The Driver’s Moll

There she was, an early 20-something girl on the platform at the terminus, her hand vainly trying to poke outside the open doors in a futile attempt to keep her cigarette smoke from entering the vehicle. Giggling she was, to a fairly nonplussed driver who must’ve been at least 15 years her senior. And then it occurred to me. How successful we’d been at banishing the groupie girl from the platform.

Once upon a time, these nymphs seemed all too common. Certain drivers had the charm or the presence to attract what might be seen, in their eyes, as welcome attention from the opposite sex. It was like bees to jam or iron filings to a magnet. Or, it was the other way round. Some girls would see the driver as an easy target, a sitting duck, someone who couldn’t escape, no matter what.

I’m not for one moment suggesting that things were anything other than appropriate or that they got out of hand, so to speak. But the fact was that this sort of thing was quite commonplace, either at a terminus or, worse, while the vehicle was moving. It obviously still happens but in seeing this event it hit me that it was now much rarer than it used to be. I would add that this particular bus wasn’t one of mine.

In spite of those recruitment adverts that proclaim that you get to meet people while driving a bus, the job can actually be very isolating in nature. Yes, you *do* (or should!) happen upon countless people but these are brief and superficial encounters. When someone pays you some attention, it’s difficult not to be flattered. But a passenger on the platform sends all sorts of wrong signals to others on the bus. It potentially adversely affects safety. And it’s against the regs (while the vehicle is in motion).

Oh, and have they actually paid a fare?

Thank you for your positive comments on Sunday’s post. One reader wondered about “hits”. If you’re interested, I’ve responded here.

Fares Surprise

The fares goss at the moment is all about Stagecoach coming out tops in the recent TAS published information on fares—especially the cost of weekly commuting by Stagecoach. Stagecoach is rightly trumpeting this fact.

But the real issue is the fact that, actually, the whole industry should congratulate itself in being able to peg its fares under inflation. It’s a remarkable feat. TAS’ recent survey builds on work it undertook in 2009 and it has concluded that a “typical” three-mile journey average fare has been put up from £1.74 in 2009 to £1.91 in 2011. That’s a 9.8 per cent increase whereas, over the same period, RPI comes in at 10.1 per cent. OK, so the difference is just -0.3 per cent but it’s on the right side.

And this ignores the inflationary way in which fares increases tend, through necessity, to be calculated: they are usually rounded up to the nearest whole 10p, to avoid change issues in dealing in coppers or five pence pieces. Rounding can mean an increase of more than inflation. So, I really think most of us can take a pat on the back for this news.

I doubt very much, however, that passengers will believe this good fares information. I doubt they will see their fares as increasing below inflation, whether they live in an area (or with an operator) prone to larger increases or not. Passengers will see things differently. Perhaps that’s because historically fares *have* increased ahead of general inflation and for some considerable time.

In order to keep pace with costs during a period of long-term passenger decline it’s inevitable that fares will increase higher than inflation. Most operators, most of the time, prefer increasing fares than reducing mileage (though there comes a point where they have to do both).

Indeed, industry costs have tended to increase faster than the RPI. To keep pace, since the mid-1960s, the trend in fares increases has therefore been faster in real terms faster than inflation. Factor in the impact in declining numbers—exacerbated but not initially caused by fares increases—and the cocktail’s a dangerous one. Passengers don’t know this background. They wouldn’t necessarily understand it. Why should they? Pricing is a complex business that will also reflect the level of competition, if any. But passengers do feel a little ripped off, especially as the relative cost of motoring has gone in completely the opposite direction.

It’s just as well that on average about 40 per cent of passenger travel free of charge. At a stroke, this removes the barrier that is fares. But this causes its own problems. And that’s another story. And don’t mention BSOG reductions in April—and the inflationary affect this will have. The next TAS fares survey might be very different.

Bidders Welcome

First Bus is never far from the headlines these days. There’s the question of its rebranding exercise, for one thing. Its TV advert. And news that it wants to prune its UK bus business… but can’t.

All it’s managed to offload so far is King’s Lynn. It ditched Bury St Edmund’s without a sale. But it wants to shift more. As the headline in Passenger Transport reads, “First struggling to find bus business buyers”. Economic conditions are getting in the way. But, were the economy is better shape, it may be that First would want to sell off less than it does. Could be a catch 22.

If this is affecting First, how will it affect other, smaller operators? Speak to independents and, for some of them, they’re reaching crisis point, one perhaps like no other in their histories (particularly if they are a post-1986 start up, as most are, having never experienced bus services in the dark days of the 1970s). The traditional route out is via a sale but this may be difficult at present, which means some smaller operators are stuck because:

• They can’t hedge on fuel like the groups


• Many rely disproportionately on local authority contracts—and we all know that 75 per cent of local transport authorities are forced into making cuts


• They’re about to face a 20 per cent reduction in BSOG, in two months. Opportunities to claw some, any, of this back from beleaguered LTAs is minimal


• The whole industry is experiencing zero growth, as high streets are increasingly under pressure


• Many smaller operators in the tendered arena operate in either more rural or less attractive settings, which leaves little opportunity for passenger growth even in good times—and, with a smaller customer base, less to be gained from fares increases


• Free travel reimbursements don’t cover costs especially, again, in a rural context where free travellers are at saturation and longer distance journeys may mean even poorer reimbursements per passenger

Back to First and the reasons why potential bidders are cautious at the moment align themselves near enough to some of the above. You need to add any competitive pressures First may face (where these exist) and the potential effect of the Competition Commission report. We don’t yet know where the government will take this. And this seems to be a sticking point: simple sales that might’ve gone through on the competition nod a year ago may need OFT guidance.

But, surely, some of First’s potential cast off businesses might be a worthwhile punt, given where they are. With the right management, the only way, surely, is up. Nevertheless, according to Passenger Transport at least, larger disposals are unlikely to go ahead. It could be that First has missed the boat: the previous policy of holding on to its businesses no matter what may have been a folly.

First isn’t saying which businesses (or parts thereof) are potentially for sale. First has, however, intimated that these won’t be in the north or in Scotland. This in spite of business growth there of below one per cent, compared to 3.7 per cent in the south.

So, the $64,000 question is, which parts of First’s huge empire would it like to sell?

• Cornwall? First has followed in Western National & Badgerline footsteps finding this county a tough area of operation. In spite of slamming the door to outside group interests by buying the Truronian business, there’ve continued to be cuts in this area.


• West Wales? The Welsh regional assembly last week announced a significant reduction in both its own BSOG and funding for council bus services—all from April 2012. Does this leave the area west of Swansea (more) vulnerable?


• Rural areas of East Anglia? Following Bury St Edmund’s and King’s Lynn.

2011: a year of statistics

With warmest thanks to readers, commenters, contributors and tipsters, here is the Omnibuses Blog 2011 year in review

Less time spent writing this blog, marginally fewer posts than in previous years but an increased readership and comment levels sum up the Omnibuses Blog in 2011.

From a peak of 175,000 words written in 2010, 2011 weighed in at a mere 148,000 words, about 15 per cent fewer. The reason was that, unlike in 2009 and 2010, in 2011 we didn’t publish on every single day. Indeed, in 2011, there were 346 blog posts. 2011’s word count is still head & shoulders above every other year, though, since records began. I believe this still makes me the single most prolific serious writer on matters buses & bus services… and the least well paid (unpaid, actually).

As a consequence of the marginal reduction in posts, the amount of time I spent on Omnibuses in 2011 fell by about 19 per cent. A little less time in front of the screen is probably no bad thing.

It’s pleasing to note, however, that the number of readers continues to grow. The rate of growth has slacked marginally compared with previous years but it’s still impressive. We received 55 per cent more visits in 2011 than 2010.

42 per cent of readers arrived here because they were specifically looking for the Omnibuses Blog, by direct entry or searching for the blog by name or names. A further 21 per cent stumbled upon it via a search engine, using a range of sometimes unusual search terms. Did general searchers find what they were looking for? Not even Google Analytics can tell me that but, given the increased number of readers, I suppose some must’ve. Other referring sites accounted for 37 per cent and we’ve already looked at two sub-categories of those sites: referrals from other blogs and from general websites.

Of the 15,869 keywords or key phrases used as search terms, the most popular were Omnibuses; Omnibuses Blog & its variations; Fotopic problems; Phil Stockley blog; Dash Coaches; Dorset Sprinter; First Bus blog (is there one? Don’t think so); and Optare. See also the revealing Fotopic graph. It’s interesting that even some of the most esoteric search terms attracted multiple visits. Previous favourites such as Erica Roe came in at no. 24 and Mercedes 608 at no. 39. Perhaps Erica is generally less prominent now than before… but somehow we doubt it.

Google continues to bring in 91 per cent of all those who arrived via a search engine and, here, there’s been no change.

Internet Explorer now accounts for just 45 per cent of those who arrive here. In 2010, it was 53 per cent. Firefox stands at 23% (25% in 2010); Chrome at 15% (8%); and Safari 13% (9%). Numbers arriving via a mobile device has shot up 225 per cent since 2010 but still represents only seven per cent of readers. Apple devices bring in about 1.6 times more mobile readers than its nearest competitor, Android.

Finally, a word on punctuality. For those days seeing posts, we aim for something before 0700 on Mondays to Fridays and before 0800 on Saturdays, Sundays and bank holidays (yes, we know we’ve failed today!) There’s no six minute window of grace, here, like on the buses; even one minute late scores down. The traffic commissioners would be pleased. The 2011 punctuality rate was a very creditable 97.7 per cent, a 0.2 per cent improvement on 2010.

Reliability was even better than the target (set low, because I wasn't sure whether I would achieve that many posts).

2011 Punctuality/Reliability	Target	Actual
Reliability (frequency of posting)	74%	94%
Punctuality (before 0700 (0800 SSu)	95%	97.7%

i 2010 in statistics

Colour me Beautiful

The consensus from comments received on yesterday’s post seems to be that First’s new livery, part of its essential rebranding exercise, is as insipid as it is uninspired. How did they manage to get it so wrong? Especially when this was pretty much a one-off opportunity to get it so right.

A couple of people commented, in spite of what is a generally unloved nature of Barbie, that they actually preferred the current offering to the new. Indeed, the photograph of the new livery certainly makes you examine Barbie afresh. Perhaps we no longer notice Barbie for what it is. That willow leaf effect is actually a strong and tasteful motif. It’s stood the test of time.

The problem with Barbie, perhaps, is the colour scheme itself. Neither pink nor white seems to endear itself to the side of a bus. In particular, double decks can look a little bland and characterless with such an amount of white. The blue and pink band beneath the upper deck windows fails to break up the white.

Yesterday, I did say that there was a Barbie variant that I felt had some merit. And, here it is. It’s the Barbie coach livery as adapted for Wright-bodied buses, a livery once worn by those on the Bristol to Bath service.

At the time I posted this picture (regrettably the size of a postage stamp), I felt that it was a livery that worked. The extended area of bold navy was a strong colour that lent the livery some emphasis, authority and meaning. It animated the whole design, giving purpose to the white area towards the bow. Used to help the shift from white to blue, the minimalist pink band added to rather than detracted from the layout. The whole appearance seemed more balanced and colour above the windows also helped achieve a better equilibrium when compared to willow leaf Barbie.

Alas! This wasn’t a livery that was destined to last on service buses. Pity really, as it made a statement and looked modern. Can the same thing be said of the new livery? Only one commenter yesterday felt the new First livery was anything special and that was a rather neutral comment in nature.