The Three Rs

2009. How will we cope? We’ll see Regulation, Reform and Part 1: Recession...

Part 1. Recession

The transport industry was initially fairly buoyant that recession would pass it by. There were reports that rising fuel prices were increasing passengers on buses. Then… the retail pump price crashed. Then... Brian Souter sounded the alarm about his company’s rail franchises. Last month, he referred to the recession as “enormous”. National Express wasn’t far behind. First Group stayed calmer. Last month, Moir Lockhead used the term “immune”. Perhaps that’s because First can fall back on secure stateside yellow school bus contracts. And it has large bus interests over here. Bus still appears to be fairing better than rail.

Yet, shareholders will not be keen on NatEx and Stagecoach December losses. Both fell respectively by about 25 and 20 per cent, though both recovered… slightly. And First, Arriva and Go Ahead each fell by over 10 per cent. Unprecedented this may have been. Bumpy it certainly was.

Still, the optimist in me remains. The industry’s been through many a recession and survived. Not without some pain, of course. The industry’s been through a spiral of passenger decline pretty much throughout the last 55 years, whether times have been good or bad. Currently, though, it’s the fittest it’s even been, on the back of some remarkable bus growth. And we have to say, free travel. Now isn’t the time to write off the bus industry quit yet. Recession is just one of the challenges it will need to face up to in 2009. And when (not if) the ordinary motorist is faced with escalating pump prices, the industry needs to capitalise on its advantage.