it’s a living organism, a sick body if you like requiring care, then action is imperative.

What now needs to happen, when central government issues the pending carbon reduction guidance to local government, is that authorities are empowered to cut transport related carbon emissions. This means real alternatives to the car and the funding to go with it, alongside the government’s investment in greener technology. Only the bus service is placed to meet the change in transport carbon emissions the government wishes to see—34 per cent.

It’s Murder out There

Why has it seemingly taken 18 months to see an expansion of the Treasure Trails bus concept? Treasure Trails sells mystery murder or spy trails that have participants searching for clues. This is usually done on foot or by car but in September 2007 Treasure Trails teamed up with First Devon & Cornwall to offer a trail using on the 14/18 bus (Truro-Penzance/St Ives). Though nothing appears to this effect on First’s regional home page, the Treasure Trails website still advertises the trail free of charge with a First day ticket.

In May, Transdev Yellow Buses has picked this up and offers a murder mystery trail in association with its improved 1A (Bournemouth-Boscombe-Christchurch-Somerford). It’s fictional, before anyone wonders. £5 gets you a trail and you’ll need a £9 day family Yellowcard (if you solve the puzzle collectively). The idea is that you decipher the clues as you hop on and off the 1A.

The trail lasts for four hours plus travel which means, when you’ve finished, you have lots of time left to enjoy your Yellowcard.

An ingenious way of attracting increased leisure traffic? Or at £14 all in, is TYB just getting away with murder?

B’us

If grammar is the road map that aids our travels along the written page, then punctuation is the oil that lubricates the journey.

It’s interesting that there appeared yesterday and on Sunday among the 10 comments on Sunday’s post a couple on the use of the apostrophe. This at the introduction of First Group’s “Save £££s on Bargain Days Out on B’us” campaign. The frivolous use of the apostrophe in B’us is so obviously a gimmick that it might even be cheekily acceptable.

And at least First says you can “Save £££s” rather

than the usual and incorrect representation “£££’s”

Elsewhere, the use or non-use (as inappropriate) of the apostrophe just tends to grate. In the current txt and online culture, it’s probably best not to get too hung up about *personal* grammar misuse. But should organisations and businesses know better? To those who find the phrase “Grandkids day out” mildly offensive, what signal does this send about the enterprise? And not just because the phrase is “grandCHILDREN”—not that this would fit in the space available. We’re not sure a trendy Ikea shopping, lunching, designer shopper would ever use the term “kids”, by the way. Not only do apostrophes give context and aid meaning & understanding, might their misuse be considered as corporate sloppiness? Or at best indifference? Or, doesn’t is matter?

There’s also what appears to be a re-emergence of the 1970s National Bus Company trend towards dropping capital letters for proper names, place names and locations. Sunday’s missing apostrophe is on the back of a trent barton (sic) bus.

And very recent Wilts & Dorset timetables feature some locations that are uncapitalised. Why does Bournemouth Station get the capital treatment when neither Poole nor Boscombe bus stations do not? Why is Sturminster Marshall post office and Sturminster Newton car park uncapitalised?

Lest we get carried away, we need to remember that modern marketing campaigns are highly successful—with or without an apostrophe. Either passengers don’t understand where an apostrophe is required or they don’t care. Or, the service is attractive in other ways that render poorly punctuated copy redundant or superfluous.

Does it says something about us as a nation if we can’t get our apostrophes right? And, as one of the guests said during last night’s Start the Week on Radio 4, what we see is what we begin to believe.

Can Carrying

In the coming years, historians will look back at 2009 as a pivotal year. A combination of recession and over-enthusiasm for a major rail franchise looks set to alter the structure of the bus operating industry. One of England’s transport giants is likely to come tumbling down. Further, they will point to one man who made it happen and carried the can.

Rightly or wrongly, the blame will fall upon Richard Bowker, the former chief executive of the National Express Group, for his group’s over-ambitious bid for the east coast main railway line, subsequent debt and in theory its ‘nationalisation’.

Talk of the Spanish Cosmen family taking a controlling interest in NatEx since NatEx bought out Alsa has passed. There’s a view that things are now irredeemable.

NatEx now views its other bus operations as “non-core assets” and may let them go to help reduce its overall £1.8bil debt. There remains speculation that the vultures are circulating to buy the group’s local bus companies, Travel Dundee and Travel West Midlands, with the possibility that Travel Coventry could even be sold separately. Travel London & Surrey went in May to Ned Rail for £32mil.

This in spite of NatEx shrugging off an earlier unsolicited offer from First. Expect another, better, First offer. You may recall that there was speculation earlier this year that Virgin wished to step in to operate the ECMRL at NatEx’s expense.

Where does all this leave one of England’s Big Five? Potentially no bus operating subsidiaries and, for the biggest rail operator of them all, perhaps even no rail operations, if the government invokes its option to take back other franchises as well as ECMRL.

Meanwhile, this time next week AMPM Travel will add a second route in the west midlands, a half-hourly service from Birmingham to Chelmsley Wood. That it’s initial route is successful in a recessionary, declining market can surely only be at the expense of NatEx West Midlands.

And on the ground in the West Midlands, NXWM continues to exercise those who view its fleet of 20+ year old MCW Metrobus IIs as a poor show. In spite of significant investment in recent months, the operator has been tardy in eliminating completely the dwindling number of Metrobuses that NXWM.

No other Big Five operator could ‘boast’ such a large antiques collection for so long a period. Nice for enthusiasts but hardly 21st century. Rather than carrying them, any new owner would wish to can these buses immediately.

Vacuous?

As operators discover that bus backs are an important marketing tool that should be reserved to sell the bus service and nothing else, designers are becoming more and more creative.

Yet, are we the only ones to feel that the following bus back is just a little vacuous?

Monday—visit Debbie
Tuesday—sale in that designer shop
Wednesday—lunch with Brett
Thursday—a little light shopping
Friday—go to Ikea
Saturday—grandkids day out [where’s that apostrophe?]
Sunday—shop, of course

Shopping on four days out of seven? There *must* be more to life.

Sundays seem especially lacking in any meaning. Whatever happened to a late breakfast accompanied by Melodies for You on the Light Programme; the call of church bells; the smell of a slowly roasting beef joint; a stroll in the park; the burble of a Morris Minor’s long stroke during a spin in the country; and high tea on the lawn? No, it has to be shops, of course… plus a Big Mac, fries and regular Coke.

Hot and Bothered

I guess most people reading this will know that we’ve had a fine and often sunny May and June. Cooler now, it’s hot work behind the wheel and, these days, the traditional avenue of cooling down has been closed off to drivers: they need to keep the service entrance doors closed, unless stationary. How often do you see buses with their doors open in service, these days? Rarely. Newer buses have interlocks to make quite sure doors remain shut while in transit.

Still, it could be worse. Those who remember cramped half-cab driving conditions with engines next to the driver will know how uncomfortable a summer shift used to be. Hot? Blistering. And noisy to boot.

The hot weather seemed to result in an increase in the number of drivers who rested their right wrist on the open driver’s cab window, with the hand reposing limply in the air stream. We’re not sure whether this cools the driver off sufficiently but driving one handed is never good practice, even if the punters rarely see it. Modern automatic buses are easier to drive than their half-cab ancestors but they also tend to accelerate and move quicker. With only one hand on the wheel, the driver loses valuable seconds in the event of an incident where he might need to steer and this is of concern and bother just as much as was the heat.

Eccentricities

It’s 20 years ago this month that the old eccentricities of Barton Transport were taken over by the new ones of Wellglade, Trent’s holding company.

Trent Barton: keeping up the tradition of eccentricity

In the days of municipal, PTE and nationalised bus fleets, Barton Transport was Britain’s largest independent operator (once Lancashire United was taken over), running at its prime over 300 buses & coaches. In the same way that post-deregulated Trent Barton was to astound us all quite literally in a variety of ways, the Barton family had been doing so for much of their company’s life. And none more so than in the early- to mid-1970s with the eye-opening and almost universal adoption of the standard coach bodied dual purpose vehicle as its standard.

This was in the shape of AEC Reliances (while available), Leyland Leopards and even Bedford YRQs, with Duple and particularly Plaxton Panorama Elite Express bodies. This latter body type was among the best ever designed in Britain but it was odd to see such high numbers on what were at the time called stage carriage services, the more so since the destination indicator was below the windscreen.

All bodies came with New Bus Grant specified wide, driver controlled, two leaf automatic doors. Barton Transport’s order in 1973 for a staggering 145 such vehicles flooded the area with something of a little luxury comparable then to the current Trent Barton initiatives today, including modern investment in Café Nero-style interiors. Even in an era well before easy access, you could forgive Barton for buying vehicles with such steep steps while others weren’t just being low framed Bristol REs or Leyland Nationals but high framed Bristol LHs.

The Bartons, aka “The Family”, were indeed known to be an eccentric bunch—reported as lacking leadership & discipline in an ill-managed business. Well before the dual purposes, Barton bought vehicles that were highly appointed, often unusual and they even had a First World War Daimler extended to 40ft. They owned half of another quaint operator, South Notts of Gotham (goat ham), till Nottingham City Transport took over in 1991.

Focusing on the Passenger

Passenger Focus has nine months till it begins in earnest its statutory representation of bus passengers. In its current shadow form, it’s already building up its strength (staff in three pilot areas), its research and its involvement with the wider industry. Passenger Focus will be uniquely funded and resourced.

Where does that leave Bus Users UK? The National Federation of Bus Users as was relies largely on sponsorship from the industry itself. First Group has already indicated that it is no longer able to support BUUK, citing the current economic conditions. In the light of the recession and the statutory role of Passenger Focus, might others follow suit? Without such industry sponsorship, BUUK will be weakened to the point that it may need to scale back. It cannot possibly rely solely on the subscription of its membership.

The role for this eclectic body of grass roots bus users isn’t likely to diminish unless Passenger Focus takes over BUUK’s role on the Bus Appeals Body. There are currently no plans to make this body statutorily accountable. Whereas Passenger Focus will undoubtedly widen its mammoth rail market research to include the bus side, it’s unlikely to be geared up to hold the plethora of bus surgeries across the country. These benefit real and regular passengers though occasionally they simply frustrate them (when the answer is “no”). Surgeries are nevertheless patchy. There is no reason why, for example, bus companies and indeed transport authorities cannot undertake this role themselves.

At present, Passenger Focus is using BUUK in partnership. BUUK benefits from a number of senior people with wide bus experience (e.g. Gavin Booth and Stephen Morris). How long will it be before Passenger Focus overtakes and indeed eclipses BUUK?

Role for Taxis

Today is likely to see the Conservative party launch a policy aimed at transforming rural travel. Taking out the party politics of it all, the plan is to offer demand responsive or semi-demand responsive taxis to remote rural areas. Given the possible proposed funding, could this be as significant in policy terms as the Transport Act 1985?

The first comment to make is that public transport in rural areas isn’t as bad as people perceive it to be. True, there may no longer be the evening departure home (traditionally as late as 2130!) or even an early morning service (how well are such buses used even in urban areas?).

If you happen to live on an inter-urban bus route, you probably have a half decent bus service or better. There are still many rural areas that can sustain a regular bus service to their nearby town, with or without direct subsidy, and perhaps operating at marginal cost on the back of a school bus or two. Education transport is still the key to rural bus service provision as it has been for 40 years since the National Bus Company famously introduced the idea of marginal costing and the peak vehicle requirement. Park the larger vehicle up during the day between schools and you squander a resource.

But that doesn’t mean everyone’s adequately served. The answer has to be something more flexible (this is not new—we are already seeing examples of these), not only for those who wish to continue living in the country beyond their driving licence expiry but also to reach increasingly decentralised health care provision, for example. And this is the second comment. Flexible services operated by smaller more realistically vehicles cannot run in isolation. They, too, need to have links with education transport. And why not health? Getting non-patient emergency transport on board’s been something of a transport holy grail. Too often, the various components of the health sector have been unwilling to play.

Thirdly, sometimes where flexible services have been tried they’ve proven to be quite costly and not always cheaper than a small bus at marginal cost. There’s evidence that some of these services are being replaced by fixed services as cutbacks.

And fifthly, there needs changes to the way in which the taxi industry operates. Too often, taxi firms cannot see the benefits of such operation or when they do they price expensively. It’s not in the nature of the taxi business to operate to a flexible schedule. Taxi firms therefore need nurturing. Will there also need to be changes to the law to ensure that passengers can more easily use private hire vehicles on semi-fixed routes? PHVs are often the bedrock of taxi provision in rural areas.

Shocking

It must’ve been, oh, 17 years ago that I found myself, in a more junior position, in front of an audience answering questions on school buses and commercial services carrying pupils. One questioner was something locally to do with some sort of federation of parent-teachers associations. She asked whether operators made a profit from school transport.

You betcha!

She was shocked, genuinely believing that operators should provide such services at cost, as a community payback. For those elements under contract, perhaps my company wasn’t getting as much as we would’ve liked but certainly more than the authority for whom the buses were under contract was really happy to pay. That was in the days when operators were more concerned about mileage than margins. Things have changed.

In fact, things indeed move on. I came face to face with the same person last week. She is now a senior local politician. The item under discussion was safety on public transport. She had a further question. When were problems of driver abuse most acute: mid-evening when there might be brickings (my word), after the last bus at 2300 or during the Friday/Saturday and Saturday/Sunday night buses?

None!

Problems were at their worst between 1515 and 1615 during the afternoon school peak.

Once again, she was shocked.

Preservation Progress

See also Every motorist in the UK should spend a day behind the wheel of a bus...

The rally season’s in full swing and I’m not adverse to admiring an old bus or two. I’ve been to Showbus a couple of times and if the weather’s right, I might even be seen heading to Winchester on 1 January.

I do appreciate those who have the patience to restore and preserve our transport heritage. But what always strikes me most is the different skills sets required to drive older buses. No power steering sometimes meant you almost had to stand to drag your bus at low speed around tight radii. Crash boxes were a real test of stamina & competence, especially from start & slowing through the box. Cramped & noisy utilitarian cabs and hot front engines tested your endurance. Minimalist mirrors gave minimum rear visibility.

How did anyone ever manage to get through a test? Time was when the right sort of raw recruit could fly through what was then called a class 1 PSV in less than two weeks. The type of person exceptionally had the physical ability for a non-power steering bus but also the correct mental attitude. From day one, they could judge length and width but also know instinctively, for example, when and when not to cut a line. After successfully passing, a coupe of weeks of garage training and they could be entrusted with a bus of their own.

If learning through an operator scheme now, the process is likely to be two to three months, including theory test and garage training. This in spite of the buses themselves being “easier” to handle. It’s extended because of the requirements of the test have changed via EU Directive 2003/59 and the Initial Qualification requirement (CPC).

It’s still quite possible to find a specialist training company that will offer a five day intensive practical course (or thereabouts) with a test at the end but that means you need to have your theory tests under your belt first. It means pouring over a thick theory test manual and practising in your own time. And the trouble with intensive courses is you are left without that valuable garage training at the end of the process. It’s an essential element. It means you don’t take out a vehicle on your own till you are judged absolutely ready to deal with the public.

Little wonder that in some areas there’s a paucity of new recruits. If shift work wasn’t off putting enough, the time taken to get on the road is just as damaging. At least the recession has balanced those who are now discouraged with those who are more desperate for work.

It seems that as the physical demands of driving a bus may have reduced, the mental ability required hasn’t in any way diminished. If anything, it’s increased. The next time you climb into the comfortable cab and slap your Mercedes or your Volvo or your Scania into ‘drive’, taking off with (bad practice) one hand on the wheel, remember how difficult it once was to take a bus around the twists and turns and obstructions of a housing estate, without working up a sweat. Then, you can really admire those preservationists who have earned the right to drive their beloved buses.

Express Yourself

You have till 24 July 2009 to complete the first round of documents in the initial expressions of interest regarding Plymouth council’s potential disposal of its Citybus operation.

The council is looking to place a true value on Citybus and see what kind of interest it receives. Our view is that the interest and value will be high.

My guess is that the disposal advert would naturally have appeared in Transit magazine. That particular avenue is of little use now that New Transit has reduced from fortnightly to monthly. So, it appeared in routeONE (and in the Plymouth press).

Meanwhile, opposition to the sale grows, with a demonstration to be held tomorrow outside of the council chambers, and a petition said to have more than 15,000 signatures will be handed in at the next full council on 3 August when there will be a further protest. Protesters intend to ask questions of the council.

Citybus will now undergo an independent 'due diligence' audit in order to assess its value. The council will then share this sensitive commercial data with any interested parties. There are understood to be four so far, even before the advert appeared.

A letter in the local newspaper, The Herald, suggests that Citybus’ profit margin is 4-6 per cent whereas larger operators are content with not less than 15 per cent. The letter contends that significant extra subsidy would be required to operate services likely to be withdrawn upon a sale. This might include the significant number of double deck school buses Citybus supplies. The correspondent feels that the additional subsidy required could drain the sale receipts in as little as five years.

This, of course, is the “social dividend” argument. But one way or another, the council is “subsidising” loss making bus services—in this case, by accepting an unnaturally low dividend in exchange for the potential for a reduced subsidy bill.

And a reduction in subsidy is currently the Plymothian name of the game for, from today, the council introduces its cost-saving measures aimed at taking a £200,000 slice out of the bus service budget. Interestingly, the council has published a 32 page timetable showing all *subsidised* services only.

Those expressing an interest in Citybus will probably not be put off by such a swinging cutback.

In an unscientific survey here, three quarters of respondent felt that now wasn’t the right time to sell Citybus.

For more on the sale and cutbacks, see Plymothian Transit.

Fighting On

I suppose it’s because, deep down, most of us like a little scandal. So it is that in spite of no one ever hearing of Bankfoot Buses of Perth, Scotland till this spring, this week’s Coach & Bus Week devotes as many pages to the operator's Transport Tribunal appeal as it did to the Welsh traffic commissioner’s decision over Cardiff Bus.

You will recall that colourful Bankfoot Buses lost its operating licence following a public inquiry and defiantly carried on operating a free bus service, in other words not for hire or reward. The revocation followed a string of allegations.

The tribunal has now upheld Bankfoot’s appeal, ordering a re-hearing before a deputy traffic commissioner. The basis of the tribunal’s decision was a presumption that an operator should always be able to make representations before disqualification. It seems that in spite of Bankfoot claiming never to have seen the PI call up letter, the recorded delivery letter was signed for. The operator could not remember receiving a second letter regarding its application to increase its vehicle authorisation from three to seven, to be heard at the same PI. Further, on the day, the clerk failed to offer by phone the opportunity for Bankfoot to apply for an adjournment if Bankfoot felt they had genuinely not received a letter or letters.

This has clear implications for future PIs. And clerks tend to be rather junior civil servants who may now need more training, seniority or both.

The tribunal was clear that Bankfoot’s transport manager had much to explain regarding Bankfoot’s conduct… and that he should be afforded the opportunity of doing so.

Meanwhile, not surprisingly, Bankfoot has withdrawn its free service. That it lasted so long till 23 May is itself amazing.

Euro IV and V v Hybrid

Three cheers for the reinvented new New Bus Grant. It’s only been over 20 years since old New Bus Grant ceased.

The government has announced up to £30mil worth of biddable grants towards new buses, provided the new stock reduces emissions and improves air quality significantly. This, the government says, will give a fillip to manufacturers at a time of recession and cement the UK as the leading manufacturer of low carbon buses.

Because of the need to reduce emissions significantly, there’s a strong suspicion that new New Bus Grant will be achievable only through hybrid technology. Anything that assists in hybrid development is welcomed but to date it hasn’t proven itself. How likely outside London are fleet operators to invest in hybrid just at this point in time?

Nevertheless, the government is right to go for broke regarding hybrids. The more that are manufactured, the lower the costs will fall and the more reliable they will become. We all said the same thing about low floor buses: too expensive, too technical and no market but as soon as production numbers accelerated, costs fell in proportion.

The current European exhaust emissions standards have done their bit in terms of reducing emissions and there’s very little left that manufacturers can squeeze out of a standard diesel engine.

For example, compared to Euro II, Euro III (from 2001) reduced both particulates and NOx each by about a quarter. Euro IV (2006) knocked out some 80 per cent of particulates out. When Euro V formally comes in late this year, in practical terms it makes little difference to particulate emissions.

Which means we need a step change: the low carbon buses on which the government has its eye are said to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions by 30 per cent.

A Little Paranoid, Perhaps?

I received an email this week from someone who wishes to remain anonymous. It was about bus station photography. I reproduce below most of that email plus an accompanying photo. We have asked Centro for comments and will let you know what they say...

I was interested to read your most recent post on a sensible industry approach to bus photography, where you say that jobsworths have in the past made life difficult for enthusiasts.

On a recent trip south I decided to leave the M5 motorway at junction 9 to find my way to West Bromwich where National Express West Midlands had recently employed some new Scanias. I stumbled upon Wednesbury and took some photos in the small bus station. It wasn’t long before a Centro employee asked to see my permission. I had none and he asked me to stop photographing. He could give no reason other than it was “policy”.

¡Verboten! One of the new West Midlands Scanias captured clandestinely in Wendesbury

The same happened in West Bromwich bus station, even though I was standing at the very fringe of it. This time, the Centro man said it was because of data protection. I questioned this and he immediately changed his mind to health & safety. At least he didn’t mention terrorism or the “P” word. He maintained that Centro required notice of a visit so they could ensure an enthusiast had a hi-vis jacket and, upon arrival, were shown the bus station exits.

Well, I’ve been in the industry for too many years to know when and where it’s unsafe to watch buses! I do fail to see why someone who would keep to the public area would need hi-vis personal protective equipment. It’s not a bus *garage*. As far as I could see, passengers were not required to wear such garments and they, too, kept to such areas. They were actually at more risk in no man’s land between the safety of Centro’s property to the responsibility of the bus operator.

As for knowing where the exits are, I trust that passengers, too, have to undergo such training.

I come originally from near Liverpool. I don’t recall any calls at Merseytravel for general hi-vis PPE following a passenger death at Queen’s Square bus station in 2004. The woman in question was crossing the bus station at a recognised point. The issue here is that she was not an enthusiast.

The West Bromwich supervisor suggested that I move to just outside the bus station. By “forcing” me off the premises to the public highway to take pictures, I actually consider I was more at risk in negotiating the traffic, pelican crossings and dodging the pedestrian perimeter fencing.

I must say that both supervisors were polite and well mannered, if may be not so well briefed. Their action still left a distasteful feeling, though.

Why this paranoia on the part of the PTEs? Why aren’t smaller bus station operators such as councils so cautious, I wonder?

Whatever Happened to the MBO?

Have you noticed that during this century’s sale of municipal arms length operators no one has mentioned a management buyout? This is not surprising. In Eastbourne Buses’ case, for example, the business was too fragile for managers to contemplate one. Elsewhere these days, a MBO was or is a risky business, which will inevitably result in fares increase and or service cuts to service a hefty loan—the sort of problems that anti-privatisers predict will happen should a company slip from arms-length municipal ownership. As fewer decent independents survive, prices escalate for their control. The business as a whole is likely to be better off in the hands of an outside bidder rather than struggling at the hands of debt-laden existing managements. Plymouth council is currently valuing its arms length operator. The council has already hinted it will only consider expressions of interest at over £5mil. This, we suspect, rather leaves Plymouth Citybus’ three directors out of play.

As you might expect, the sale proposals in Plymouth are sharply divided along political lines. The anti-sale campaign has gained a huge momentum, very quickly. There can be no guarantees that the council will even sell but at least First Group will express an attractive interest. Were Plymouth’s Ladbrooke’s to open a book, the favourite would probably be First. Will First offer over the odds simply to ensure a rival doesn’t establish itself in its back yard?

The other business on the lips of locals is a consortium headed by local Taxifast, successful in fringe bus service operations whose leading proponent was associated strongly with the privatisation of Western National. Again, Ladbrooke’s may have a view. Can such a local consortium realistically outbid the global transport players (especially First) while maintaining its stated aim of improving services and reducing fares?

MBOs used to be so easy, but that was over 20 years ago. You needed little capital of your own and, if you had a sound business plan, you could expect a warm welcome from an investment bank. At the sale of the National Bus Company, there wasn’t the initial inflationary interest from large dominant operators (such groups grew out of subsequent consolidations). Initial kickstart prices meant that early NBC sales were undervalued, which meant investment banks rarely could lose. That’s why nearly two thirds of NBC sales—especially at the early stages—went to managements.