It Says it All

A very interesting graph appeared in a recent edition of routeONE magazine. It shows bus sales over the period 1975-2008. Although the Gen1 minibus is missing, it nevertheless offers quite an incite into our industry and how manufacturing output mirrors on-the-ground operations (quite logically, of course). We do what routeONE did not—take a canter through the years.

• The period 1975 to 1977 saw a modest rise in the number of buses built. Note the dominance of the single deck (green area) but very healthy double deck sales. All this was on the back of the successful New Bus Grant. Influencing single deck purchases was partly in response to the National Bus Company buying the Leyland National, out of necessity (company mantra) and need (no longer requiring double decks in quite the same quantity).
• By 1979, sales dropped to 1975 levels.
• There was a steep climb to 1980. Why? The New Bus Grant, in existence from 1969 to modernise fleets was in 1980 about in be cut in half, with further reductions in the years to its phase out, in 1985. This resulted in a rush.
• After 1980, the industry cut its orders back sharply. This was a time of recession (1980-2)Note, however, that while double decks certainly fell, single deck orders dived. This was the era of MAP during which time NBC, Scottish Bus Group and some municipals re-evaluated their needs, realised they could reduce their PVR by operating deckers—and ordering accordingly.
• After 1983/4’s two years of modest growth, the manufacturing sector all but collapsed, as the uncertainties of the soon-to-be deregulated operating market took over.
• The industry reached its low point in 1987 when, apart from not shown minibuses, few vehicles were manufactured.
• The climb out of the pit started soon after. It was hesitant. 1989 was a better year but uncertainties continued and the market again dropped away.
• As operators realised that Gen1 minibuses were unable to cope with peak loadings, there came the birth of the midibus (red area). By 1989, this was significantly the largest vehicle length/size being delivered.
• The period to 1992 saw orders fall again. Newly privatised operators were not in a strong enough position to bulk order, some were extending existing vehicle lives, while others were putting orders off pending decisions on company sales.
• The following years saw steadily increasing volume production, as larger groups began investing, thanks to greater stability. This peaked in 2000. The proportion of single decks was increasing at the expense of double decks but the proportion of midibuses was eclipsing all. They replaced minibuses but also larger vehicles, as passenger numbers fell. By now, in fact, the midibus was completely dominant, and all from a standing start in 1987.
• The years to 2007 saw a general decline in output but, interestingly, were generally at about the same levels in 1975-1980.
• Here, again, the midibus was dominant and by a considerable margin, establishing itself as the vehicle of choice, and remaining relatively constant compared to other chassis types or lengths. As city fleets dispensed with double decks, deckers were significantly down on 1980 and by 2007, even at their peak, and output was less than half that in 1980.
• Note the surge in orders in 2008, fuelled by ridership increases, including free travel, following a couple of good years for the industry. This led to manufacturer confidence and the hiring of permanent and temporary labour, something that has resulted in threatened or actual cut backs of late.

As for 2009, orders placed towards the end of 2008 mean that the graph will steady and not in much decline. 2010, however, is not looking rosy...