First Future

Yesterday we had four letter F words. Now it’s a five letter one.

Just what *is* First to do with it’s Devon & Cornwall subsidiary?

First D& C was officially warned over its vehicle maintenance, at the recently published results of its 12 April 2006 public inquiry. Not as serious as the punishments meted out to some subsidiaries, but bad enough. Details on Plymothian Transit.

And then there’s the Devonian & Cornish £2.5mil loss – and possibly more, according to rumours.

Given these issues, the big question is – should First sell? It could, but probably won’t. Here’s why…

• To sell would mean First may lose face. It’s never yet sold one of its subsidiaries. Far better to try to turn D&C around, under new MD (and former Bournemouth Yellow Buses employee, it must be added) Marc Reddy.


• The network’s been so reduced and the geographic gaps so enlarged that selling it as an integral unit might be difficult. If it’s to go, perhaps the way forward is retain the good, selling the under-performing areas.


• If there *was* a piecemeal carve up, would smaller operators have the capacity to take on services? The days when Cornwall alone boasted significant smaller operators interested in local bus services are long gone – save for two recent exceptions.


• These two independent “big boys” may also think twice before buying First, or parts thereof – there’d need to be a significant vehicle replacement programme, which might prove just too much in terms of capital investment.
  

In other words, would there be anyone willing to buy?

Of course, First could just abandon under-performing Cornwall and north Devon. That would cause some problems for Cornwall county council. Even though they’ve pruned back and pruned again, this just isn’t First’s style. And that doesn't sit comfortably with its newly won rail franchise. But it would leave itself the Plymouth rump – not that Plymouth is necessarily profitable, these days. It’s an open secret that First is courting Plymouth council over the Citybus business. Any combined operation would be highly prized. But would the city council prefer to go down the competitive Bournemouth route, if indeed it’s interested in divesting?

Conclusion? Everyone has an interest in First's recovery in Devon & Cornwall, including First itself. There's no reason to doubt this'll happen.