Bus operators will now be considering just what the possible swine flu pandemic might mean to them. It's now certain to reach Britain and things could move fast. Operators will be reviewing their plans for business continuity.
We knew there’d be a pandemic flu outbreak at some point, though conventional wisdom suggested this might be bird not swine flu. If the worst happens, what might the pattern of demand be like in the short term?
Experience as far back as a 1957 pandemic seems to suggest that 50 per cent of school children suffered. I wonder, then, how likely it is that pupils will go to school, even if schools are open in the first place. If schools aren’t open, it’s similarly likely that parents will need to take time off and won’t be travelling. Getting to work will probably not be a high priority. Neither will shopping, even for food (in the short term).
In any case, it’s likely that government advice will be to avoid social contact in large groups. The need for travel is therefore likely to diminish (in the short term). That’s all supposing there are fuel deliveries for operators. And it also supposes that driving and maintenance staff are able to turn in, in the first place. Absenteeism may be high through ill health.
It’s impossible to plan fully for a potential major incident such as this but there are steps that an operator might reasonably consider. Fuel contingency is one. Identifying emergency levels of service is another. Monitoring and reviewing staff in terms of vulnerable groups to attack is another. Being ready to work with emergency planners at the local authorities and police is a fourth. Planning for the personal safety of those behind the cab is certainly not least.
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Major Incident Planning
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3 comments:
It's not an easy option, whatever operators decide. And it will effect everyone who has access to the public.
I'm a letting agent, self employed, and regardless of what happens, I can't afford to take time off. So I will have to carry on working.
If fuel and contact with members of the public becomes an issue, how will I react to this. Can't afford to stop, and I suspect that neither can the bus operators.
As far as emergency service levels are concerned, the one thing I would hope would be for operators to be pragmatic and eliminate all route duplication, in order to provide skeleton services to the broadest range of places possible.
Unfortunately I can envisage a situation where, for instance, both W+D and TYB would abandon virtually the whole of the rest of their networks for potentially a very lengthy period, whilst both continuing to run their competing m/c/3 groups of routes, with neither side willing to back down.
I really hope this situation does not arise, as IMO it would be totally unacceptable.
And there is also the issue of passengers choosing to change modes away from bus/train. Why should I be cooped up with strangers who might sneeze over me or breathe on me?, goes the thinking. Issuing face masks on the bus sounds extreme, but would it give some reassurance.
Not that we are anywhere near that position yet, and I hope that we never get there, but this sort of thing does concentrate the mind.
And factor in the public's ability to panic and who knows...
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