Revolution, Nightmare, Milltstone?

Exactly one week to go. That’s how long we all have to accustom ourselves to national free travel (in England). It’s a revolution for those who will enjoy it. It’s a nightmare for those who need to administer it. And it’s a millstone for too many operators who need to run with it. Added to which, its effects are very uncertain for all parties (including would be passengers – who may face full buses on some routes or cuts in service on others). The uncertainties mount if you operate from or into a so-called ‘honeypot’ (like Bournemouth and Poole). And that’s in spite of extra money promised for major tourist areas.

Operators were moved to lodge over 100 appeals against the local free transport schemes in place in England since 2006, some of which were either late in being resolved or won’t be till after national free travel begins. Operators either have made or are contemplating service cuts. As the CPT said, ‘There is a very real danger that the most visible effect of the government’s generosity to older and disabled people will be a substantial shrinking of England’s bus network’. Not a good start?

Operators whose fuller buses are losing them money blame local authorities for inequitable funding. Local authorities trying to live within spending targets blame the government at a time when free travel budgets have grown considerably (and will continue to: witness Scotland over eight years). The government insists that there is sufficient extra funding being pumped into the system to cope with free travel (so by default is blaming the local authorities). Passengers can’t see the sense in any of these arguments. And who really knows who's right or wrong?

Given that appeals suggest that local struggling schemes cannot be capped to the available budget, local authorities will presumably need to make savings elsewhere. Given the obvious problems in cutting education and social services funding, are economies most likely to boomerang on operators and passengers? Will this result in reduced subsidy or reduced concessionary add-ons (such as early morning free travel, free travel for carers, railcards or tokens/vouchers for other modes)? Remember Nexus in 2006? May be this revolution may well revolve on those very passengers it aims to help.