Straws & Camels’ Backs

Could the shortage of bus drivers be coming to an end?

The lack of drivers is a problem facing the whole industry, rural and urban. Yes, there are pockets where the situation’s better than elsewhere but it’s one of general pessimism.

Trade journal routeONE speculated last month that that lost mileage owing to staffing problems had hit an all-time low. Better pay in some areas plus the importing of East European drivers were helping the situation.

But there’s a new fear, now. Well, not exactly new but cyclical. More and more councils seem on the point of reducing their spend on bus services. The spectre of cuts has not been around for the last five years. Now they’re back. Cuts tend to be at the margin and obviously don’t affect commercial services - until the viability of such services becomes threatened as the supported network base is weakened.

Marginal changes these cuts may be but they do affect semi-variable and variable costs. This means drivers. Cut all Sunday or evening or rural services, for example, and you lose a small but significant percentage of mileage. That reduces the number of shifts required. The pressure begins to ease on driver staffing levels.

There’s a further threat linked to the withdrawal of Sunday or evening mileage. If you rely on buses and you suddenly find that you need to make alternative arrangements because you no longer have a Sunday service, you will be more included to use that alternative for the rest of the week. The commercial industry then loses five return trips worth of revenue, every week. Cuts in Sunday services may therefore have far more of an effect than planners think.

Such a disproportionate effect may therefore damage the garage, the company, and drivers’ jobs. A case of the straw breaking the camel’s back? Not good news for drivers. Taken to its logical conclusion, the shortage may end in a glut.